Result
2:1
12/12/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Eerste Divisie - Round 20
- Referee: Sturm R. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Netherlands | ESPN Extra |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.25 | 0.98 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 36% | 64% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (222/284) | 84% (437/518) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.25 | 0.98 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.74 | 0.81 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (222/284) | 84% (437/518) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (27/58) | 49% (33/67) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 57% (48/84) | 58% (52/90) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (3/19) | 20% (3/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.64 | 0.94 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 76% (13/17) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.81 | 1.74 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.19 | -0.26 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 33', 1 - 0, Kleinen M. ⚽, Braken S. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 57', Foubert L. ↓, Silva Timas I. ↑,
- 59', 1 - 1, Unuvar E. ⚽, Chourak N. (A),
- 60', Tehubijuluw D. 🟨,
- 61', van der Lans M. ↓, Muzungu M. ↑,
- 70', Tran L. M. ↓, Sy K. ↑,
- 71', Ouazane A. ↓, Nash P. ↑,
- 71', O'Niel D. ↓, Kalokoh D. ↑,
- 78', Reverson P. 🟨,
- 79', 2 - 1, Van Dessel S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 82', Butera E. ↓, van der Vaart D. ↑,
- 83', Vink S. ↓, Wolff K. ↑,
- 86', Amgar A. ↓, Asante D. ↑,
- 86', Verheijen T. ↓, Kassimi A. ↑,
- 90+3', Sy K. 🟨,
Chances of winning
MVV Maastricht
50.9% | Draw
22.4% | Jong Ajax
26.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
MVV Maastricht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in MVV Maastricht's performance.Jong Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jong Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for MVV Maastricht than the current prediction. (-6.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with MVV Maastricht that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jong Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
MVV Maastricht - Jong Ajax Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.85 ↓
(2.13) |
4.19 ↑
(3.99) |
3.48 ↑
(2.85) |
6.8%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for MVV Maastricht - Jong Ajax?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
MVV Maastricht will win
(11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): MVV Maastricht will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 and 20).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maastricht won 2.
- Both teams are currently in poor form.
- Maastricht could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Maastricht: Poitoux T.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
- There will not play in Jong Ajax: Alders G.
(Inactive)
Verkuijl M.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Jong Ajax: Steur S.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Maastricht won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:32. (average 1.1:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Maastricht won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.2:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has MVV Maastricht won against Jong Ajax?
MVV Maastricht has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Jong Ajax won against MVV Maastricht?
Jong Ajax has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between MVV Maastricht - Jong Ajax were as follows:
29.08.2025
Jong Ajax
-
MVV Maastricht
0:0
02.05.2025
MVV Maastricht
-
Jong Ajax
1:0
19.08.2024
Jong Ajax
-
MVV Maastricht
0:0
12.02.2024
Jong Ajax
-
MVV Maastricht
3:0
01.09.2023
MVV Maastricht
-
Jong Ajax
2:1
Latest results of MVV Maastricht
Latest results of Jong Ajax
Dutch Eerste Divisie Table
Main | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Den Haag ✔ | 35 | 27 | 2 | 6 | 82:34 | 48 | 83 |
| 2 | Cambuur ✔ | 35 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 71:43 | 28 | 74 |
| 3 | De Graafschap | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 68:53 | 15 | 59 |
| 4 | Willem II | 35 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 52:40 | 12 | 59 |
| 5 | Almere City | 35 | 17 | 4 | 14 | 72:57 | 15 | 55 |
| 6 | Jong PSV | 35 | 16 | 5 | 14 | 63:59 | 4 | 53 |
| 7 | Waalwijk | 35 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 61:53 | 8 | 52 |
| 8 | Roda | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 54:49 | 5 | 51 |
| 9 | Den Bosch | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 60:60 | 0 | 49 |
| 10 | Dordrecht | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 45:50 | -5 | 44 |
| 11 | Eindhoven FC | 35 | 13 | 5 | 17 | 49:63 | -14 | 44 |
| 12 | Venlo | 35 | 12 | 5 | 18 | 44:52 | -8 | 41 |
| 13 | FC Emmen | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 55:65 | -10 | 41 |
| 14 | Vitesse | 35 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 60:53 | 7 | 40 |
| 15 | Jong Utrecht | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 52:58 | -6 | 39 |
| 16 | Jong AZ | 35 | 11 | 4 | 20 | 59:71 | -12 | 37 |
| 17 | Maastricht | 35 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 41:71 | -30 | 36 |
| 18 | Oss | 35 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 46:61 | -15 | 35 |
| 19 | Helmond | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 40:61 | -21 | 35 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 48:69 | -21 | 32 |
Promotion ~ Eredivisie
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Den Haag is Qualified for Eredivisie
Cambuur is Qualified for Eredivisie
