MVV Maastricht vs Jong Ajax – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

12/12/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

De Geusselt (Maastricht).

Eerste Divisie - Round 20
Referee: Sturm R. (Ned)
Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN Extra

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.25	0.98
Ball Possession
36%	64%
Total shots
11	13
Shots on target
4	2
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
4	6
Passes
78% (222/284)	84% (437/518)
Yellow Cards
2	1
Expected Goals (xG)
2.25	0.98
xG on target (xGOT)
1.74	0.81
Total shots
11	13
Shots on target
4	2
Shots off target
6	6
Blocked Shots
1	5
Shots inside the Box
8	10
Shots outside the Box
3	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	2
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
4	6
Touches in opposition box
22	25
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
7	1
Free Kicks
10	15
Passes
78% (222/284)	84% (437/518)
Long passes
47% (27/58)	49% (33/67)
Passes in final third
57% (48/84)	58% (52/90)
Crosses
16% (3/19)	20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.64	0.94
Throw-ins
15	25
Fouls
15	10
Tackles
76% (13/17)	71% (10/14)
Duels won
43	52
Clearances
27	17
Interceptions
12	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
1	2
xGOT faced
0.81	1.74
Goals prevented
-0.19	-0.26

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Kleinen M. ⚽, Braken S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Foubert L. ↓, Silva Timas I. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Unuvar E. ⚽, Chourak N. (A),
60', Tehubijuluw D. 🟨,
61', van der Lans M. ↓, Muzungu M. ↑,
70', Tran L. M. ↓, Sy K. ↑,
71', Ouazane A. ↓, Nash P. ↑,
71', O'Niel D. ↓, Kalokoh D. ↑,
78', Reverson P. 🟨,
79', 2 - 1, Van Dessel S. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Butera E. ↓, van der Vaart D. ↑,
83', Vink S. ↓, Wolff K. ↑,
86', Amgar A. ↓, Asante D. ↑,
86', Verheijen T. ↓, Kassimi A. ↑,
90+3', Sy K. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

MVV Maastricht
50.9%

Draw
22.4%

Jong Ajax
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

23.4%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

23.1%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

MVV Maastricht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in MVV Maastricht's performance.

Jong Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jong Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for MVV Maastricht than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with MVV Maastricht that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong Ajax than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jong Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

MVV Maastricht - Jong Ajax Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.13)	4.19 ↑ (3.99)	3.48 ↑ (2.85)	6.8% (7.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

What is the prediction for MVV Maastricht - Jong Ajax?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: MVV Maastricht will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): MVV Maastricht will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 and 20).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maastricht won 2.
Both teams are currently in poor form.
Maastricht could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in Maastricht: Poitoux T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
There will not play in Jong Ajax: Alders G. (Inactive) Verkuijl M. (Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in Jong Ajax: Steur S. (Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Maastricht won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:32. (average 1.1:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Maastricht won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.2:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has MVV Maastricht won against Jong Ajax?

MVV Maastricht has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Jong Ajax won against MVV Maastricht?

Jong Ajax has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between MVV Maastricht - Jong Ajax were as follows:

29.08.2025 Jong Ajax - MVV Maastricht 0:0

02.05.2025 MVV Maastricht - Jong Ajax 1:0

19.08.2024 Jong Ajax - MVV Maastricht 0:0

12.02.2024 Jong Ajax - MVV Maastricht 3:0

01.09.2023 MVV Maastricht - Jong Ajax 2:1

Latest results of MVV Maastricht

05.12.2025 Helmond Sport - MVV Maastricht 2:4 ✺

30.11.2025 MVV Maastricht - Roda 0:0 ✺

25.11.2025 Waalwijk - MVV Maastricht 1:0 ✺

21.11.2025 MVV Maastricht - Jong AZ Alkmaar 1:3 ✺

07.11.2025 Almere City - MVV Maastricht 4:0 ✺

Latest results of Jong Ajax

05.12.2025 Almere City - Jong Ajax 3:2 ✺

01.12.2025 Jong Ajax - Vitesse 2:0 ✺

24.11.2025 Helmond Sport - Jong Ajax 2:1 ✺

21.11.2025 Jong Ajax - FC Eindhoven 1:3 ✺

07.11.2025 Jong Ajax - Dordrecht 0:0 ✺

Dutch Eerste Divisie Table

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Den Haag	28	21	2	5	69:30	39	65
2	Cambuur	26	17	6	3	55:29	26	57
3	De Graafschap	28	14	6	8	52:41	11	48
4	Jong PSV	28	14	4	10	58:52	6	46
5	Roda	28	12	9	7	47:41	6	45
6	Willem II	28	12	7	9	38:36	2	43
7	Dordrecht	28	11	7	10	38:37	1	40
8	Almere City	27	12	3	12	55:45	10	39
9	Waalwijk	28	10	8	10	45:43	2	38
10	Den Bosch	28	11	5	12	49:51	-2	38
11	Venlo	28	11	4	13	38:42	-4	37
12	Eindhoven FC	28	10	4	14	40:51	-11	34
13	Jong Utrecht	27	8	9	10	45:48	-3	33
14	Helmond	28	9	5	14	35:48	-13	32
15	FC Emmen	26	8	6	12	42:48	-6	30
16	Jong AZ	28	9	3	16	49:55	-6	30
17	Maastricht	28	8	6	14	32:55	-23	30
18	Oss	28	6	9	13	34:48	-14	27
19	Vitesse	28	9	9	10	41:45	-4	24
20	Jong Ajax	28	5	8	15	35:52	-17	23

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