Result
2:1
18/03/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 11
- Referee: Ojeda D. (Par)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports, Tigo Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 0.60 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (314/382) | 79% (330/416) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 0.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.60 | 0.29 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (314/382) | 79% (330/416) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (24/53) | 51% (24/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 53% (41/78) | 64% (59/92) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (2/7) | 22% (5/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.21 | 0.95 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 58% (7/12) | 54% (7/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 7 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.29 | 1.60 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.71 | -0.40 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 9', Villalba E. 🟨,
- 38', 1 - 0, Melgarejo L. ⚽, Fretes A. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Diaz F. ↓, Gaona Lugo O. ↑,
- 46', Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↓, Santacruz J. ↑,
- 46', Martinez H. ↓, Molinas A. ↑,
- 46', Villalba E. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
- 57', Feliu J. 🟨,
- 62', Benitez H. A. ↓, Almeida M. ↑,
- 62', Jara F. ↓, Samudio A. ↑,
- 63', 2 - 0, Melgarejo L. (Penalty Awarded),
- 65', Espinoza Acosta M. D. ↓, Delvalle S. ↑,
- 68', Melgarejo L. 🟨,
- 68', Melgarejo L. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
- 73', Meza L. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
- 79', Carrizo F. ↓, Campuzano A. ↑,
- 90', 2 - 1, Valdez I. ⚽, Santacruz J. (A),
Chances of winning
Libertad Asuncion
41% | Draw
31.3% | Nacional Asuncion
27.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-2.2%)
Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.25 ↑
(2.1) |
2.95 ↓
(3.04) |
3.35 ↓
(3.59) |
8.4%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 and 3).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 3.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Libertad might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 12 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 33:18. (average 1.7:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Libertad won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 1.5:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Asuncion won against Nacional Asuncion?
Libertad Asuncion has won 8 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional Asuncion won against Libertad Asuncion?
Nacional Asuncion has won 5 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion were as follows:
27.09.2025
Nacional Asuncion
-
Libertad Asuncion
3:1
19.07.2025
Libertad Asuncion
-
Nacional Asuncion
0:1
11.04.2025
Libertad Asuncion
-
Nacional Asuncion
1:0
29.01.2025
Nacional Asuncion
-
Libertad Asuncion
0:3
06.12.2024
Libertad Asuncion
-
Nacional Asuncion
1:0
Latest results of Libertad Asuncion
Latest results of Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 24:9 | 15 | 36 |
| 2 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 25:13 | 12 | 32 |
| 3 | Ameliano | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 18:12 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 22:17 | 5 | 24 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 19:14 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Guarani | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 21:16 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | Libertad Asuncion | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21:16 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Recoleta | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 20:20 | 0 | 19 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10:19 | -9 | 15 |
| 10 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11:24 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 | Sp. Luqueno | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 16:24 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 10:33 | -23 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
