Result
3:1
27/09/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 14
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 1.30 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (248/332) | 80% (322/401) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 1.30 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.21 | 0.33 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (248/332) | 80% (322/401) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (22/49) | 42% (22/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (66/106) | 55% (50/91) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (6/26) | 45% (5/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.53 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (11/16) | 71% (10/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 32 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.33 | 2.21 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.67 | -0.79 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 1', Gaona Lugo O. 🟨,
- 12', Melgarejo L. 🟨,
- 28', 1 - 0, Gaona Lugo O. ⚽,
- 30', 2 - 0, Arrua C. ⚽,
- 36', 2 - 1, Fernandez H. ⚽,
- 37', Espinoza M. 🟨,
- 45+2', Santa C. R. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Melgarejo L. ↓, Villalba P. ↑,
- 52', 3 - 1, Arrua C. ⚽,
- 54', Alfaro J. F. 🟨,
- 56', Franco I. ↓, Bogarin J. ↑,
- 61', Martinez H. ↓, Sanabria L. ↑,
- 61', Cardozo Lucena A. ↓, Caballero H. ↑,
- 64', Arrua C. ↓, Valdez I. ↑,
- 65', Cabrera M. ↓, Prieto R. ↑,
- 67', Caballero H. 🟨,
- 70', Caballero H. 🟨,
- 76', Villalba P. 🟨,
- 76', Gaona Lugo O. ↓, Almeida M. ↑,
- 77', Bailone I. ↓, Benitez H. ↑,
- 86', Caceres D. 🟨,
- 89', Espinola C. 🟨,
- 90+2', Jara F. 🟨,
- 90+3', Bogarin J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional Asuncion
37.5% | Draw
30.1% | Libertad Asuncion
32.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)The ML Model estimate for Nacional Asuncion aligns with the current prediction.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.5 ↓
(2.62) |
3.11 ↑
(3.04) |
2.88 ↑
(2.76) |
6.8%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Libertad (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Libertad (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 16:33. (average 0.8:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:15. (average 0.9:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional Asuncion won against Libertad Asuncion?
Nacional Asuncion has won 4 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Asuncion won against Nacional Asuncion?
Libertad Asuncion has won 8 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion were as follows:
19.07.2025
Libertad Asuncion
-
Nacional Asuncion
0:1
11.04.2025
Libertad Asuncion
-
Nacional Asuncion
1:0
29.01.2025
Nacional Asuncion
-
Libertad Asuncion
0:3
06.12.2024
Libertad Asuncion
-
Nacional Asuncion
1:0
29.09.2024
Nacional Asuncion
-
Libertad Asuncion
2:1
Latest results of Nacional Asuncion
Latest results of Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:5 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Recoleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:5 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Ameliano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:5 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Sportivo Trinidense | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7:6 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Sp. Luqueno | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Guarani | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Libertad Asuncion | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6:9 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 de Mayo | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:12 | -9 | 2 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4:13 | -9 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
