Result
1:3
07/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football |
 Argentina | Disney+, FOX Sports 2 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD |
 Australia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Paramount+ |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+, ESPN Premium |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN 5 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go |
 Georgia | Silk Universal |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Israel | Sport 1 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 2 |
 Peru | Disney+, Fox Sports 2 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
 South-america | ESPN 5 South, ViX Latin America |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV |
 Venezuela | Disney+, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 2.41 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 73% | 27% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (549/601) | 76% (165/218) |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 2.41 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.12 | 2.92 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (549/601) | 76% (165/218) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 62% (13/21) | 45% (19/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 81% (122/150) | 68% (45/66) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (5/26) | 21% (3/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 1.07 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 100% (10/10) | 58% (7/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 33 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 37 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.92 | 2.12 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.08 | 1.12 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 3)
- 47', 1 - 0, Jean Lucas ⚽, Willian Jose (A),
- 57', 1 - 1, Morales L. ⚽, Millan J. (A),
- 61', Recoba J. ↓, Romero D. ↑,
- 64', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Ademir ↑,
- 69', 1 - 2, Lopez N. ⚽, Villalba Jaume L. M. (A),
- 76', Morales L. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
- 82', Oliva C. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
- 84', Jean Lucas ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
- 84', Erick ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
- 86', 1 - 3, Millan J. ⚽, Villalba Jaume L. M. (A),
- 90', Caio Alexandre ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
- 90', Erick Pulga ↓, Kayky ↑,
Chances of winning
Bahia
60.8% | Draw
22.8% | Nacional Montevideo
16.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-1.3%)
Bahia - Nacional Montevideo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.55 ↑
(1.53) |
4.1 ↓
(4.15) |
5.71 ↓
(6.04) |
6.3%
(6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Bahia - Nacional Montevideo?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Nacional will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 35.2% – 92%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.
- Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Bahia is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Bahia: Arias S.
(Inactive)
Gilberto
(Inactive)
Kanu
(Muscle Injury)
Ronaldo Strada
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Nacional: Carneiro G.
(Knee Injury)
Mereles E.
(Injury)
- We predict that Bahia will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Bahia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Bahia won against Nacional Montevideo?
Bahia has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional Montevideo won against Bahia?
Nacional Montevideo has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Nacional Montevideo were as follows:
09.04.2025
Nacional Montevideo
-
Bahia
0:1
Latest results of Nacional Montevideo
Draw
Play Offs1/8-finals| 1 | Atl. Nacional | Sao Paulo | 0 : 0 |
| 2 | Botafogo RJ | LDU Quito | |
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | River Plate | |
| 4 | U. de Deportes | Palmeiras | |
| 5 | Fortaleza | Velez Sarsfield | 0 : 0 |
| 6 | Penarol | Racing Club | 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | Estudiantes L.P. | |
| 8 | Flamengo RJ | Internacional | |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
