Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

28/06/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Hiroshima Big Arch (Hiroshima).

J1 League - Round 22
Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
China	K-Ball
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	PSJ TV
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.09	1.33
Ball Possession
63%	37%
Total shots
16	10
Shots on target
4	3
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
8	2
Passes
79% (378/478)	63% (183/290)
Yellow Cards
2	3
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09	1.33
xG on target (xGOT)
0.72	1.24
Total shots
16	10
Shots on target
4	3
Shots off target
8	6
Blocked Shots
4	1
Shots inside the Box
7	7
Shots outside the Box
9	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
8	2
Touches in opposition box
26	13
Accurate through passes
1	1
Offsides
5	4
Free Kicks
9	16
Passes
79% (378/478)	63% (183/290)
Long passes
37% (24/65)	32% (24/75)
Passes in final third
74% (134/180)	51% (45/89)
Crosses
28% (7/25)	25% (2/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.31	0.49
Throw-ins
30	22
Fouls
16	9
Tackles
100% (8/8)	46% (6/13)
Duels won
39	56
Clearances
29	35
Interceptions
12	13
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
2	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	3
xGOT faced
1.24	0.72
Goals prevented
-0.76	-0.28

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 2)
21', 0 - 1, Mateus ⚽, Morishima T. (A),
32', Nakamura S. 🟨,
40', 0 - 2, Mateus ⚽, Inagaki S. (A),
44', Nogami Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mateus ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
46', Kinoshita K. ↓, Nakajima Y. ↑,
46', Higashi S. 🟨,
50', Morishima T. 🟨,
55', Morishima T. ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,
58', Kato M. ↓, Maeda N. ↑,
58', Higashi S. ↓, Suga D. ↑,
71', Germain R. ↓, Germain V. ↑,
76', Nakamura S. ↓, Ohara M. ↑,
81', Pisano A. 🟨,
90', 1 - 2, Arai N. ⚽,
90+4', Tokumoto S. ↓, Kawazura A. ↑,
90+4', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Mori S. ↑,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
52.9%

Draw
26.5%

Nagoya Grampus
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

29.7%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

29.3%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sanfrecce Hiroshima's performance.

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sanfrecce Hiroshima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.09)	3.54 ↑ (3.22)	4.61 ↑ (3.91)	5.6% (4.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus?

Users Predictions: Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.78% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2 and 14).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 2.
Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
Recently, Nagoya has had a series of home games.
In this match, Hiroshima is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Hiroshima: Arslan T. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Nagoya: Mori S. (Inactive) Sato Y. (Yellow Cards) Schmidt D. (Knee Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 23:23. (average 1.2:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Hiroshima won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.5:1.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Sanfrecce Hiroshima won against Nagoya Grampus?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has won 3 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Nagoya Grampus won against Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Nagoya Grampus has won 6 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus were as follows:

20.04.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2:1

08.09.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus 1:3

04.09.2024 Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:1

17.08.2024 Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:2

06.05.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus 2:3

Latest results of Sanfrecce Hiroshima

22.06.2025 Yokohama FC - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:4 ✺

14.06.2025 Kashima Antlers - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:1 ✺

11.06.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Brew Saga 3:1 ✺

08.06.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka 2:1 ✺

04.06.2025 Avispa Fukuoka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Nagoya Grampus

21.06.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse 1:1 ✺

15.06.2025 Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus 2:1 ✺

11.06.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Veroskronos Tsuno 3:0 ✺

31.05.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Albirex Niigata 3:0 ✺

24.05.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Urawa Red Diamonds 2:1 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	24	14	4	6	34:22	12	46
2	Kashima Antlers	24	14	2	8	36:24	12	44
3	Kashiwa Reysol	24	12	8	4	33:23	10	44
4	Kyoto	24	12	6	6	40:29	11	42
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	24	13	3	8	29:18	11	42
6	Machida	24	12	4	8	34:25	9	40
7	Kawasaki Frontale	24	10	8	6	38:26	12	38
8	Urawa Reds	23	10	7	6	32:24	8	37
9	Cerezo Osaka	24	9	7	8	37:33	4	34
10	Gamba Osaka	24	10	4	10	29:31	-2	34
11	Avispa Fukuoka	23	8	7	8	21:23	-2	31
12	Okayama	24	8	6	10	20:22	-2	30
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	24	8	6	10	29:32	-3	30
14	FC Tokyo	24	8	5	11	27:34	-7	29
15	Nagoya Grampus	24	7	7	10	28:33	-5	28
16	Verdy	24	7	7	10	15:24	-9	28
17	Shonan Bellmare	24	6	6	12	20:37	-17	24
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	24	5	6	13	23:32	-9	21
19	Yokohama FC	24	5	4	15	14:30	-16	19
20	Albirex Niigata	24	4	7	13	24:41	-17	19

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League