Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Japan J1 League Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus
28/06/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • J1 League - Round 22
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaOptus Sport
chinaChinaK-Ball
indiaIndiaFanCode, FanCode
indonesiaIndonesiaPSJ TV
japanJapanDAZN Japan

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.091.33
Ball Possession
63%37%
Total shots
1610
Shots on target
43
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
82
Passes
79% (378/478)63% (183/290)
Yellow Cards
23
Expected Goals (xG)
1.091.33
xG on target (xGOT)
0.721.24
Total shots
1610
Shots on target
43
Shots off target
86
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
77
Shots outside the Box
93
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
82
Touches in opposition box
2613
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
54
Free Kicks
916
Passes
79% (378/478)63% (183/290)
Long passes
37% (24/65)32% (24/75)
Passes in final third
74% (134/180)51% (45/89)
Crosses
28% (7/25)25% (2/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.310.49
Throw-ins
3022
Fouls
169
Tackles
100% (8/8)46% (6/13)
Duels won
3956
Clearances
2935
Interceptions
1213
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
20
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
1.240.72
Goals prevented
-0.76-0.28

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 21', 0 - 1, Mateus , Morishima T. (A),
  • 32', Nakamura S. 🟨,
  • 40', 0 - 2, Mateus , Inagaki S. (A),
  • 44', Nogami Y. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Mateus , Nagai K. ,
  • 46', Kinoshita K. , Nakajima Y. ,
  • 46', Higashi S. 🟨,
  • 50', Morishima T. 🟨,
  • 55', Morishima T. , Kikuchi T. ,
  • 58', Kato M. , Maeda N. ,
  • 58', Higashi S. , Suga D. ,
  • 71', Germain R. , Germain V. ,
  • 76', Nakamura S. , Ohara M. ,
  • 81', Pisano A. 🟨,
  • 90', 1 - 2, Arai N. ,
  • 90+4', Tokumoto S. , Kawazura A. ,
  • 90+4', Yamagishi Y. , Mori S. ,

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Sanfrecce Hiroshima
52.9%
Draw
26.5%
Nagoya Grampus
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
45.8% 29.7% 24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5% 29.3% 24.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sanfrecce Hiroshima's performance.
  • Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-6.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sanfrecce Hiroshima that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+3.5%)
  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.8
    (2.09)
    3.54
    (3.22)
    4.61
    (3.91)
    5.6%
    (4.5%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus?
  • Users Predictions: Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 79.78%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2 and 14).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 2.
    • Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
    • Recently, Nagoya has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Hiroshima is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Hiroshima: Arslan T. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Nagoya: Mori S. (Inactive) Sato Y. (Yellow Cards) Schmidt D. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 23:23. (average 1.2:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Hiroshima won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:12. (average 1.5:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus were as follows:
    20.04.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2:1
    08.09.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus 1:3
    04.09.2024 Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:1
    17.08.2024 Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:2
    06.05.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus 2:3
    Latest results of Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Latest results of Nagoya Grampus
    Japan J1 League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Vissel Kobe24144634:221246
    2Kashima Antlers24142836:241244
    3Kashiwa Reysol24128433:231044
    4Kyoto24126640:291142
    5Sanfrecce Hiroshima24133829:181142
    6Machida24124834:25940
    7Kawasaki Frontale24108638:261238
    8Urawa Reds23107632:24837
    9Cerezo Osaka2497837:33434
    10Gamba Osaka241041029:31-234
    11Avispa Fukuoka2387821:23-231
    12Okayama24861020:22-230
    13Shimizu S-Pulse24861029:32-330
    14FC Tokyo24851127:34-729
    15Nagoya Grampus24771028:33-528
    16Verdy24771015:24-928
    17Shonan Bellmare24661220:37-1724
    18Yokohama F. Marinos24561323:32-921
    19Yokohama FC24541514:30-1619
    20Albirex Niigata24471324:41-1719

          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
          Relegation ~ J2 League