Result
1:2
03/05/2026 at 04:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 14
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | AbemaTV, DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 0.98 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (279/390) | 77% (309/400) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 0.98 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.76 | 2.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (279/390) | 77% (309/400) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 16% (10/61) | 37% (22/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (97/160) | 65% (95/147) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (7/27) | 20% (4/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 0.39 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 36% (4/11) | 69% (11/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 35 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.06 | 0.76 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.06 | -0.24 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 29', 1 - 0, Thiago ⚽, Hasegawa M. (A),
- 34', 1 - 1, Nagai K. ⚽, Sugiura S. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Mori S. ↓, Koda H. ↑,
- 46', Yamada R. ↓, Campbell N. ↑,
- 53', Arai I. ↓, Teruyama H. ↑,
- 54', 1 - 2, Nagai K. ⚽,
- 63', Thiago ↓, Matheus Jesus ↑,
- 63', Yoneda S. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
- 72', Nagai K. ↓, Sakakibara K. ↑,
- 74', Yamaguchi H. ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
- 79', Yamanaka R. ↓, Sato Y. ↑,
- 79', Sugiura S. ↓, Kimura Y. ↑,
- 80', Matheus Jesus 🟨,
- 86', Nogami Y. ↓, Kawazura A. ↑,
Chances of winning
V-Varen Nagasaki
35.3% | Draw
28.7% | Nagoya Grampus
36% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nagoya Grampus might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with V-Varen Nagasaki that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nagoya Grampus could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.7 ↓
(3) |
3.29 ↑
(3.25) |
2.59 ↑
(2.23) |
6%
(8.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Nagoya will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)).
- V-Varen Nagasaki has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Nagoya has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- V-Varen Nagasaki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Nagoya is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Nagoya: Koyamatsu T.
(Knee Injury)
Marcus Vinicius
(Broken Leg)
Mateus
(Injury)
Sato Y.
(Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 2.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has V-Varen Nagasaki won against Nagoya Grampus?
V-Varen Nagasaki has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nagoya Grampus won against V-Varen Nagasaki?
Nagoya Grampus has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus were as follows:
21.02.2026
Nagoya Grampus
-
V-Varen Nagasaki
1:3
Latest results of V-Varen Nagasaki
Latest results of Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23:10 | 34 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 29:13 | 32 |
| 3 | Machida | 13 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:20 | 25 |
| 4 | Verdy | 13 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20:16 | 24 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 20:25 | 20 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 20:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Mito | 14 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21:28 | 18 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21:26 | 16 |
| 9 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16:21 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiba | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13:26 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 23:18 | 26 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 15 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 28:21 | 25 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 25:20 | 25 |
| 4 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17:14 | 21 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 21:19 | 20 |
| 6 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 7 | Okayama | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Kyoto | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20:18 | 19 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 15 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18:27 | 18 |
| 10 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 14:22 | 16 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
