Result
1:3
15/02/2026 at 05:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 20
- Referee: Aliyev A. (Aze)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Azerbaijan | CBC Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 12 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 12 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 12 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 3)
- 27', 0 - 1, Sambou B. ⚽,
- 35', 1 - 1, Huseynli R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 38', 1 - 2, Sambou B. ⚽,
- 40', 1 - 3, Mahmudov E. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Pachu ↓, Shahverdiyev E. ↑,
- 54', Nabiyev F. ↓, Cafarov C. ↑,
- 56', Safarov E. ↓, Vargas F. ↑,
- 57', Sambou B. ↓, Aboubakar V. ↑,
- 65', Seyidov S. ↓, Ba M. ↑,
- 65', Huseynli R. ↓, Shafiyev S. ↑,
- 69', Mahmudov E. ↓, Camalov E. ↑,
- 69', Seck M. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
- 72', Isayev M. 🟥,
- 74', Camalov E. 🟨,
- 82', Mammadov M. ↓, Shtogrin A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Kapaz
16.2% | Draw
24.3% | Neftchi Baku
59.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Kapaz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Neftchi Baku's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kapaz than the current prediction. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-4.5%)
Kapaz - Neftchi Baku Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.66 ↑
(4.6) |
3.77 ↑
(3.53) |
1.54 ↓
(1.67) |
9.2%
(10%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Kapaz - Neftchi Baku?
Users Predictions:
Neftchi Baku will win
(6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 11 and 6).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kapaz won 1.
- Kapaz has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Neftchi is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Recently, Kapaz has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Neftchi is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kapaz won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 22:41. (average 1.1:2.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Kapaz won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 1.2:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Kapaz won against Neftchi Baku?
Kapaz has won 3 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Neftchi Baku won against Kapaz?
Neftchi Baku has won 8 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Kapaz - Neftchi Baku were as follows:
01.11.2025
Neftchi Baku
-
Kapaz
5:1
04.05.2025
Neftchi Baku
-
Kapaz
2:2
05.03.2025
Kapaz
-
Neftchi Baku
1:0
28.02.2025
Neftchi Baku
-
Kapaz
1:0
05.02.2025
Kapaz
-
Neftchi Baku
0:2
Latest results of Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sabah Baku | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 45:15 | 30 | 53 |
| 2 | Qarabag | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 39:16 | 23 | 46 |
| 3 | Turan Tovuz | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 27:14 | 13 | 41 |
| 4 | Zira | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | 7 | 38 |
| 5 | Araz | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 31:36 | -5 | 33 |
| 6 | Neftci Baku | 21 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 30:20 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Sumqayit | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31:30 | 1 | 31 |
| 8 | Shamakhi | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 23:26 | -3 | 26 |
| 9 | Imisli FK | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 18:25 | -7 | 21 |
| 10 | Gabala | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 19:29 | -10 | 16 |
| 11 | Kapaz | 22 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 17:45 | -28 | 16 |
| 12 | Karvan | 22 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 14:45 | -31 | 7 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ I Liqa
