Carlisle United vs Newport County – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

05/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Brunton Park (Carlisle).

League Two - Round 41
Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.32	1.03
Ball Possession
57%	43%
Total shots
16	13
Shots on target
7	8
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
5	3
Passes
73% (293/404)	58% (175/302)
Yellow Cards
3	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32	1.03
xG on target (xGOT)
2.93	0.97
Total shots
16	13
Shots on target
7	8
Shots off target
4	2
Blocked Shots
5	3
Shots inside the Box
11	8
Shots outside the Box
5	5
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
5	3
Touches in opposition box
31	21
Through passes
50% (1/2)	100% (2/2)
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
8	10
Passes
73% (293/404)	58% (175/302)
Long passes
44% (34/77)	22% (22/99)
Passes in final third
63% (113/178)	45% (48/106)
Crosses
18% (4/22)	20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.59	0.84
Fouls
10	8
Tackles
80% (12/15)	75% (15/20)
Duels won
66	60
Clearances Total
25	34
Interceptions
5	9
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	4
xGOT faced
0.97	2.93
Goals prevented
-1.03	-0.07

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 2)
24', Davies A. ↓, McArthur C. ↑,
26', 0 - 1, Evans K. ⚽, Kamwa B. (A),
28', 0 - 2, Kamwa B. ⚽,
33', 1 - 2, Kelly G. ⚽, Wearne S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', Vela J. ↓, Dennis M. ↑,
60', 2 - 2, Kelly G. ⚽,
67', Ajiboye D. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
71', Evans K. ↓, Whitmore K. ↑,
75', Hayden A. 🟨,
75', Martin J. 🟨,
80', Wearne S. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
80', Fusire S. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
84', 3 - 2, Hayden A. ⚽,
90+2', Dennis M. 🟨,
90+4', Bevan J. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Carlisle United
55%

Draw
24.1%

Newport County
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

25.3%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

24.7%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

The chances for Newport County have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Carlisle United - Newport County Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.74)	3.87 ↑ (3.69)	4.56 ↑ (4.47)	6% (7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Carlisle United - Newport County?

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Newport will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newport: 45% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 17).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.
Two teams are in a poor body shape now.
Newport could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Carlisle is a favorite.
There will not play in Carlisle: Dummett P. (Hamstring Injury) Embleton E. (Red Card) Jones J. (Inactive) McGeouch D. (Inactive) Williams J. (Injury) Wyke Ch. (Broken ankle)
There will not play in Newport: Hudlin K. (Calf Injury) Jameson K. (Injury) Wildig A. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Carlisle: Fusire S. (Injury) Harper C. (Injury) Lavelle S. (Injury)
There are questionable in Newport: Davies T. (Hamstring Injury)
Last 19 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 23:27 (average 1.2:1.4).
Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16:12 (average 1.8:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Carlisle United won against Newport County?

Carlisle United has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Newport County won against Carlisle United?

Newport County has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Carlisle United - Newport County were as follows:

11.02.2025 Newport County - Carlisle United 1:0

14.01.2023 Carlisle United - Newport County 2:0

24.09.2022 Newport County - Carlisle United 1:1

Latest results of Carlisle United

01.04.2025 Chesterfield - Carlisle United 2:1 ✺

29.03.2025 Doncaster Rovers - Carlisle United 3:0 ✺

25.03.2025 Carlisle United - Milton Keynes Dons 2:2 ✺

22.03.2025 Carlisle United - Bromley 2:1 ✺

15.03.2025 Carlisle United - AFC Wimbledon 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Newport County

01.04.2025 Newport County - Bromley 1:1 ✺

29.03.2025 Newport County - Notts County 0:2 ✺

22.03.2025 Grimsby Town - Newport County 1:0 ✺

15.03.2025 Newport County - Harrogate Town 3:0 ✺

11.03.2025 Accrington Stanley - Newport County 5:0 ✺

English League Two Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Colchester	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Bristol Rovers	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Cheltenham	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Crewe	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Gillingham	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	Oldham	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Swindon	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Tranmere	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Walsall	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Accrington	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Barnet	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Chesterfield	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Grimsby	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	MK Dons	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Notts Co	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Shrewsbury	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Cambridge Utd	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Crawley	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Barrow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	Bromley	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
21	Newport	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
22	Harrogate	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
23	Fleetwood	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
24	Salford	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ League Two
      Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ National League