Carlisle United vs Newport County – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Two Carlisle United - Newport County
Result
3:2
05/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • League Two - Round 41
  • Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.321.03
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
1613
Shots on target
78
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
53
Passes
73% (293/404)58% (175/302)
Yellow Cards
31
Expected Goals (xG)
1.321.03
xG on target (xGOT)
2.930.97
Total shots
1613
Shots on target
78
Shots off target
42
Blocked Shots
53
Shots inside the Box
118
Shots outside the Box
55
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
20
Corner Kicks
53
Touches in opposition box
3121
Through passes
50% (1/2)100% (2/2)
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
810
Passes
73% (293/404)58% (175/302)
Long passes
44% (34/77)22% (22/99)
Passes in final third
63% (113/178)45% (48/106)
Crosses
18% (4/22)20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.590.84
Fouls
108
Tackles
80% (12/15)75% (15/20)
Duels won
6660
Clearances Total
2534
Interceptions
59
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
64
xGOT faced
0.972.93
Goals prevented
-1.03-0.07

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 24', Davies A. , McArthur C. ,
  • 26', 0 - 1, Evans K. , Kamwa B. (A),
  • 28', 0 - 2, Kamwa B. ,
  • 33', 1 - 2, Kelly G. , Wearne S. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 55', Vela J. , Dennis M. ,
  • 60', 2 - 2, Kelly G. ,
  • 67', Ajiboye D. , Martin J. ,
  • 71', Evans K. , Whitmore K. ,
  • 75', Hayden A. 🟨,
  • 75', Martin J. 🟨,
  • 80', Wearne S. , Hugill J. ,
  • 80', Fusire S. , Bevan J. ,
  • 84', 3 - 2, Hayden A. ,
  • 90+2', Dennis M. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Bevan J. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Carlisle United
55%
Draw
24.1%
Newport County
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.8% 25.3% 20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5% 24.7% 21.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)
  • The chances for Newport County have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+0.5%)
  • Carlisle United - Newport County Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.72
    (1.74)
    3.87
    (3.69)
    4.56
    (4.47)
    6%
    (7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Carlisle United - Newport County?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Newport will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Newport: 45%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 17).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.
    • Two teams are in a poor body shape now.
    • Newport could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • In this match Carlisle is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Carlisle: Dummett P. (Hamstring Injury) Embleton E. (Red Card) Jones J. (Inactive) McGeouch D. (Inactive) Williams J. (Injury) Wyke Ch. (Broken ankle)
    • There will not play in Newport: Hudlin K. (Calf Injury) Jameson K. (Injury) Wildig A. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Carlisle: Fusire S. (Injury) Harper C. (Injury) Lavelle S. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Newport: Davies T. (Hamstring Injury)
    • Last 19 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 23:27 (average 1.2:1.4).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16:12 (average 1.8:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Carlisle United - Newport County were as follows:
    11.02.2025 Newport County - Carlisle United 1:0
    14.01.2023 Carlisle United - Newport County 2:0
    24.09.2022 Newport County - Carlisle United 1:1
    Latest results of Carlisle United
    Latest results of Newport County
    English League Two Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Walsall1382319:12726
    2Swindon1381424:19525
    3MK Dons1373326:131324
    4Grimsby1373325:151024
    5Gillingham1364318:12622
    6Chesterfield1364323:20322
    7Salford1371518:17122
    8Notts Co1363423:15821
    9Cambridge Utd1363416:13321
    10Barnet1362516:13320
    11Crewe1361617:16119
    12Fleetwood1354419:19019
    13Bromley1346319:17218
    14Colchester1345421:18317
    15Barrow1352611:13-217
    16Bristol Rovers1352614:21-717
    17Oldham1336410:10015
    18Tranmere1235420:18214
    19Harrogate1342715:20-514
    20Accrington1233611:14-312
    21Shrewsbury1333710:20-1012
    22Cheltenham133289:25-1611
    23Crawley1323810:22-129
    24Newport1322911:23-128

          Promotion ~ League One
          Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ National League