Result
3:2
05/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 41
- Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 1.03 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (293/404) | 58% (175/302) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 1.03 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.93 | 0.97 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 21 |
| Through passes |
|---|
| 50% (1/2) | 100% (2/2) |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (293/404) | 58% (175/302) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (34/77) | 22% (22/99) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (113/178) | 45% (48/106) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (4/22) | 20% (3/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.59 | 0.84 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (12/15) | 75% (15/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 66 | 60 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 25 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.97 | 2.93 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.03 | -0.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 24', Davies A. ↓, McArthur C. ↑,
- 26', 0 - 1, Evans K. ⚽, Kamwa B. (A),
- 28', 0 - 2, Kamwa B. ⚽,
- 33', 1 - 2, Kelly G. ⚽, Wearne S. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 55', Vela J. ↓, Dennis M. ↑,
- 60', 2 - 2, Kelly G. ⚽,
- 67', Ajiboye D. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
- 71', Evans K. ↓, Whitmore K. ↑,
- 75', Hayden A. 🟨,
- 75', Martin J. 🟨,
- 80', Wearne S. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
- 80', Fusire S. ↓, Bevan J. ↑,
- 84', 3 - 2, Hayden A. ⚽,
- 90+2', Dennis M. 🟨,
- 90+4', Bevan J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Carlisle United
55% | Draw
24.1% | Newport County
20.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)The chances for Newport County have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+0.5%)
Carlisle United - Newport County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.72 ↓
(1.74) |
3.87 ↑
(3.69) |
4.56 ↑
(4.47) |
6%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Carlisle United - Newport County?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Newport will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newport: 45% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Newport (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Newport (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Newport (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 17).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.
- Two teams are in a poor body shape now.
- Newport could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- In this match Carlisle is a favorite.
- There will not play in Carlisle: Dummett P.
(Hamstring Injury)
Embleton E.
(Red Card)
Jones J.
(Inactive)
McGeouch D.
(Inactive)
Williams J.
(Injury)
Wyke Ch.
(Broken ankle)
- There will not play in Newport: Hudlin K.
(Calf Injury)
Jameson K.
(Injury)
Wildig A.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Carlisle: Fusire S.
(Injury)
Harper C.
(Injury)
Lavelle S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Newport: Davies T.
(Hamstring Injury)
- Last 19 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 23:27 (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16:12 (average 1.8:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Carlisle United won against Newport County?
Carlisle United has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Newport County won against Carlisle United?
Newport County has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Carlisle United - Newport County were as follows:
11.02.2025
Newport County
-
Carlisle United
1:0
14.01.2023
Carlisle United
-
Newport County
2:0
24.09.2022
Newport County
-
Carlisle United
1:1
Latest results of Carlisle United
Latest results of Newport County
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 35 | 19 | 12 | 4 | 58:35 | 23 | 69 |
| 2 | Cambridge Utd | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 49:27 | 22 | 64 |
| 3 | MK Dons | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 63:34 | 29 | 62 |
| 4 | Swindon | 35 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 57:41 | 16 | 62 |
| 5 | Notts Co | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52:33 | 19 | 61 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 35 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 55:44 | 11 | 56 |
| 7 | Crewe | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 52:41 | 11 | 56 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 49:38 | 11 | 55 |
| 9 | Salford | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 47:46 | 1 | 55 |
| 10 | Barnet | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 44:37 | 7 | 53 |
| 11 | Walsall | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 42:37 | 5 | 53 |
| 12 | Colchester | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 48:38 | 10 | 49 |
| 13 | Fleetwood | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44:42 | 2 | 48 |
| 14 | Oldham | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 36:30 | 6 | 46 |
| 15 | Accrington | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 37:36 | 1 | 46 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 41:41 | 0 | 44 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 34:54 | -20 | 38 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 34:55 | -21 | 36 |
| 19 | Tranmere | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 47:62 | -15 | 35 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 33:57 | -24 | 31 |
| 21 | Crawley | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 33:56 | -23 | 28 |
| 22 | Newport | 35 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 35:61 | -26 | 28 |
| 23 | Barrow | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 33:51 | -18 | 27 |
| 24 | Harrogate | 35 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25:52 | -27 | 27 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
