Result
3:1
02/11/2025 at 04:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 14
- Referee: Bulanov E. (Rus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 1 |
 Russia | Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 0.44 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (196/276) | 79% (309/391) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 0.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.64 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 20 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (196/276) | 79% (309/391) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (24/61) | 41% (26/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (89/132) | 70% (85/121) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (2/13) | 14% (3/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 0.37 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 29 | 31 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (14/18) | 58% (7/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.64 | 1.23 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.36 | -0.77 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 9', 1 - 0, Gurluk E. ⚽, Thompson J. (A),
- 16', Chichinadze A. 🟨,
- 22', Ezhov R. 🟨,
- 37', 2 - 0, Ignatov M. (Own goal),
- 40', 2 - 1, Kamano F. ⚽, Vasiljev D. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 62', 3 - 1, Thompson J. ⚽,
- 75', Zinkovskiy A. ↓, Bart R. ↑,
- 75', Vasiljev D. ↓, Kovalenko A. ↑,
- 75', Ezhov R. ↓, Korneev A. ↑,
- 77', Khotulev D. 🟨,
- 78', Du Queiroz ↓, Kamilov V. ↑,
- 78', Gurluk E. ↓, Oganesyan S. ↑,
- 78', Rybchinskiy D. ↓, Bubanja V. ↑,
- 83', Guzina G. ↓, Poroykov S. ↑,
- 85', Thompson J. ↓, Savelyev M. ↑,
- 86', Saavedra I. 🟨,
- 90', Kamano F. ↓, Makarchuk A. ↑,
- 90', Ignatov M. ↓, Fedorov Z. ↑,
- 90+3', Kvekveskiri I. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Orenburg
43% | Draw
27.9% | Sochi
29.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)Sochi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Orenburg - Sochi Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.21 ↑
(2.2) |
3.41 ↓
(3.5) |
3.27 ↑
(2.98) |
5.2%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Orenburg - Sochi?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Orenburg will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Sochi will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Sochi (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Sochi (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Sochi (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 in the zone Premier League (Relegation) and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 4.
- Orenburg is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Sochi has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Sochi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Orenburg has had a series of away games.
- Orenburg might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Sochi: Meleshin P.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 2.1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:4. (average 2.2:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Sochi?
Orenburg has won 5 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sochi won against Orenburg?
Sochi has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Orenburg - Sochi were as follows:
10.12.2023
Sochi
-
Orenburg
1:1
04.10.2023
Sochi
-
Orenburg
1:2
03.09.2023
Orenburg
-
Sochi
3:0
09.08.2023
Orenburg
-
Sochi
2:0
10.03.2023
Sochi
-
Orenburg
0:4
Latest results of Orenburg
Russian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Krasnodar | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39:13 | 26 | 43 |
| 2 | Zenit | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 35:12 | 23 | 42 |
| 3 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 41:24 | 17 | 40 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 30:18 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Baltika | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 24:8 | 16 | 35 |
| 6 | Spartak Moscow | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:25 | 4 | 32 |
| 7 | Akhmat Grozny | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23:25 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Dynamo Moscow | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 31:26 | 5 | 24 |
| 9 | Rubin Kazan | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 17:24 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 | Akron Togliatti | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 22:28 | -6 | 21 |
| 11 | FK Rostov | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 16:22 | -6 | 21 |
| 12 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10:22 | -12 | 18 |
| 13 | Krylya Sovetov | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 20:37 | -17 | 17 |
| 14 | Orenburg | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:29 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 | Pari NN | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 13:30 | -17 | 14 |
| 16 | Sochi | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 18:44 | -26 | 9 |
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL
