Result
0:1
25/04/2026 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 27
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | Q Football Asia |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 5 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go |
 Russia | Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 5 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 1.13 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 60% (209/348) | 60% (197/329) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 1.13 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.17 | 1.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 60% (209/348) | 60% (197/329) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 32% (26/82) | 27% (23/86) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (73/136) | 56% (48/86) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 9% (2/22) | 24% (4/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.44 | 0.36 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 37 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (8/18) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 81 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 53 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 16 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.17 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.16 | 0.17 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Melekhin V. ↓, Semenchuk D. ↑,
- 66', Kuchaev K. ↓, Shantaliy D. ↑,
- 72', Alexandre Jesus ↓, Guzina G. ↑,
- 72', Gurluk E. ↓, Golybin R. ↑,
- 72', Thompson J. ↓, Puebla D. ↑,
- 73', Golenkov E. ↓, Bayramyan K. ↑,
- 85', 0 - 1, Guzina G. ⚽,
- 88', Shchetinin K. ↓, Mohebi M. ↑,
- 89', Rudakov M. 🟨,
- 90+3', Cantero A. 🟨,
- 90+3', Cantero A. ↓, Vedernikov D. ↑,
- 90+6', Du Queiroz ↓, Kvekveskiri I. ↑,
- 90+7', Vedernikov D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Rostov
48.8% | Draw
27.5% | Orenburg
23.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rostov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)Orenburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rostov than the current prediction. (-9.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rostov that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (+7.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orenburg could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Rostov - Orenburg Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.95 ↓
(2.25) |
3.45 ↓
(3.5) |
4.02 ↑
(3.5) |
5.2%
(1.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 13 in the zone Premier League (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rostov won 5.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Rostov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Rostov is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Orenburg: Ovsyannikov B.
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Rostov won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:21. (average 1.5:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Rostov won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:8. (average 2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Rostov won against Orenburg?
Rostov has won 7 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Rostov?
Orenburg has won 1 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Rostov - Orenburg were as follows:
05.10.2025
Orenburg
-
Rostov
0:1
08.03.2025
Orenburg
-
Rostov
1:2
18.09.2024
Rostov
-
Orenburg
3:1
28.08.2024
Orenburg
-
Rostov
0:1
17.08.2024
Rostov
-
Orenburg
3:2
Latest results of Orenburg
Russian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Krasnodar | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 56:21 | 35 | 63 |
| 2 | Zenit | 28 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 50:18 | 32 | 62 |
| 3 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 52:36 | 16 | 50 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 45:38 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | Baltika | 28 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 37:18 | 19 | 46 |
| 6 | CSKA Moscow | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 39:31 | 8 | 45 |
| 7 | Rubin Kazan | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 26:26 | 0 | 42 |
| 8 | Dynamo Moscow | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 47:38 | 9 | 39 |
| 9 | Akhmat Grozny | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 33:37 | -4 | 35 |
| 10 | FK Rostov | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 22:30 | -8 | 30 |
| 11 | Krylya Sovetov | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 31:48 | -17 | 29 |
| 12 | Akron Togliatti | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 33:46 | -13 | 27 |
| 13 | Orenburg | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 28:41 | -13 | 26 |
| 14 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 18:36 | -18 | 24 |
| 15 | Pari NN | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 23:46 | -23 | 22 |
| 16 | Sochi | 28 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 27:57 | -30 | 21 |
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL
