Result
1:2
04/01/2026 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal 2 - Round 17
- Referee: Ferreira V. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 21 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 14', 1 - 0, Reko (Penalty Awarded),
- 21', Cunha N. 🟨,
- 26', 1 - 1, Cunha N. ⚽, Costinha (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Sery J. ↓, Alcaina R. ↑,
- 54', 1 - 2, Pinto J. ⚽,
- 65', Dani Molina ↓, Pedro Sa ↑,
- 65', Davo ↓, Santos A. ↑,
- 68', Costinha ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
- 75', Ze Leite ↓, Suker H. ↑,
- 77', Pinto J. ↓, Anilson ↑,
- 77', Silva V. ↓, Dias L. ↑,
- 81', Negrao G. ↓, Pereira B. ↑,
- 84', Cunha N. ↓, Diego Fernandes ↑,
- 84', Victor J. ↓, Kauan ↑,
Chances of winning
Penafiel
44% | Draw
29.1% | Paços de Ferreira
26.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.09 ↓
(2.1) |
3.17 ↓
(3.2) |
3.41 ↑
(3.36) |
8.8%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira?
Users Predictions:
Penafiel will win
(10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Penafiel will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Penafiel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Penafiel will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Penafiel won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 1.1:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Penafiel won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Penafiel won against Paços de Ferreira?
Penafiel has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Paços de Ferreira won against Penafiel?
Paços de Ferreira has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Penafiel - Paços de Ferreira were as follows:
08.02.2025
Penafiel
-
Paços de Ferreira
1:2
01.09.2024
Paços de Ferreira
-
Penafiel
1:3
20.04.2024
Penafiel
-
Paços de Ferreira
1:1
09.12.2023
Paços de Ferreira
-
Penafiel
2:1
15.07.2023
Paços de Ferreira
-
Penafiel
1:1
Latest results of Penafiel
Latest results of Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Maritimo | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 38:19 | 19 | 47 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 44:26 | 18 | 44 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 24 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 37:23 | 14 | 38 |
| 4 | FC Porto B | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 31:31 | 0 | 37 |
| 5 | Torreense | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 28:27 | 1 | 36 |
| 6 | Leiria | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 34:31 | 3 | 35 |
| 7 | Vizela | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 30:28 | 2 | 35 |
| 8 | Lusitania FC | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 33:37 | -4 | 34 |
| 9 | Feirense | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28:27 | 1 | 32 |
| 10 | Benfica B | 24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 33:31 | 2 | 31 |
| 11 | Leixoes | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 27:40 | -13 | 31 |
| 12 | Chaves | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27:24 | 3 | 30 |
| 13 | Felgueiras | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24:30 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 21:23 | -2 | 28 |
| 15 | SC Farense | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22:31 | -9 | 27 |
| 16 | Oliveirense | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 26:33 | -7 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos Ferreira | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 20:32 | -12 | 24 |
| 18 | Portimonense | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 25:35 | -10 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Liga Portugal
Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Promotion: )
Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga 3
