Result
3:2 penalties
24/09/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Coppa Italia - 1/16-finals
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
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Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.76 | 1.08 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (351/407) | 86% (445/518) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.76 | 1.08 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 1.75 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (351/407) | 86% (445/518) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 62% (31/50) | 42% (23/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (81/109) | 63% (69/109) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (2/11) | 10% (2/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 0.51 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 88% (7/8) | 61% (11/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 29 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.75 | 1.29 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.25 | -0.71 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 26', 1 - 0, Britschgi S. ⚽,
- 36', Fellipe Jack 🟨,
- 44', 1 - 1, Aurelio G. ⚽, Vignali L. (A),
- 45+1', 2 - 1, Pellegrino M. ⚽, Benedyczak A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Del Prato E. ↓, Circati A. ↑,
- 46', Sorensen O. ↓, Plicco E. ↑,
- 57', Artistico G. ↓, Lapadula G. ↑,
- 57', Cassata F. ↓, Kouda R. ↑,
- 70', Aurelio G. ↓, Beruatto P. ↑,
- 70', Vignali L. ↓, Candela A. ↑,
- 70', Estevez N. ↓, Keita M. ↑,
- 73', Benedyczak A. ↓, Cutrone P. ↑,
- 76', Plicco E. 🟥,
- 80', Onofri M. ↓, Soleri E. ↑,
- 80', Pellegrino M. ↓, Bernabe A. ↑,
- 82', 2 - 2, Lapadula G. ⚽, Comotto C. (A),
- Penalties (4 - 3)
- 1, Soleri E. (Pen),
- 1, Cutrone P. (Pen),
- 2, Kouda R. (Pen),
- 2, Ndiaye A. (Pen),
- 3, Vlahovic V. (Pen),
- 3, Bernabe A. (Pen),
- 4, Lapadula G. (Pen),
- 4, Circati A. (Pen),
- 5, Fellipe Jack (Pen),
- 5, Ordonez C. (Pen),
Chances of winning
Parma
52% | Draw
28% | Spezia
20% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Parma's form might have worsened.Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parma than the current prediction. (+8.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Parma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-5.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Spezia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Parma - Spezia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.85 ↑
(1.65) |
3.43 ↓
(3.6) |
4.76 ↓
(6.2) |
4.2%
(4.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Parma - Spezia?
Users Predictions:
Parma will win
(20 of 21 users predict this - 95.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 86.13% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Parma will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Parma won 3.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Spezia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Spezia has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Parma is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Parma won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Parma won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 1.3:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Parma won against Spezia?
Parma has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Parma?
Spezia has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Parma - Spezia were as follows:
13.04.2024
Parma
-
Spezia
2:0
02.12.2023
Spezia
-
Parma
0:1
Draw
2025/261/64-finals| 1 | Bologna | Bye | |
| 5 | Parma | Bye | |
| 6 | Pescara | Rimini | 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Spezia | Bye | |
| 8 | Bye | Sampdoria | |
| 9 | Lazio | Bye | |
| 13 | AC Milan | Bye | |
| 14 | Bye | Bari | |
| 15 | Lecce | Bye | |
| 16 | Bye | Juve Stabia | |
| 17 | Juventus | Bye | |
| 21 | Udinese | Bye | |
| 22 | Bye | Carrarese | |
| 23 | Cremonese | Bye | |
| 24 | Bye | Palermo | |
| 25 | Atalanta | Bye | |
| 29 | Empoli | Bye | |
| 30 | Bye | Reggiana | |
| 31 | Genoa | Bye | |
| 32 | Padova | L.R. Vicenza | 0 : 2 |
| 33 | Inter | Bye | |
| 37 | Audace Cerignola | Avellino | 1 : 0 |
| 38 | Verona | Bye | |
| 39 | Venezia | Bye | |
| 40 | Bye | Mantova | |
| 41 | AS Roma | Bye | |
| 45 | Torino | Bye | |
| 46 | Bye | Modena | |
| 47 | Pisa | Bye | |
| 48 | Bye | Cesena | |
| 49 | Fiorentina | Bye | |
| 53 | Como | Bye | |
| 54 | Bye | Sudtirol | |
| 55 | Sassuolo | Bye | |
| 56 | Bye | Catanzaro | |
| 57 | Napoli | Bye | |
| 61 | Monza | Bye | |
| 62 | Bye | Frosinone | |
| 63 | Cagliari | Bye | |
| 64 | Entella | Ternana | 4 : 0 |
1/32-finals| 1 | Bologna | Bye | |
| 3 | Parma | Pescara | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Spezia | Sampdoria | 2 : 1 |
| 5 | Lazio | Bye | |
| 7 | AC Milan | Bari | 2 : 0 |
| 8 | Lecce | Juve Stabia | 2 : 0 |
| 9 | Juventus | Bye | |
| 11 | Udinese | Carrarese | 2 : 0 |
| 12 | Cremonese | Palermo | 0 : 1 |
| 13 | Atalanta | Bye | |
| 15 | Empoli | Reggiana | 2 : 1 |
| 16 | Genoa | L.R. Vicenza | 3 : 0 |
| 17 | Inter | Bye | |
| 19 | Audace Cerignola | Verona | 1 : 2 |
| 20 | Venezia | Mantova | 4 : 0 |
| 21 | AS Roma | Bye | |
| 23 | Torino | Modena | 1 : 0 |
| 24 | Pisa | Cesena | 1 : 0 |
| 25 | Fiorentina | Bye | |
| 27 | Como | Sudtirol | 3 : 1 |
| 28 | Sassuolo | Catanzaro | 1 : 0 |
| 29 | Napoli | Bye | |
| 31 | Monza | Frosinone | 0 : 1 |
| 32 | Cagliari | Entella | 2 : 1 |
1/16-finals| 1 | Bologna | Bye | |
| 2 | Parma | Spezia | 3 : 2 |
| 3 | Lazio | Bye | |
| 4 | AC Milan | Lecce | 3 : 0 |
| 5 | Juventus | Bye | |
| 6 | Udinese | Palermo | 2 : 1 |
| 7 | Atalanta | Bye | |
| 8 | Empoli | Genoa | 1 : 3 |
| 9 | Inter | Bye | |
| 10 | Verona | Venezia | 0 : 1 |
| 11 | AS Roma | Bye | |
| 12 | Torino | Pisa | 1 : 0 |
| 13 | Fiorentina | Bye | |
| 14 | Como | Sassuolo | 3 : 0 |
| 15 | Napoli | Bye | |
| 16 | Frosinone | Cagliari | 1 : 4 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Bologna | Parma | |
| 2 | Lazio | AC Milan | |
| 3 | Juventus | Udinese | |
| 4 | Atalanta | Genoa | |
| 5 | Inter | Venezia | |
| 6 | AS Roma | Torino | |
| 7 | Fiorentina | Como | |
| 8 | Napoli | Cagliari | |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
