Result
4:2
25/04/2026 at 06:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 36
- Referee: Piccinini M. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.79 | 2.00 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 64% | 36% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (351/413) | 68% (155/229) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.79 | 2.00 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 4.09 | 2.44 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (351/413) | 68% (155/229) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (15/41) | 54% (28/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (81/101) | 54% (52/97) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (5/19) | 7% (1/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.83 | 0.89 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.44 | 4.09 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.44 | 0.09 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 24', 1 - 0, Petriccione J. ⚽, Favasuli C. (A),
- 44', 1 - 1, Valoti M. ⚽, Lapadula G. (A),
- 45', Di Serio G. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 63', 2 - 1, Fellipe Jack ⚽, Favasuli C. (A),
- 66', Petriccione J. 🟨,
- 67', Di Serio G. ↓, Skjellerup L. ↑,
- 67', Nagy A. ↓, Romano A. ↑,
- 71', Petriccione J. ↓, Rispoli F. ↑,
- 75', Hristov P. 🟨,
- 77', Fellipe Jack ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
- 78', Pontisso S. ↓, Pompetti M. ↑,
- 78', Liberali M. ↓, Nuamah P. ↑,
- 78', Beruatto P. ↓, Adamo E. ↑,
- 78', 3 - 1, Pittarello F. ⚽, Frosinini R. (A),
- 80', Valoti M. 🟨,
- 82', 4 - 1, Pittarello F. ⚽, Di Francesco F. (A),
- 87', Sernicola L. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
- 87', Comotto C. ↓, Bellemo A. ↑,
- 89', Di Francesco F. ↓, Esteves G. ↑,
- 90+3', 4 - 2, Lapadula G. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Catanzaro
41.7% | Draw
27.7% | Spezia
30.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Catanzaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Catanzaro's form might have worsened.Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
Catanzaro - Spezia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.26 ↑
(1.99) |
3.38 ↓
(3.69) |
3.07 ↓
(3.35) |
6.3%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Catanzaro - Spezia?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Catanzaro will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Spezia will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - Spezia (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Spezia (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 19 in the zone Relegation).
- Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 1.
- Catanzaro has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Spezia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Spezia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Catanzaro could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A.
(Muscle Injury)
D'Alessandro M.
(Inactive)
Favasuli C.
(Injury)
Iemmello P.
(Injury)
Petriccione J.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Spezia: Cassata F.
(Muscle Injury)
Sarr M.
(Ankle Injury)
Zurkowski S.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Catanzaro: Matias Antonini
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Spezia: Artistico G.
(Inactive)
Bonfanti G.
(Inactive)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 0.9:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Catanzaro won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Catanzaro won against Spezia?
Catanzaro has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Catanzaro?
Spezia has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Catanzaro - Spezia were as follows:
30.08.2025
Spezia
-
Catanzaro
0:0
25.05.2025
Spezia
-
Catanzaro
2:1
21.05.2025
Catanzaro
-
Spezia
0:2
23.02.2025
Spezia
-
Catanzaro
0:1
21.12.2024
Catanzaro
-
Spezia
0:1
Latest results of Catanzaro
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia ✔ | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 75:31 | 44 | 79 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 37 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 71:34 | 37 | 78 |
| 3 | Monza | 37 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 59:30 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 37 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 61:31 | 30 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 37 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 60:48 | 12 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 49:35 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia ✔ | 37 | 11 | 17 | 9 | 43:44 | -1 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:55 | -13 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Mantova | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 45:52 | -7 | 46 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 44 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 35:47 | -12 | 44 |
| 13 | Padova | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35:46 | -11 | 43 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 45:52 | -7 | 40 |
| 15 | Sudtirol | 37 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 37:47 | -10 | 40 |
| 16 | Entella | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 39 |
| 17 | Bari | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 35:58 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Pescara | 37 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 50:65 | -15 | 34 |
| 19 | Spezia | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 42:58 | -16 | 34 |
| 20 | Reggiana | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 35:56 | -21 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Venezia is Qualified for Serie A
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Juve Stabia is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
