Legia Warsaw vs Termalica Nieciecza – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

09/11/2025 at 08:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw).

Ekstraklasa - Round 15
Referee: Arys K. (Pol)
Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.25	1.19
Ball Possession
70%	30%
Total shots
23	13
Shots on target
6	7
Big Chances
2	4
Corner Kicks
11	2
Passes
87% (528/609)	72% (189/261)
Yellow Cards
1	4
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25	1.19
xG on target (xGOT)
0.49	1.49
Total shots
23	13
Shots on target
6	7
Shots off target
10	3
Blocked Shots
7	3
Shots inside the Box
12	6
Shots outside the Box
11	7
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
2	4
Corner Kicks
11	2
Touches in opposition box
35	11
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	3
Free Kicks
19	13
Passes
87% (528/609)	72% (189/261)
Long passes
52% (24/46)	40% (21/52)
Passes in final third
77% (168/219)	56% (35/62)
Crosses
29% (12/41)	10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.41	0.45
Throw-ins
20	12
Fouls
13	19
Tackles
63% (12/19)	60% (12/20)
Duels won
64	46
Clearances
16	60
Interceptions
6	7
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	5
xGOT faced
1.49	0.49
Goals prevented
-0.51	-0.51

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Kubica K. ⚽, Kasperkiewicz A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Fassbender M. ↓, Kurzawa R. ↑,
46', Jakubik W. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
54', Elitim J. 🟨,
57', Elitim J. ↓, Kapustka B. ↑,
57', Szymanski D. ↓, Augustyniak R. ↑,
58', Zapolnik K. 🟨,
62', Kopacz B. 🟨,
65', Urbanski W. ↓, Zewlakow J. ↑,
65', Colak A. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
66', Kubica K. ↓, Guerrero S. ↑,
66', Zapolnik K. ↓, Trubeha A. ↑,
67', Guerrero S. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Krasniqi E. ⚽,
79', Kurzawa R. 🟨,
83', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Boboc R. ↑,
89', Urbanski K. ↓, Jedrzejczyk A. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Trubeha A. ⚽,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Legia Warsaw
68.2%

Draw
18.7%

Termalica Nieciecza
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.6%

20.6%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

16%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-18.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Legia Warsaw that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Termalica Nieciecza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 (1.38)	4.97 ↑ (4.33)	7.28 ↑ (6)	6.5% (12.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

What is the prediction for Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Legia will win (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Termalica will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 62.2% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Legia Warsaw will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Legia won 3.
Recent performances by Legia have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Termalica is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Termalica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Legia is the undeniable favorite.
There will not play in Legia: Arreiol H. (Muscle Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Reca A. (Injury) Weisshaupt N. (Inactive)
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Legia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 1.9:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:3. (average 3:0.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Legia Warsaw won against Termalica Nieciecza?

Legia Warsaw has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Termalica Nieciecza won against Legia Warsaw?

Termalica Nieciecza has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza were as follows:

30.08.2022 Termalica Nieciecza - Legia Warsaw 2:3

Latest results of Legia Warsaw

06.11.2025 Celje - Legia Warsaw 2:1 ✺

02.11.2025 Widzew Łódź - Legia Warsaw 1:1 ✺

30.10.2025 Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin 1:2 ✺

26.10.2025 Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań 0:0 ✺

23.10.2025 Shakhtar Donetsk - Legia Warsaw 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Termalica Nieciecza

31.10.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - GKS Katowice 0:3 ✺

24.10.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - Zagłębie Lubin 1:1 ✺

20.10.2025 Wisła Płock - Termalica Nieciecza 3:1 ✺

04.10.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - Widzew Łódź 2:4 ✺

27.09.2025 Piast Gliwice - Termalica Nieciecza 4:2 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Jagiellonia	22	10	8	4	39:26	13	38
2	Zaglebie	23	10	8	5	37:27	10	38
3	Lech Poznan	23	10	8	5	40:34	6	38
4	Gornik Zabrze	23	10	4	9	33:31	2	34
5	Rakow	23	10	4	9	31:29	2	34
6	Cracovia	23	8	9	6	29:25	4	33
7	Wisla Plock	23	8	9	6	24:20	4	33
8	Pogon Szczecin	23	9	4	10	33:35	-2	31
9	Korona Kielce	23	8	6	9	27:26	1	30
10	GKS Katowice	22	9	3	10	31:32	-1	30
11	Motor Lublin	23	7	9	7	32:37	-5	30
12	Radomiak Radom	22	7	8	7	37:34	3	29
13	Piast Gliwice	23	8	5	10	26:28	-2	29
14	Lechia Gdansk	23	9	6	8	46:45	1	28
15	Arka Gdynia	22	7	5	10	21:38	-17	26
16	Legia	23	5	10	8	27:29	-2	25
17	Widzew Lodz	23	7	3	13	29:33	-4	24
18	Termalica B-B	23	5	7	11	27:40	-13	22

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1