Result
3:1
03/01/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 17
- Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 0.73 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 29% | 71% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (163/236) | 86% (498/578) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 0.73 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 1.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (163/236) | 86% (498/578) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 26% (14/53) | 59% (27/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 51% (35/68) | 70% (92/132) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 13% (4/30) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 0.85 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 92% (11/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 9 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.12 | 1.18 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.12 | -1.82 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 8', 0 - 1, Trezza A. ⚽, van Ee E. (A),
- 12', 1 - 1, Maviram E. ⚽,
- 19', Maviram E. 🟨,
- 34', 2 - 1, Siebatcheu J. ⚽, Maviram E. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
- 53', Cicero 🟨,
- 57', Manso T. 🟨,
- 60', 3 - 1, Rodriguez Y. ⚽, Maviram E. (A),
- 65', Popovic B. ↓, Fukui T. ↑,
- 65', van Ee E. ↓, Kuipers B. ↑,
- 73', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
- 77', Manso T. ↓, Conceicao R. ↑,
- 80', Tiago Esgaio ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
- 80', Djouahra N. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 83', Pedro Santos ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 84', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
- 84', Hodge J. ↓, Afonso J. ↑,
- 90+2', Lee H. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Tondela
41.7% | Draw
28.8% | Arouca
29.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tondela's form might have worsened.Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arouca's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+5.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tondela, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
Tondela - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.26 ↑
(2.02) |
3.28 ↓
(3.51) |
3.18 ↓
(3.98) |
6.2%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Tondela - Arouca?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). Arouca will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 52.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.1% – 75.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Arouca (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 1.
- Recent form of Tondela has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Arouca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Arouca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Tondela could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Tondela: Bebeto
(Injury)
Moudjatovic M.
(Injury)
Sithole S.
(International duty)
- There will not play in Arouca: Dante A.
(International duty)
Flores M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Lee H.
(Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.6:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Arouca?
Tondela has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Tondela?
Arouca has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Arouca were as follows:
Latest results of Tondela
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
