Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Hockey NHL
Result
2:5
28/02/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • NHL
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
denmarkDenmarkTV3 Sport, Viaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay
germanyGermanyNHL.tv
icelandIcelandViaplay
italyItalyDAZN Italia
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
norwayNorwayViaplay
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDAZN
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldNHL.tv

Match Stats

Shots on Goal
2340
Shots off target
1419
Shooting PCT
8.7% (2/23)12.5% (5/40)
Blocked shots
615
Goalkeeper Saves
3521
Saves PCT
87.5% (35/40)91.3% (21/23)
Penalties
86
PIM
2715
Power-play Goals
01
Shorthanded Goals
00
Power-play PCT
0% (0/6)12.5% (1/8)
Pen. Killing PCT
87.5% (7/8)100% (6/6)
Hits
2427
Faceoffs Won
2524
Faceoffs %
51.0248.98
Giveaways
1312
Takeaways
56
Empty Net Goals
00

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Period (1 - 1)
  • 00:50, Cozens D. (2 min),
  • 02:52, 1 - 0, Rielly M. (G), Matthews A. (A), McCabe J. (A2)
  • 10:59, 1 - 1, Chabot T. (G), Tkachuk B. (A), Cozens D. (A2)
  • 13:03, Benoit S. (2 min),
  • 2nd Period (1 - 4)
  • 03:03, 1 - 2, Cozens D. (G), Chabot T. (A), Zetterlund F. (A2)
  • 13:05, 1 - 3, Batherson D. (G),
  • 13:56, 2 - 3, Nylander W. (G), Laughton S. (A), Maccelli M. (A2)
  • 15:15, 2 - 4, Batherson D. (G),
  • 15:15, (2 min),
  • 16:06, 2 - 5, Cozens D. (G), Stutzle T. (A), Sanderson J. (A2)
  • 17', Woll J. ↓, Stolarz A. ↑,
  • 3rd Period (0 - 0)
  • 03:34, Domi M. (10 min),
  • 03:34, Cousins N. (5 min),
  • 03:34, Greig R. (2 min),
  • 03:34, Laughton S. (5 min),
  • 03:34, Domi M. (2 min),
  • 03:34, Stolarz A. (2 min),
  • 03:34, Cousins N. (2 min),
  • 08:09, Tavares J. (2 min),
  • 08:09, Pinto S. (2 min),
  • 10:27, Tkachuk B. (2 min),
  • 16:44, Rielly M. (2 min),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Toronto Maple Leafs
34.7%		Draw
22.6%		Ottawa Senators
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
41.1% 22.5% 36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9% 23.2% 37.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toronto Maple Leafs's form might have worsened.
  • Ottawa Senators has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ottawa Senators's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto Maple Leafs than the current prediction. (+5.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toronto Maple Leafs, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ottawa Senators than the current prediction. (-5.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ottawa Senators, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.7 ↑
    (2.3)    		 4.2
    (4.2)    		 2.24 ↓
    (2.6)    		 5.6%
    (5.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 6.00
    What is the prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators?
  • Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ottawa will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0, 3rd Period - Toronto (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Toronto (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:4.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 13 and 11)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 3.
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • Toronto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Toronto has had a series of away games.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • There will not play in Toronto: Tanev C. (Groin Injury)
    • There will not play in Ottawa: Matinpalo N. (Injury) Perron D. (Groin Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 58:69. (average 2.9:3.5).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 33:43. (average 3:3.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators were as follows:
    27.12.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators 7:5
    23.09.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators 2:3
    21.09.2025 Ottawa Senators - Toronto Maple Leafs 3:4
    01.05.2025 Ottawa Senators - Toronto Maple Leafs 2:4
    29.04.2025 Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators 0:4
    Latest results of Toronto Maple Leafs
    26.02.2026 Florida Panthers - Toronto Maple Leafs 5:1 ✺
    25.02.2026 Tampa Bay Lightning - Toronto Maple Leafs 4:2 ✺
    03.02.2026 Edmonton Oilers - Toronto Maple Leafs 2:5 ✺
    02.02.2026 Calgary Flames - Toronto Maple Leafs 2:4 ✺
    31.01.2026 Vancouver Canucks - Toronto Maple Leafs 2:3 ✺
    Latest results of Ottawa Senators
    26.02.2026 Ottawa Senators - Detroit Red Wings 1:2 ✺
    05.02.2026 Philadelphia Flyers - Ottawa Senators 1:2 ✺
    03.02.2026 Carolina Hurricanes - Ottawa Senators 4:3 ✺
    02.02.2026 Pittsburgh Penguins - Ottawa Senators 2:3 ✺
    31.01.2026 Ottawa Senators - New Jersey Devils 4:1 ✺
    NHL Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Colorado Avalanche66395913249:17097
    2Dallas Stars673391015235:18494
    3Minnesota Wild6925141218230:19990
    4Anaheim Ducks672215327223:23377
    5Edmonton Oilers69268926243:23577
    6Utah Mammoth68278627214:19176
    7Vegas Golden Knights682381423220:21176
    8Seattle Kraken67256927193:20571
    9Los Angeles Kings6718101524180:20171
    10San Jose Sharks662012628207:23470
    11Nashville Predators67228928199:22869
    12Winnipeg Jets672351128191:20667
    13St. Louis Blues672431030177:22264
    14Chicago Blackhawks671871230178:21762
    15Calgary Flames67224734167:21259
    16Vancouver Canucks67147838176:24850


    Eastern Conference
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Carolina Hurricanes673111619235:19790
    2Buffalo Sabres68357620237:20090
    3Tampa Bay Lightning66329421237:18486
    4Montreal Canadiens6725121020236:22284
    5Pittsburgh Penguins672951518230:20483
    6New York Islanders682514524200:19283
    7Detroit Red Wings682611823200:20382
    8Boston Bruins682710823224:21482
    9Columbus Blue Jackets6724111121217:20981
    10Ottawa Senators66286923225:20577
    11Philadelphia Flyers6620111223191:20574
    12Washington Capitals68285827212:20374
    13New Jersey Devils672212231180:20470
    14Toronto Maple Leafs692181228216:24170
    15Florida Panthers67267331201:22569
    16New York Rangers67199831190:20964

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