Result
1:0
28/02/2026 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 4
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 1.20 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (316/412) | 84% (489/583) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 1.20 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.35 | 1.14 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 42 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (316/412) | 84% (489/583) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (25/71) | 47% (21/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (83/114) | 75% (144/192) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (5/21) | 12% (3/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 1.64 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (9/16) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 33 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.14 | 2.35 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.14 | 1.35 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 26', Cools D. 🟨,
- 38', 1 - 0, Matheus Jesus ⚽, Hasegawa M. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 57', Shibayama M. ↓, Nakajima M. ↑,
- 57', Sakata R. ↓, Yokoyama Y. ↑,
- 64', Hasegawa M. ↓, Iwasaki Y. ↑,
- 64', Yamada R. ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
- 66', Hatanaka S. 🟨,
- 71', Kagawa S. ↓, Ishiwatari N. ↑,
- 75', Campbell N. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
- 75', Thiago ↓, Kushibiki K. ↑,
- 81', Thiago Andrade ↓, Yengi K. ↑,
- 81', Cools D. ↓, Okuda H. ↑,
- 89', Diego Pituca 🟨,
Chances of winning
V-Varen Nagasaki
31.9% | Draw
26.7% | Cerezo Osaka
41.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that V-Varen Nagasaki's form might have worsened.Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cerezo Osaka's recent form is better than expected.
V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.93 ↑
(2.41) |
3.5 ↓
(3.56) |
2.29 ↓
(2.75) |
6.5%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerezo Osaka: 15.4% – 84.6%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerezo Osaka (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - V-Varen Nagasaki (2.20) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Cerezo Osaka (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1.
- V-Varen Nagasaki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Dudu Giusti
(Injury)
- There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Uejo S.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has V-Varen Nagasaki won against Cerezo Osaka?
V-Varen Nagasaki has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against V-Varen Nagasaki?
Cerezo Osaka has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka were as follows:
Latest results of V-Varen Nagasaki
Latest results of Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18:7 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19:10 | 23 |
| 3 | Machida | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17:16 | 22 |
| 4 | Verdy | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 16:15 | 15 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14:15 | 12 |
| 7 | Mito | 10 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:19 | 12 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 15:14 | 11 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13:18 | 9 |
| 10 | Chiba | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Kyoto | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17:12 | 17 |
| 3 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | 17 |
| 4 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 15:14 | 17 |
| 5 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 17:15 | 16 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:11 | 14 |
| 7 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 8 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10:15 | 12 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10:17 | 11 |
| 10 | Okayama | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11:20 | 11 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
