Result
2:1 penalties
03/05/2026 at 02:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 14
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | AbemaTV, DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 0.42 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 72% | 28% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (604/686) | 72% (199/276) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 0.42 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.39 | 0.35 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (604/686) | 72% (199/276) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 59% (30/51) | 38% (24/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 75% (146/194) | 51% (45/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/23) | 25% (2/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.81 | 0.28 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (6/12) | 70% (7/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 32 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.35 | 0.39 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.65 | -0.61 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 11', 0 - 1, Usui S. ⚽,
- 35', Ishiwatari N. 🟨,
- 37', Hashimoto Y. ↓, Maejima Y. ↑,
- 40', Tanaka S. 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 1, Inoue R. ⚽, Shibayama M. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 62', Okuno K. ↓, Shiihashi K. ↑,
- 62', Kitajima Y. ↓, Yamawaki K. ↑,
- 63', Shibayama M. ↓, Sakuragawa S. ↑,
- 63', Homma S. ↓, Cools D. ↑,
- 73', Nakajima M. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
- 73', Thiago Andrade ↓, Yokoyama Y. ↑,
- 82', Usui S. ↓, Michiwaki Y. ↑,
- 82', Fujimoto K. ↓, Fukushima K. ↑,
- Penalties (4 - 3)
- 1, Tsujioka Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Kagawa S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Shiihashi K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Tanaka S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Shigemi M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Cools D. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Michiwaki Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Hatanaka S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Kamijima T. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Cerezo Osaka
50.7% | Draw
26.5% | Avispa Fukuoka
22.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.85 ↑
(1.84) |
3.52 ↑
(3.4) |
4.07 ↑
(4) |
6.9%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerezo Osaka: 29% – 96%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 5.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Cerezo Osaka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Cerezo Osaka has had a series of away games.
- Cerezo Osaka could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L.
(Knee Injury)
Sakata R.
(Hamstring Injury)
Takahashi T.
(Back Injury)
Yengi K.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Avispa Fukuoka: Nago S.
(Red Card)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:12. (average 1.4:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Avispa Fukuoka?
Cerezo Osaka has won 5 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Avispa Fukuoka won against Cerezo Osaka?
Avispa Fukuoka has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cerezo Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka were as follows:
15.02.2026
Avispa Fukuoka
-
Cerezo Osaka
0:2
13.09.2025
Avispa Fukuoka
-
Cerezo Osaka
2:4
24.05.2025
Cerezo Osaka
-
Avispa Fukuoka
2:0
09.11.2024
Cerezo Osaka
-
Avispa Fukuoka
1:0
18.05.2024
Avispa Fukuoka
-
Cerezo Osaka
0:3
Latest results of Cerezo Osaka
Latest results of Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23:10 | 34 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 29:13 | 32 |
| 3 | Machida | 13 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:20 | 25 |
| 4 | Verdy | 13 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20:16 | 24 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 20:25 | 20 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 20:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Mito | 14 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21:28 | 18 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21:26 | 16 |
| 9 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16:21 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiba | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13:26 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 23:18 | 26 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 15 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 28:21 | 25 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 25:20 | 25 |
| 4 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17:14 | 21 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 21:19 | 20 |
| 6 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 7 | Okayama | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Kyoto | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20:18 | 19 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 15 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18:27 | 18 |
| 10 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 14:22 | 16 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
