Result
2:0
21/02/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 33
- Referee: Webb D. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 0.65 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (279/359) | 84% (356/425) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 0.65 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 0.17 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (279/359) | 84% (356/425) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (19/57) | 53% (27/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (68/109) | 63% (73/115) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/9) | 26% (5/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 0.61 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 34 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 74% (17/23) | 67% (6/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 35 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.17 | 1.44 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.17 | -0.56 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 5', 1 - 0, Kjerrumgaard L. ⚽,
- 23', Clarke M. 🟨,
- 23', Maamma O. ↓, Chakvetadze G. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 52', Chakvetadze G. 🟨,
- 55', Elder C. 🟨,
- 62', Ozoh D. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
- 62', Brewster R. ↓, Morris C. ↑,
- 62', Elder C. ↓, Murkin D. ↑,
- 68', Irankunda N. ↓, Baah K. ↑,
- 68', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
- 78', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
- 83', Doumbia M. 🟨,
- 85', Baah K. ↓, Bola M. ↑,
- 86', Goglichidze S. ↓, Pollock M. ↑,
- 90', 2 - 0, Doumbia M. ⚽, Bola M. (A),
- 90+2', Travis L. ↓, Allen C. ↑,
Chances of winning
Watford
44.8% | Draw
27.9% | Derby County
27.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+6.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Watford, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-4%)
Watford - Derby County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.13 ↑
(1.95) |
3.41 ↓
(3.51) |
3.47 ↓
(3.84) |
5%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Watford - Derby County?
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. Watford will win (votes: 7 - 33.3%). Derby will win (votes: 10 - 47.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 26.2% – 69%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Watford (votes: 2 - 40%). Derby (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Watford won 5.
- Recent form of Watford has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Derby is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Recently, Watford has had a series of away games.
- Watford will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Watford: Ekwah P.
(Injury)
Kyprianou H.
(Ankle Injury)
Vata R.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There will not play in Derby: Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Langas S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Widell Zetterstrom J.
(Illness)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Watford won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:22. (average 1.8:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Watford won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.8:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Watford won against Derby County?
Watford has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Watford?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Watford - Derby County were as follows:
22.11.2025
Derby County
-
Watford
2:3
18.01.2025
Derby County
-
Watford
0:2
24.08.2024
Watford
-
Derby County
2:1
Latest results of Watford
Latest results of Derby County
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 42 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 84:42 | 42 | 85 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 40 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 71:40 | 31 | 75 |
| 3 | Millwall | 42 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 56:47 | 9 | 73 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 62:42 | 20 | 72 |
| 5 | Southampton | 41 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 70:50 | 20 | 69 |
| 6 | Hull | 42 | 20 | 8 | 14 | 64:60 | 4 | 68 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 42 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 63:60 | 3 | 64 |
| 8 | Derby | 42 | 18 | 9 | 15 | 61:53 | 8 | 63 |
| 9 | Norwich | 42 | 17 | 7 | 18 | 55:50 | 5 | 58 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 52:51 | 1 | 58 |
| 11 | QPR | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 58:63 | -5 | 58 |
| 12 | Watford | 42 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 52:51 | 1 | 57 |
| 13 | Preston | 42 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 50:53 | -3 | 57 |
| 14 | Swansea | 42 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 50:54 | -4 | 57 |
| 15 | Birmingham | 42 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 51:52 | -1 | 56 |
| 16 | Stoke | 42 | 15 | 10 | 17 | 49:46 | 3 | 55 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 42 | 16 | 6 | 20 | 59:59 | 0 | 54 |
| 18 | Charlton | 42 | 12 | 13 | 17 | 39:51 | -12 | 49 |
| 19 | Blackburn | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 38:50 | -12 | 48 |
| 20 | West Brom | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 42:56 | -14 | 46 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 41 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 41:57 | -16 | 45 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 42 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 41:54 | -13 | 44 |
| 23 | Leicester | 42 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 54:64 | -10 | 41 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed ✔ | 42 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 25:82 | -57 | -4 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
Clinched Spots for Teams
Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
