Derby County vs Watford – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

22/11/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Pride Park (Derby).

Championship - Round 16
Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.65	1.48
Ball Possession
38%	62%
Total shots
9	14
Shots on target
2	4
Big Chances
0	3
Corner Kicks
9	3
Passes
65% (173/265)	82% (390/476)
Yellow Cards
2	1
Expected Goals (xG)
0.65	1.48
xG on target (xGOT)
0.94	2.51
Total shots
9	14
Shots on target
2	4
Shots off target
6	3
Blocked Shots
1	7
Shots inside the Box
6	9
Shots outside the Box
3	5
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
1	1
Big Chances
0	3
Corner Kicks
9	3
Touches in opposition box
18	18
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	0
Free Kicks
15	8
Passes
65% (173/265)	82% (390/476)
Long passes
25% (15/60)	39% (24/61)
Passes in final third
50% (51/103)	60% (63/105)
Crosses
24% (7/29)	33% (4/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.66	0.44
Throw-ins
16	23
Fouls
8	15
Tackles
69% (9/13)	33% (2/6)
Duels won
49	40
Clearances
28	33
Interceptions
13	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	0
xGOT faced
2.51	0.94
Goals prevented
-0.49	-1.06

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Morris C. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
35', Baah K. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
36', 1 - 0, Sanderson D. ⚽,
39', Sanderson D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
54', 2 - 0, Langas S. ⚽, Ward J. (A),
58', Brereton Diaz B. 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Kjerrumgaard L. ⚽, Ngakia J. (A),
65', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
65', Kyprianou H. ↓, Semedo V. ↑,
68', Kayembe E. 🟨,
70', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
71', Agyemang P. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
81', Maamma O. ↓, Sissoko M. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Kayembe E. (Pen),
88', 2 - 3, Kayembe E. ⚽, Louza I. (A),
90+1', Langas S. ↓, Thompson L. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Derby County
38%

Draw
29.8%

Watford
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.4%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

29.2%

32.9%

Derby County - Watford Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.54)	3.17 ↓ (3.22)	2.93 ↑ (2.86)	5.2% (5.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Derby County - Watford?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Watford will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

DNB - Watford (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Derby County will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Watford (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 15).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 0.
Derby has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Watford has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Watford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Derby: Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Thompson L. (Hip Injury) Travis L. (Calf Injury)
There will not play in Watford: Chakvetadze G. (Foot Injury) Grieves J. (Ankle Injury)
There are questionable in Derby: Ozoh D. (Injury)
There are questionable in Watford: Wiley C. (Muscle Injury)
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Derby won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:19. (average 1.8:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 2:1.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Watford?

Derby County has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Watford won against Derby County?

Watford has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Watford were as follows:

18.01.2025 Derby County - Watford 0:2

24.08.2024 Watford - Derby County 2:1

Latest results of Derby County

08.11.2025 Blackburn Rovers - Derby County 1:2 ✺

04.11.2025 Derby County - Hull City 2:1 ✺

01.11.2025 Sheffield United - Derby County 1:3 ✺

25.10.2025 Derby County - Queens Park Rangers 1:0 ✺

21.10.2025 Derby County - Norwich City 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Watford

07.11.2025 Watford - Bristol City 1:1 ✺

04.11.2025 Ipswich Town - Watford 1:1 ✺

01.11.2025 Watford - Middlesbrough 3:0 ✺

25.10.2025 Coventry City - Watford 3:1 ✺

22.10.2025 Watford - West Bromwich Albion 2:1 ✺

English League Championship Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	31	18	7	6	49:30	19	61
2	Coventry	31	17	8	6	63:35	28	59
3	Ipswich	30	15	9	6	51:29	22	54
4	Hull	31	16	6	9	50:43	7	54
5	Millwall	31	15	8	8	39:36	3	53
6	Wrexham	31	12	11	8	44:39	5	47
7	Preston	31	12	11	8	38:34	4	47
8	Bristol City	31	13	7	11	43:38	5	46
9	Southampton	32	12	10	10	48:44	4	46
10	Birmingham	32	12	10	10	43:39	4	46
11	Derby	31	12	9	10	45:39	6	45
12	Watford	31	11	11	9	39:36	3	44
13	QPR	31	12	8	11	42:43	-1	44
14	Stoke	31	12	7	12	34:28	6	43
15	Swansea	31	12	6	13	38:37	1	42
16	Norwich	32	11	6	15	42:42	0	39
17	Sheffield Utd	31	12	3	16	44:45	-1	39
18	Charlton	30	9	9	12	29:38	-9	36
19	West Brom	32	9	7	16	32:47	-15	34
20	Portsmouth	29	8	9	12	27:38	-11	33
21	Leicester	32	10	8	14	44:51	-7	32
22	Blackburn	31	8	8	15	27:40	-13	32
23	Oxford Utd	32	6	10	16	28:44	-16	28
24	Sheffield Wed	31	1	8	22	18:62	-44	-7

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