Derby County vs Watford – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

22/11/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Pride Park (Derby).

Championship - Round 16
Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.65	1.48
Ball Possession
38%	62%
Total shots
9	14
Shots on target
2	4
Big Chances
0	3
Corner Kicks
9	3
Passes
65% (173/265)	82% (390/476)
Yellow Cards
2	1
Expected Goals (xG)
0.65	1.48
xG on target (xGOT)
0.94	2.51
Total shots
9	14
Shots on target
2	4
Shots off target
6	3
Blocked Shots
1	7
Shots inside the Box
6	9
Shots outside the Box
3	5
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
1	1
Big Chances
0	3
Corner Kicks
9	3
Touches in opposition box
18	18
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	0
Free Kicks
15	8
Passes
65% (173/265)	82% (390/476)
Long passes
25% (15/60)	39% (24/61)
Passes in final third
50% (51/103)	60% (63/105)
Crosses
24% (7/29)	33% (4/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.66	0.44
Throw-ins
16	23
Fouls
8	15
Tackles
69% (9/13)	33% (2/6)
Duels won
49	40
Clearances
28	33
Interceptions
13	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	0
xGOT faced
2.51	0.94
Goals prevented
-0.49	-1.06

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Morris C. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
35', Baah K. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
36', 1 - 0, Sanderson D. ⚽,
39', Sanderson D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
54', 2 - 0, Langas S. ⚽, Ward J. (A),
58', Brereton Diaz B. 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Kjerrumgaard L. ⚽, Ngakia J. (A),
65', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
65', Kyprianou H. ↓, Semedo V. ↑,
68', Kayembe E. 🟨,
70', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
71', Agyemang P. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
81', Maamma O. ↓, Sissoko M. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Kayembe E. (Pen),
88', 2 - 3, Kayembe E. ⚽, Louza I. (A),
90+1', Langas S. ↓, Thompson L. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Derby County
38%

Draw
29.8%

Watford
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

29.4%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

29.2%

32.9%

Derby County - Watford Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.54)	3.17 ↓ (3.22)	2.93 ↑ (2.86)	5.2% (5.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Derby County - Watford?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Watford will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

DNB - Watford (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Derby County will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 75%). Watford (votes: 1 - 25%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 15).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 0.
Derby has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Watford has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Watford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Derby: Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Thompson L. (Hip Injury) Travis L. (Calf Injury)
There will not play in Watford: Chakvetadze G. (Foot Injury) Grieves J. (Ankle Injury)
There are questionable in Derby: Ozoh D. (Injury)
There are questionable in Watford: Wiley C. (Muscle Injury)
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Derby won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:19. (average 1.8:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 2:1.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Watford?

Derby County has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Watford won against Derby County?

Watford has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Watford were as follows:

18.01.2025 Derby County - Watford 0:2

24.08.2024 Watford - Derby County 2:1

Latest results of Derby County

08.11.2025 Blackburn Rovers - Derby County 1:2 ✺

04.11.2025 Derby County - Hull City 2:1 ✺

01.11.2025 Sheffield United - Derby County 1:3 ✺

25.10.2025 Derby County - Queens Park Rangers 1:0 ✺

21.10.2025 Derby County - Norwich City 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Watford

07.11.2025 Watford - Bristol City 1:1 ✺

04.11.2025 Ipswich Town - Watford 1:1 ✺

01.11.2025 Watford - Middlesbrough 3:0 ✺

25.10.2025 Coventry City - Watford 3:1 ✺

22.10.2025 Watford - West Bromwich Albion 2:1 ✺

English League Championship Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Coventry	28	17	7	4	61:31	30	58
2	Middlesbrough	28	15	7	6	42:29	13	52
3	Ipswich	27	14	8	5	47:24	23	50
4	Hull	27	14	5	8	45:39	6	47
5	Millwall	28	13	7	8	32:35	-3	46
6	Preston	28	11	10	7	36:29	7	43
7	Watford	27	11	9	7	38:32	6	42
8	Stoke	28	12	5	11	33:25	8	41
9	Wrexham	28	10	11	7	40:35	5	41
10	Derby	28	11	8	9	38:36	2	41
11	Bristol City	28	11	7	10	38:31	7	40
12	QPR	28	11	7	10	38:39	-1	40
13	Birmingham	28	10	8	10	38:37	1	38
14	Leicester	28	10	8	10	39:41	-2	38
15	Southampton	28	9	9	10	40:40	0	36
16	Swansea	28	10	6	12	31:35	-4	36
17	Sheffield Utd	27	10	2	15	36:40	-4	32
18	Charlton	27	8	8	11	27:34	-7	32
19	West Brom	28	9	4	15	31:43	-12	31
20	Norwich	28	8	6	14	35:40	-5	30
21	Portsmouth	26	7	8	11	23:36	-13	29
22	Blackburn	27	7	7	13	25:36	-11	28
23	Oxford Utd	27	5	9	13	25:35	-10	24
24	Sheffield Wed	27	1	8	18	18:54	-36	-7

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      Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Relegation ~ League One