Result
2:3
22/11/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 16
- Referee: Ward G. (Eng)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.65 | 1.48 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 65% (173/265) | 82% (390/476) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.65 | 1.48 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 2.51 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 65% (173/265) | 82% (390/476) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 25% (15/60) | 39% (24/61) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 50% (51/103) | 60% (63/105) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (7/29) | 33% (4/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 0.44 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (9/13) | 33% (2/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.51 | 0.94 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.49 | -1.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 18', Morris C. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
- 35', Baah K. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
- 36', 1 - 0, Sanderson D. ⚽,
- 39', Sanderson D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 3)
- 54', 2 - 0, Langas S. ⚽, Ward J. (A),
- 58', Brereton Diaz B. 🟨,
- 61', 2 - 1, Kjerrumgaard L. ⚽, Ngakia J. (A),
- 65', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
- 65', Kyprianou H. ↓, Semedo V. ↑,
- 68', Kayembe E. 🟨,
- 70', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
- 71', Agyemang P. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
- 81', Maamma O. ↓, Sissoko M. ↑,
- 85', 2 - 2, Kayembe E. (Pen),
- 88', 2 - 3, Kayembe E. ⚽, Louza I. (A),
- 90+1', Langas S. ↓, Thompson L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Derby County
38% | Draw
29.8% | Watford
32.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Derby County - Watford Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.53 ↓
(2.54) |
3.17 ↓
(3.22) |
2.93 ↑
(2.86) |
5.2%
(5.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Derby County - Watford?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Watford will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 50.5% – 99.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Derby County will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 0.
- Derby has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Watford has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Watford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Derby: Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Thompson L.
(Hip Injury)
Travis L.
(Calf Injury)
- There will not play in Watford: Chakvetadze G.
(Foot Injury)
Grieves J.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Derby: Ozoh D.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Watford: Wiley C.
(Muscle Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Derby won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:19. (average 1.8:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 2:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Watford?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Watford won against Derby County?
Watford has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Watford were as follows:
18.01.2025
Derby County
-
Watford
0:2
24.08.2024
Watford
-
Derby County
2:1
Latest results of Derby County
Latest results of Watford
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 54:25 | 29 | 51 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 33:25 | 8 | 43 |
| 3 | Ipswich | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 40:23 | 17 | 41 |
| 4 | Hull | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 40:37 | 3 | 41 |
| 5 | Millwall | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 27:32 | -5 | 39 |
| 6 | Watford | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 34:29 | 5 | 38 |
| 7 | Preston | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 31:25 | 6 | 37 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 33:27 | 6 | 36 |
| 9 | QPR | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 34:37 | -3 | 35 |
| 10 | Stoke | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 29:23 | 6 | 34 |
| 11 | Wrexham | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 34:31 | 3 | 34 |
| 12 | Leicester | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 34:34 | 0 | 34 |
| 13 | Southampton | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 38:34 | 4 | 32 |
| 14 | Derby | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 0 | 32 |
| 15 | Birmingham | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 32:31 | 1 | 31 |
| 16 | West Brom | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 28:32 | -4 | 31 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 33:37 | -4 | 29 |
| 18 | Swansea | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 25:31 | -6 | 29 |
| 19 | Blackburn | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 22:26 | -4 | 27 |
| 20 | Charlton | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 27 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 21:30 | -9 | 25 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 24:33 | -9 | 22 |
| 23 | Norwich | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 26:36 | -10 | 21 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 23 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 18:45 | -27 | -7 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
