Result
0:0
02/05/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 14
- Referee: Sampaio S. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Colombia | Win play |
 Ecuador | Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 0.89 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (290/368) | 87% (379/436) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 0.89 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (290/368) | 87% (379/436) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (21/52) | 49% (20/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (58/96) | 73% (80/110) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (3/12) | 22% (5/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.47 | 0.97 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (7/16) | 67% (12/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.52 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 20', Viveros K. 🟨,
- 33', Esquivel L. 🟥,
- 35', Joao Cruz ↓, Leo Derik ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Enamorado J. ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
- 46', Gabriel Mec ↓, Riquelme ↑,
- 51', Nardoni J. ↓, Willian ↑,
- 63', Bruninho ↓, Dudu Kogitzki ↑,
- 64', Portilla J. ↓, Diogo Riquelme ↑,
- 65', Braithwaite M. ↓, Tete ↑,
- 72', Riquelme 🟨,
- 78', Hellmann O. 🟨,
- 84', Benavidez G. 🟨,
- 84', Riquelme 🟨,
Chances of winning
Athletico Paranaense
52.4% | Draw
26.7% | Grêmio
21% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletico Paranaense's performance.Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-8.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletico Paranaense that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+5.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.81 ↓
(2.03) |
3.53 ↑
(3.17) |
4.51 ↑
(3.58) |
5.7%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio?
Users Predictions:
Athletico Paranaense will win
(12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 2.
- Athletico PR has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Grêmio is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Athletico PR is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Athletico PR: Luiz Gustavo
(Yellow Cards)
Zapelli B.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Grêmio: Arthur Melo
(Thigh Injury)
Carlos Vinicius
(Yellow Cards)
Joao Pedro
(Muscle Injury)
Marlon
(Broken ankle)
Viery
(Yellow Cards)
Villasanti M.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Athletico PR won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:28. (average 1:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Athletico PR won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.7:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Athletico Paranaense won against Grêmio?
Athletico Paranaense has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio won against Athletico Paranaense?
Grêmio has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Athletico Paranaense - Grêmio were as follows:
04.08.2024
Athletico Paranaense
-
Grêmio
0:2
17.04.2024
Grêmio
-
Athletico Paranaense
2:0
18.10.2023
Grêmio
-
Athletico Paranaense
1:2
27.05.2023
Athletico Paranaense
-
Grêmio
1:2
Latest results of Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 24:11 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:12 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 23:18 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19:13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20:15 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Bahia | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19:16 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17:16 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Vitoria | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 25:26 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Internacional | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14:14 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Vasco | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20:21 | -1 | 17 |
| 14 | Gremio | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Cruzeiro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18:24 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Santos | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 19:22 | -3 | 15 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 15 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15:19 | -4 | 12 |
| 19 | Remo | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:24 | -9 | 11 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13:26 | -13 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
