St. Pauli vs Mainz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

03/05/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg).

Bundesliga - Round 32
Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	MBC Action
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5P
Brazil	Caze TV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Italy	Sky Sport 253
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, PPTV Sports
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.86	2.35
Ball possession
52%	48%
Total shots
10	17
Shots on target
3	6
Big chances
3	5
Corner kicks
7	7
Passes
84% (412/493)	81% (378/465)
Yellow cards
3	1
Expected goals (xG)
0.86	2.35
xG on target (xGOT)
0.35	1.71
Total shots
10	17
Shots on target
3	6
Shots off target
5	4
Blocked shots
2	7
Shots inside the box
7	15
Shots outside the box
3	2
Hit the woodwork
0	1
Big chances
3	5
Corner kicks
7	7
Touches in opposition box
18	36
Accurate through passes
1	1
Offsides
1	4
Free kicks
8	10
Passes
84% (412/493)	81% (378/465)
Long passes
50% (29/58)	34% (22/64)
Passes in final third
66% (89/134)	68% (79/116)
Crosses
26% (6/23)	36% (4/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.94	1.51
Throw ins
24	23
Fouls
10	8
Tackles
80% (12/15)	60% (9/15)
Duels won
46	53
Clearances
29	30
Interceptions
6	9
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper saves
3	1
xGOT faced
1.71	0.35
Goals prevented
-0.29	-0.65

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Tietz P. ⚽, Becker S. (A),
40', 0 - 2, Mwene P. ⚽, Widmer S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
46', Sinani D. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
65', Smith E. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
65', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
68', Batz D. 🟨,
72', Becker S. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
76', Potulski K. ↓, Kohr D. ↑,
77', Widmer S. ↓, Caci A. ↑,
84', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
84', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
84', Irvine J. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Ceesay A. ⚽, Kaars M. (A),
88', Mets K. 🟨,
90+1', Metcalfe C. 🟨,
90+4', Ceesay A. 🟨,

Chances of winning

St. Pauli
33.5%

Draw
29.1%

Mainz
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

29.2%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

30.1%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

St. Pauli - Mainz Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (2.95)	3.27 ↑ (3.24)	2.55 ↑ (2.44)	5.1% (5.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for St. Pauli - Mainz?

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Mainz will win (votes: 14 - 51.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 29.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 33.1% – 70.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 10).
The current form of both teams is below expectations.
Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
There will not play in St. Pauli: Jones R.J. (Ankle Injury) Pereira Lage M. (Knee Injury) Sands J. (Ankle Injury)
There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lee Jae-Sung (Toe Injury) Leitsch M. (Thigh Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone)
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:1.7).
Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Mainz?

St. Pauli has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Mainz won against St. Pauli?

Mainz has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - Mainz were as follows:

21.12.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 0:0

22.02.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 2:0

05.10.2024 St. Pauli - Mainz 0:3

Latest results of St. Pauli

25.04.2026 Heidenheim - St. Pauli 2:0 ✺

17.04.2026 St. Pauli - Köln 1:1 ✺

11.04.2026 St. Pauli - Bayern Munich 0:5 ✺

05.04.2026 Union Berlin - St. Pauli 1:1 ✺

22.03.2026 St. Pauli - Freiburg 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Mainz

25.04.2026 Mainz - Bayern Munich 3:4 ✺

19.04.2026 Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz 1:1 ✺

16.04.2026 Strasbourg - Mainz 4:0 ✺

12.04.2026 Mainz - Freiburg 0:1 ✺

09.04.2026 Mainz - Strasbourg 2:0 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich ✔	32	26	5	1	116:35	81	83
2	Dortmund	32	20	7	5	65:32	33	67
3	RB Leipzig	32	19	5	8	63:42	21	62
4	Bayer Leverkusen	32	17	7	8	66:43	23	58
5	Stuttgart	32	17	7	8	66:46	20	58
6	Hoffenheim	32	17	7	8	64:48	16	58
7	Freiburg	32	12	8	12	45:53	-8	44
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	32	11	10	11	57:60	-3	43
9	Augsburg	32	11	7	14	42:56	-14	40
10	Mainz	32	9	10	13	41:50	-9	37
11	B. Monchengladbach	32	8	11	13	37:50	-13	35
12	Hamburger SV	32	8	10	14	36:51	-15	34
13	Union Berlin	32	8	9	15	37:57	-20	33
14	FC Koln	32	7	11	14	47:55	-8	32
15	Werder Bremen	32	8	8	16	37:57	-20	32
16	Wolfsburg	32	6	8	18	42:67	-25	26
17	St. Pauli	32	6	8	18	27:55	-28	26
18	Heidenheim	32	5	8	19	38:69	-31	23

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

Clinched Spots for Teams

Bayern Munich is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )