Result
22/04/2026 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 16
- Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, FOX Sports |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
Chances of winning
Mazatlan
15% | Draw
19.5% | Toluca
65.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mazatlan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mazatlan than the current prediction. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-3.3%)
Mazatlan - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.16 ↑
(5.1) |
4.8 ↑
(4.25) |
1.43 ↓
(1.45) |
7.1%
(12.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 1.
- Mazatlan is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Toluca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Mazatlan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Toluca is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Gallardo J.
(Yellow Cards)
Helinho
(Red Card)
Pereira F.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Mazatlan: Castro C.
(Injury)
Sierra J.
(Injury)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Mazatlan won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:28. (average 1.2:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mazatlan won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Mazatlan won against Toluca?
Mazatlan has won 2 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Mazatlan?
Toluca has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mazatlan - Toluca were as follows:
27.09.2025
Toluca
-
Mazatlan
3:1
24.01.2025
Mazatlan
-
Toluca
2:1
04.01.2025
Mazatlan
-
Toluca
1:3
17.07.2024
Toluca
-
Mazatlan
3:0
20.01.2024
Toluca
-
Mazatlan
4:1
Latest results of Mazatlan
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas ✔ | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 33:17 | 16 | 34 |
| 2 | UNAM Pumas ✔ | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32:17 | 15 | 33 |
| 3 | Pachuca ✔ | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 24:14 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul ✔ | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27:17 | 10 | 30 |
| 5 | Toluca ✔ | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 21:11 | 10 | 27 |
| 6 | Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20:16 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Atlas | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | Club Leon | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 21:28 | -7 | 22 |
| 9 | Tigres UANL | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23:17 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 16:16 | 0 | 19 |
| 11 | Monterrey | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 22:21 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 18:21 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Queretaro | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 15:20 | -5 | 17 |
| 14 | Juarez | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 24:31 | -7 | 16 |
| 15 | Atl. San Luis | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 21:25 | -4 | 15 |
| 16 | Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12:24 | -12 | 13 |
| 17 | Mazatlan FC | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 17:29 | -12 | 12 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17:36 | -19 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Guadalajara Chivas is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
UNAM Pumas is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Pachuca is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
