Result
0:3
22/12/2025 at 13:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 15
- Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+, ESPN 4 |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Croatia | SportKlub 3 |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6 |
 Denmark | Bold+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free |
 Georgia | Silk Sport 1 |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 2 |
 Hungary | Sport 2 |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 4 |
 Norway | VG+ |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 1 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 4 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 1 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1 |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.45 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (255/321) | 89% (439/494) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.45 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 2.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (255/321) | 89% (439/494) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (19/50) | 59% (24/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (61/89) | 77% (114/148) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (5/19) | 24% (4/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.56 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 13 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (11/22) | 47% (9/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.06 | 0.63 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.94 | 0.63 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 29', 0 - 1, Sainz B. ⚽, Mora R. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Costa A. ↓, Moura F. ↑,
- 57', 0 - 2, Varela A. ⚽,
- 59', Pepê ↓, William Gomes ↑,
- 59', Mora R. ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
- 63', Sainz B. 🟨,
- 67', Marezi ↓, Leite T. ↑,
- 69', 0 - 3, Sainz B. ⚽, Moura F. (A),
- 73', Lincoln ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
- 75', Varela A. ↓, Eustaquio S. ↑,
- 80', Sainz B. ↓, Gul D. ↑,
- 84', Figueiredo ↓, Felipe Lima ↑,
- 84', Amorim ↓, Gui D. ↑,
- 85', Abdulai S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Alverca
10.4% | Draw
19.1% | Porto
70.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-1.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+5%)
Alverca - Porto Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
9.11 ↓
(9.66) |
4.92 ↑
(4.75) |
1.34
(1.34) |
5.8%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Alverca - Porto?
Users Predictions:
27 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). Porto will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 62.1% – 93.5%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- DNB - Porto (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- EH -1 - Porto (1.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- EH -2 - Porto (1.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Porto (1.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Porto (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Porto (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Porto (1.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Porto (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1.5 - Porto (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Porto will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 17 high ROI users predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Porto (votes: 16 - 94.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- Alverca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Porto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Porto has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Porto is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Alverca: Chiquinho
(Injury)
Diarra S.
(Muscle Injury)
Leo Chu
(Injury)
Mendes T.
(Muscle Injury)
Paulo A.
(Inactive)
Sandro Lima
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Porto: Bednarek J.
(Yellow Cards)
Perez N.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Zaidu
(International duty)
de Jong L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Alverca: Gomez S.
(Inactive)
- Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Porto?
Alverca has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Porto won against Alverca?
Porto has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alverca - Porto were as follows:
Latest results of Alverca
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
