Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Atlético La Paz – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Mexican Liga de Expansion MX Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz
Result
4:1
21/03/2025 at 23:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • MEXICO: Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 11
  • Referee: Barba A. (Mex)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoESPN 4
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldDisney+

Match Stats

Ball Possession
60%40%
Goal Attempts
156
Shots on Goal
83
Shots off Goal
73
Corner Kicks
103
Goalkeeper Saves
24
Yellow Cards
42

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 1)
  • 4', Alaffita Garcia E. J. 🟨,
  • 18', 1 - 0, Escoto A. ,
  • 28', 1 - 1, Gomez Del Rosal N. (Pen),
  • 36', 2 - 1, Escoto A. ,
  • 40', 3 - 1, Alvarez D. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 57', Vazquez I. , Galindo A. ,
  • 57', Alaffita Garcia E. J. , Zurita Jimenez U. ,
  • 61', Escoto A. 🟨,
  • 64', Escoto A. , Lorona L. ,
  • 67', Saavedra J. 🟨,
  • 69', Hernandez E. , Hernandez D. ,
  • 69', Jaimes U. , Cota A. ,
  • 70', Tamay A. , Cardona U. ,
  • 70', Alvarez D. , Machado J. ,
  • 74', Gomez Del Rosal N. , Arana J. ,
  • 74', 4 - 1, Lorona L. ,
  • 80', Saavedra J. , Gonzalez Mendivil J. E. ,
  • 80', Aguilar M. , Vallejo M. ,
  • 81', Soto A. 🟨,
  • 83', Gutierrez L. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Pastrana E. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Tepatitlán de Morelos
64.5%
Draw
21.1%
Atlético La Paz
14.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
67.9% 19.3% 12.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48% 13.6% 18.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)
  • Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tepatitlán de Morelos than the current prediction. (-16.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tepatitlán de Morelos that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
  • Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.43
    (1.36)
    4.39
    (4.78)
    6.38
    (7.2)
    8.2%
    (8.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz?
  • Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Tepatitlán will win (votes: 7 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 14).
    • The competitors look crappy now.
    • Atlético La Paz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • In this match Tepatitlán is absolute favorite.
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Tepatitlán won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13:5 (average 2.6:1).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Tepatitlán won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:0 (average 3.5:0).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz were as follows:
    04.10.2024 Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos 2:5
    23.01.2024 Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos 2:0
    05.10.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz 4:0
    15.01.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz 3:0
    Latest results of Tepatitlán de Morelos
    Latest results of Atlético La Paz
    Mexican Liga de Expansion MX Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Irapuato11004:133
    2Tapatio11002:023
    3Tampico Madero11001:013
    4Cancun11001:013
    5Atlante10101:101
    6Atl. Morelia10101:101
    7Correcaminos10101:101
    8Tlaxcala10101:101
    9Zacatecas Mineros10101:101
    10Tepatitlan de Morelos10101:101
    11Alebrijes Oaxaca00000:000
    12Dorados de Sinaloa10010:1-10
    13Leones Negros10010:1-10
    14Atletico La Paz10010:2-20
    15Venados10011:4-30

          Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)