Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

17/05/2025 at 01:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Best Denki Stadium (Fukuoka).

J1 League - Round 17
Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.29	1.10
Ball Possession
50%	50%
Total shots
7	12
Shots on target
3	3
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
4	4
Passes
76% (302/396)	75% (292/391)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.29	1.10
xG on target (xGOT)
0.53	1.22
Total shots
7	12
Shots on target
3	3
Shots off target
3	7
Blocked Shots
1	2
Shots inside the Box
5	6
Shots outside the Box
2	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
4	4
Touches in opposition box
15	13
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
20	15
Passes
76% (302/396)	75% (292/391)
Long passes
37% (26/71)	31% (22/71)
Passes in final third
65% (93/142)	61% (72/118)
Crosses
20% (3/15)	21% (4/19)
Expected assists (xA)
0.33	1.07
Throw-ins
15	21
Fouls
15	20
Tackles
50% (7/14)	67% (6/9)
Duels won
67	40
Clearances
27	19
Interceptions
7	9
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	2
xGOT faced
1.22	0.53
Goals prevented
0.22	-0.47

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Shiihashi K. 🟨,
60', Mateus 🟨,
64', Matsuoka D. 🟨,
65', Mateus ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
65', Izumi R. ↓, Asano Y. ↑,
73', Konno K. ↓, Fujimoto K. ↑,
73', Shigemi M. ↓, Akino H. ↑,
77', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Morishima T. ↑,
79', Iwasaki Y. ↓, Kanamori T. ↑,
79', Maejima Y. ↓, Yuzawa M. ↑,
81', 0 - 1, Tokumoto S. ⚽, Nakayama K. (A),
84', Nakayama K. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
84', Tokumoto S. ↓, Uchida T. ↑,
86', Nago S. ↓, Hashimoto Y. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, Kanamori T. ⚽, Fujimoto K. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning

Avispa Fukuoka
33.1%

Draw
33.1%

Nagoya Grampus
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

31.6%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

31.3%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avispa Fukuoka's form might have worsened.

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nagoya Grampus's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Avispa Fukuoka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nagoya Grampus, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.36)	2.84 ↓ (2.98)	2.78 ↓ (3.29)	6.3% (6.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

What is the prediction for Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus?

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Nagoya will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avispa Fukuoka: 19% – 81%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 17).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 4.
Recent form of Avispa Fukuoka has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Nagoya's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Avispa Fukuoka: Hisashi J. (Knee Injury) Ikeda J. (Knee Injury) Oda I. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Nagoya: Schmidt D. (Knee Injury)
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 12:18. (average 0.8:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Avispa Fukuoka won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.3:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Avispa Fukuoka won against Nagoya Grampus?

Avispa Fukuoka has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Nagoya Grampus won against Avispa Fukuoka?

Nagoya Grampus has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus were as follows:

04.10.2024 Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus 1:0

07.04.2024 Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka 0:0

15.10.2023 Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka 0:1

11.10.2023 Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus 1:0

16.09.2023 Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus 1:0

Latest results of Avispa Fukuoka

10.05.2025 Yokohama FC - Avispa Fukuoka 1:0 ✺

06.05.2025 Avispa Fukuoka - Kashima Antlers 0:1 ✺

03.05.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka 2:1 ✺

29.04.2025 Shonan Bellmare - Avispa Fukuoka 0:0 ✺

25.04.2025 Avispa Fukuoka - Fagiano Okayama 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Nagoya Grampus

11.05.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Nagoya Grampus 1:1 ✺

06.05.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama 0:0 ✺

03.05.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse - Nagoya Grampus 0:3 ✺

29.04.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Kashiwa Reysol 1:2 ✺

25.04.2025 Kashima Antlers - Nagoya Grampus 1:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	25	15	2	8	37:24	13	47
2	Kashiwa Reysol	25	13	8	4	35:23	12	47
3	Vissel Kobe	25	14	4	7	34:24	10	46
4	Kyoto	25	13	6	6	42:30	12	45
5	Machida	25	13	4	8	36:25	11	43
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	25	13	4	8	29:18	11	43
7	Urawa Reds	25	11	8	6	34:25	9	41
8	Kawasaki Frontale	25	10	8	7	40:31	9	38
9	Cerezo Osaka	25	10	7	8	40:34	6	37
10	Avispa Fukuoka	25	9	8	8	26:25	1	35
11	Gamba Osaka	25	10	4	11	29:34	-5	34
12	Okayama	25	9	6	10	23:22	1	33
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	25	8	7	10	29:32	-3	31
14	Verdy	25	8	7	10	16:24	-8	31
15	FC Tokyo	25	8	5	12	27:35	-8	29
16	Nagoya Grampus	25	7	7	11	29:35	-6	28
17	Shonan Bellmare	25	6	6	13	20:39	-19	24
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	25	5	6	14	23:33	-10	21
19	Yokohama FC	25	5	4	16	15:32	-17	19
20	Albirex Niigata	25	4	7	14	25:44	-19	19

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