Result
3:2
26/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 45
- Referee: Nield T. (Eng)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.71 | 1.78 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 64% (157/245) | 68% (219/320) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.71 | 1.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.72 | 2.38 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 50 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 64% (157/245) | 68% (219/320) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (23/70) | 28% (18/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (77/120) | 58% (77/133) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (5/27) | 19% (5/26) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 1.47 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 31 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 52% (11/21) | 62% (13/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 77 | 70 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 46 | 51 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.38 | 1.72 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.38 | -1.28 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 6', Dennis M. 🟨,
- 29', 0 - 1, Dennis M. ⚽,
- 32', Breeze G. 🟨,
- 33', 1 - 1, Thomas J. (Pen),
- 33', Hayden A. 🟨,
- 45', 2 - 1, Hay A. ⚽, Archer E. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 59', Haynes R. ↓, Power D. ↑,
- 59', Dulson L. ↓, Miller G. ↑,
- 59', Backwell T. ↓, Dieng T. ↑,
- 68', Ellis J. ↓, Vela J. ↑,
- 68', Wearne S. ↓, Embleton E. ↑,
- 74', 2 - 2, Kelly G. ⚽, Embleton E. (A),
- 78', Bradbury T. ↓, Bakare I. ↑,
- 79', Hay A. ↓, Taylor M. ↑,
- 79', Fusire S. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
- 79', Harper C. ↓, Dummett P. ↑,
- 82', Jude-Boyd A. 🟨,
- 90+3', 3 - 2, Miller G. ⚽, Taylor M. (A),
Chances of winning
Cheltenham Town
34.9% | Draw
26.6% | Carlisle United
38.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cheltenham Town's form might have worsened.Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carlisle United's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cheltenham Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-6.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlisle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Cheltenham Town - Carlisle United Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.7 ↑
(2.25) |
3.53 ↑
(3.48) |
2.45 ↓
(2.95) |
6.3%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Cheltenham Town - Carlisle United?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Cheltenham will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Carlisle will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carlisle: 29.6% – 90.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Carlisle United will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 16 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Cheltenham won 3.
- Recent matches Cheltenham is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- Carlisle is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Carlisle could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
- The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
- There will not play in Cheltenham: Pell H.
(Knee Injury)
Power D.
(Hamstring Injury)
Young L.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Carlisle: Davies A.
(Injury)
Dummett P.
(Hamstring Injury)
Jones J.
(Inactive)
McGeouch D.
(Inactive)
Williams J.
(Injury)
Wyke Ch.
(Broken ankle)
- There are questionable in Cheltenham: Bowman R.
(Inactive)
- Last 15 head-to-head matches Cheltenham won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 10:12 (average 0.7:0.8).
- Including matches at home between the teams Cheltenham won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:4 (average 0.6:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Cheltenham Town won against Carlisle United?
Cheltenham Town has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Carlisle United won against Cheltenham Town?
Carlisle United has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cheltenham Town - Carlisle United were as follows:
26.10.2024
Carlisle United
-
Cheltenham Town
0:1
09.04.2024
Cheltenham Town
-
Carlisle United
0:1
23.12.2023
Carlisle United
-
Cheltenham Town
0:1
Latest results of Cheltenham Town
Latest results of Carlisle United
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 35 | 19 | 12 | 4 | 58:35 | 23 | 69 |
| 2 | Cambridge Utd | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 49:27 | 22 | 64 |
| 3 | MK Dons | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 63:34 | 29 | 62 |
| 4 | Swindon | 35 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 57:41 | 16 | 62 |
| 5 | Notts Co | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52:33 | 19 | 61 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 35 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 55:44 | 11 | 56 |
| 7 | Crewe | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 52:41 | 11 | 56 |
| 8 | Grimsby | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 49:38 | 11 | 55 |
| 9 | Salford | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 47:46 | 1 | 55 |
| 10 | Barnet | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 44:37 | 7 | 53 |
| 11 | Walsall | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 42:37 | 5 | 53 |
| 12 | Colchester | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 48:38 | 10 | 49 |
| 13 | Fleetwood | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44:42 | 2 | 48 |
| 14 | Oldham | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 36:30 | 6 | 46 |
| 15 | Accrington | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 37:36 | 1 | 46 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 41:41 | 0 | 44 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 34:54 | -20 | 38 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 34:55 | -21 | 36 |
| 19 | Tranmere | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 47:62 | -15 | 35 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 33:57 | -24 | 31 |
| 21 | Crawley | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 33:56 | -23 | 28 |
| 22 | Newport | 35 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 35:61 | -26 | 28 |
| 23 | Barrow | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 33:51 | -18 | 27 |
| 24 | Harrogate | 35 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25:52 | -27 | 27 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
