Jong AZ Alkmaar vs De Graafschap – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Dutch Eerste Divisie Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap
Result
1:3
22/09/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Eerste Divisie - Round 7
  • Referee: Kuipers J. (Ned)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
netherlandsNetherlandsCanal+, ESPN 3

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.503.27
Ball Possession
56%44%
Total shots
921
Shots on target
28
Big Chances
07
Corner Kicks
39
Passes
84% (385/459)76% (269/355)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
0.503.27
xG on target (xGOT)
0.313.11
Total shots
921
Shots on target
28
Shots off target
68
Blocked Shots
15
Shots inside the Box
617
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
02
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
07
Corner Kicks
39
Touches in opposition box
1434
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
35
Free Kicks
1511
Passes
84% (385/459)76% (269/355)
Long passes
55% (41/74)59% (39/66)
Passes in final third
75% (95/126)63% (67/107)
Crosses
14% (2/14)35% (7/20)
Expected assists (xA)
0.411.96
Throw-ins
1626
Fouls
1115
Tackles
65% (15/23)82% (9/11)
Duels won
5543
Clearances
2120
Interceptions
411
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
3.110.31
Goals prevented
0.11-0.69

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 37', Robbemond R. 🟨,
  • 43', 0 - 1, Niemeijer R. , Simons J. (A),
  • 45', Raterink O. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 46', Inge K. , Zwart J. ,
  • 47', 0 - 2, Boersma B. ,
  • 53', Niemeijer R. 🟨,
  • 59', 1 - 2, van Duijn S. , Menu M. (A),
  • 62', Boersma B. , Theodoridis D. ,
  • 62', Simons J. , van der Heide A. ,
  • 69', Robbemond R. , van den Ban Y. ,
  • 69', Hartog J. , Mastoras E. ,
  • 74', 1 - 3, Raterink O. , El Kadiri I. (A),
  • 79', Symons K. , Schoppema L. ,
  • 79', El Kadiri I. , de Jong F. ,
  • 87', Toppenberg K. , van der Klaauw D. ,
  • 88', Meerstadt J. , Braem T. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Jong AZ Alkmaar
29.6%
Draw
25.4%
De Graafschap
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
35% 24.7% 40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3% 23.8% 38.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Jong AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jong AZ Alkmaar's form might have worsened.
  • De Graafschap has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+6.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jong AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for De Graafschap than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for De Graafschap, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.59
    (2.65)
    3.98
    (3.75)
    2.21
    (2.3)
    -1.7%
    (7.9%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
  • What is the prediction for Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Jong AZ will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). De Graafschap will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Jong AZ: 35%88%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. De Graafschap (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 and 17).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 1.
    • Both teams are struggling and far from their best.
    • De Graafschap may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, De Graafschap has had a series of home games.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.6:1.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Jong AZ won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:10. (average 2.6:1.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap were as follows:
    21.02.2025 De Graafschap - Jong AZ Alkmaar 5:1
    23.09.2024 Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap 2:2
    29.03.2024 De Graafschap - Jong AZ Alkmaar 2:1
    23.10.2023 Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap 3:0
    03.04.2023 Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap 0:1
    Latest results of Jong AZ Alkmaar
    Latest results of De Graafschap
    12.09.2025 De Graafschap - Willem II 1:1
    05.09.2025 De Graafschap - Emmen 2:3
    15.08.2025 Roda - De Graafschap 1:0
    08.08.2025 De Graafschap - VVV-Venlo 3:2
    Dutch Eerste Divisie Table
    Main
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Den Haag761018:61219
    2Cambuur861117:9819
    3Jong PSV860218:10818
    4Roda842212:12014
    5Dordrecht833211:9212
    6Venlo840414:14012
    7Willem II73228:10-211
    8Waalwijk832312:11111
    9Den Bosch731317:16110
    10Oss831414:16-210
    11FC Emmen831411:14-310
    12Helmond83149:12-310
    13Eindhoven FC83146:11-510
    14Almere City730416:1069
    15De Graafschap722310:1008
    16Jong AZ821512:15-37
    17Jong Utrecht821512:18-67
    18Maastricht82154:11-77
    19Jong Ajax812513:18-55
    20Vitesse31114:6-2-8

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