Result
1:2 penalties
05/03/2026 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Copa Sudamericana - Qualification - Final
- Referee: Burgos J. (Uru)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Bolivia | Tigo Sports 1 |
 Brazil | Paramount+ |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 Chile | DirecTV Sports |
 Ecuador | DirecTV Sports |
 Georgia | Silk Universal |
 Italy | Como TV |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports |
 Peru | DirecTV Sports |
 South-america | DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America |
 Uruguay | DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV |
 Venezuela | DirecTV Sports, DSPORTS+ Plus |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.14 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (318/401) | 77% (251/326) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.14 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.94 | 0.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 6 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (318/401) | 77% (251/326) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (15/46) | 50% (18/36) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (75/115) | 49% (26/53) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 10% (3/30) | 38% (3/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 0.11 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 37 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (12/19) | 74% (14/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.22 | 1.94 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.78 | 0.94 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 9', Santa C. R. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
- 31', Gutierrez T. ↓, Benitez G. ↑,
- 45', Benitez G. 🟨,
- 45+1', Franco A. 🟨,
- 45+4', 0 - 1, Parzajuk K. ⚽, Franco A. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Jara F. ↓, Prieto R. ↑,
- 46', Samudio A. ↓, Colman Escobar D. J. ↑,
- 50', Canete Torres A. D. 🟨,
- 70', Parzajuk K. ↓, Lopez H. ↑,
- 70', Gonzalez A. ↓, Ferreira B. ↑,
- 70', Rios P. ↓, Piris I. ↑,
- 79', Feliu J. ↓, Benitez H. A. ↑,
- 81', Echeguren Zarza F. A. ↓, Figueredo C. ↑,
- 85', 1 - 1, Valdez I. ⚽, Benitez H. A. (A),
- 88', Valdez I. 🟨,
- 90', Espinola J. 🟨,
- 90+3', Ferreira N. 🟨,
- 90+4', Ferreira N. ↓, Toledo O. ↑,
- Penalties (4 - 5)
- 1, Bailone I. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Garay C. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Prieto R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Baez W. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Valdez I. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Espinola J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Benitez H. A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Ferreira B. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Colman Escobar D. J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Franco A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 6, Gaona Lugo O. (Penalty Awarded),
- 6, Piris I. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Nacional Asuncion
52.8% | Draw
27.9% | Deportivo Recoleta
19.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)Deportivo Recoleta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Recoleta than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.77 ↓
(1.9) |
3.37 ↑
(3.28) |
4.79 ↑
(4.43) |
7.2%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Recoleta (3.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Nacional Asuncion will win
(12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Nacional Asuncion will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 3 - 60%). Recoleta (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- In this match, Nacional is the team to beat.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional Asuncion won against Deportivo Recoleta?
Nacional Asuncion has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Deportivo Recoleta won against Nacional Asuncion?
Deportivo Recoleta has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta were as follows:
26.02.2026
Deportivo Recoleta
-
Nacional Asuncion
2:2
27.11.2025
Deportivo Recoleta
-
Nacional Asuncion
0:0
06.09.2025
Nacional Asuncion
-
Deportivo Recoleta
1:0
21.04.2025
Nacional Asuncion
-
Deportivo Recoleta
1:1
08.02.2025
Deportivo Recoleta
-
Nacional Asuncion
1:0
Latest results of Nacional Asuncion
Latest results of Deportivo Recoleta
Draw
2026Final| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | Recoleta | 1 : 2 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 : 1 |
| 3 | Alianza Atl. | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Cienciano | FBC Melgar | 2 : 1 |
| 5 | Montevideo City | Defensor Sp. | 1 : 0 |
| 6 | Boston River | Racing Montevideo | 1 : 0 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas | 1 : 0 |
| 8 | Caracas | Metropolitanos | 1 : 0 |
| 9 | U. De Chile | Palestino | 1 : 2 |
| 10 | Cobresal | A. Italiano | 1 : 2 |
| 11 | Atl. Nacional | Millonarios | 1 : 3 |
| 12 | America De Cali | Bucaramanga | 2 : 1 |
| 13 | Independiente | Guabira | 1 : 0 |
| 14 | Blooming | SA Bulo Bulo | 3 : 0 |
| 15 | Dep. Cuenca | Libertad | 3 : 0 |
| 16 | Orense | Macara | 0 : 1 |
