Result
1:0
01/01/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- League One - Round 24
- Referee: Russell M. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 0.26 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (264/345) | 86% (496/577) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 0.26 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (264/345) | 86% (496/577) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (31/80) | 37% (21/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (80/128) | 72% (129/178) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (6/15) | 4% (1/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.70 | 0.50 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 29 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 52% (11/21) | 90% (9/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 34 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 1.64 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | 0.64 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 25', Doyle-Hayes J. 🟨,
- 29', Cox S. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 50', 1 - 0, Sweeney P. ⚽,
- 62', Yates J. ↓, Wells N. ↑,
- 62', Morris S. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
- 63', Cox S. ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
- 67', Brown J. 🟨,
- 70', Doyle-Hayes J. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
- 76', Saville G. ↓, Fanne L. ↑,
- 76', Walters R. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
- 78', Brierley E. 🟨,
- 88', Aitchison J. ↓, Woodhouse L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Exeter City
26.9% | Draw
27.8% | Luton Town
45.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
Exeter City - Luton Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.5 ↓
(3.6) |
3.35 ↑
(3.2) |
2.06 ↑
(2) |
6.9%
(9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Exeter City - Luton Town?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Luton Town will win
(8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 1.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Luton will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Exeter: Andrew D.
(Inactive)
Borges P.
(Knee Injury)
Magennis J.
(Inactive)
Rydel R.
(Inactive)
Turns E.
(Inactive)
Yfeko J.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E.
(Knee Injury)
Al Hamadi A.
(Inactive)
Baptiste S.
(Knee Injury)
Jones I.
(Injury)
Nakamba M.
(International duty)
Richards J.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Luton: Naismith K.
(Inactive)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:23. (average 1:2.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 1:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Exeter City won against Luton Town?
Exeter City has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Exeter City?
Luton Town has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Exeter City - Luton Town were as follows:
02.12.2025
Luton Town
-
Exeter City
4:0
26.09.2023
Exeter City
-
Luton Town
1:0
Latest results of Exeter City
Latest results of Luton Town
English League One Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cardiff | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 68:36 | 32 | 72 |
| 2 | Lincoln | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 63:31 | 32 | 71 |
| 3 | Bolton | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 50:34 | 16 | 61 |
| 4 | Bradford City | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 43:38 | 5 | 58 |
| 5 | Stockport County | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 47:43 | 4 | 56 |
| 6 | Huddersfield | 35 | 15 | 7 | 13 | 55:46 | 9 | 52 |
| 7 | Reading | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 50:44 | 6 | 51 |
| 8 | Stevenage | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 37:35 | 2 | 51 |
| 9 | Wycombe | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 49:36 | 13 | 50 |
| 10 | Luton | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 43:41 | 2 | 47 |
| 11 | Peterborough | 35 | 14 | 4 | 17 | 50:49 | 1 | 46 |
| 12 | Plymouth | 34 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 49:50 | -1 | 46 |
| 13 | Barnsley | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 53:53 | 0 | 44 |
| 14 | AFC Wimbledon | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 41:48 | -7 | 43 |
| 15 | Exeter | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 38:39 | -1 | 41 |
| 16 | Mansfield | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39:37 | 2 | 40 |
| 17 | Burton | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38:49 | -11 | 39 |
| 18 | Doncaster | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 36:55 | -19 | 39 |
| 19 | Wigan | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 37 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 40:54 | -14 | 37 |
| 21 | Leyton Orient | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 44:56 | -12 | 36 |
| 22 | Northampton | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 31:47 | -16 | 35 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 33:47 | -14 | 34 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 26:44 | -18 | 27 |
Promotion ~ Championship
Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ League Two
