Result
3:2
17/03/2026 at 15:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League One - Round 38
- Referee: Chilowicz A. (Usa)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.73 | 2.03 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (300/380) | 81% (365/450) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.73 | 2.03 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.10 | 1.49 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (300/380) | 81% (365/450) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (23/57) | 45% (39/86) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (83/135) | 73% (115/158) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (3/18) | 17% (4/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.67 | 1.89 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (5/9) | 60% (12/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 32 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.49 | 3.10 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.51 | 0.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 13', 1 - 0, Palmer K. ⚽, Walsh L. (A),
- 25', 1 - 1, Cole R. ⚽,
- 29', 2 - 1, Clark J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 45+4', Cole R. 🟨,
- 45+5', 3 - 1, Odoffin H. ⚽, Saville G. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 49', 3 - 2, Niskanen I. ⚽, Tuterov T. (A),
- 55', Magennis J. ↓, Wareham J. ↑,
- 55', Yfeko J. ↓, Andrew D. ↑,
- 65', Cole R. ↓, Higgins A. ↑,
- 72', Lawrence E. 🟨,
- 75', Cole D. ↓, Adebayo E. ↑,
- 75', Palmer K. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
- 80', Brierley E. ↓, McDonald K. ↑,
- 80', Tuterov T. ↓, Cox S. ↑,
- 82', McMillan J. 🟨,
- 90+2', Clark J. ↓, van den Berg D. ↑,
- 90+5', Saville G. ↓, Sandal S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Luton Town
56.8% | Draw
23.6% | Exeter City
19.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
Luton Town - Exeter City Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.66 ↓
(1.75) |
3.96 ↑
(3.5) |
4.79 ↑
(4.25) |
6.4%
(9.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Luton Town - Exeter City?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Exeter will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 25.1% – 83.9%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.75 - Luton (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 and 18).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 3.
- Recent performances by Luton have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Exeter has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Recently, Exeter has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Luton is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Luton: Baptiste S.
(Knee Injury)
Mengi T.
(Injury)
Sandal S.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Exeter: Borges P.
(Knee Injury)
Yfeko J.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Luton: Al Hamadi A.
(Inactive)
Andersen M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Exeter: Doyle-Hayes J.
(Inactive)
Fitzwater J.
(Inactive)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Luton won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 23:12. (average 1.9:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:5. (average 2.4:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Exeter City?
Luton Town has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Exeter City won against Luton Town?
Exeter City has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Luton Town - Exeter City were as follows:
01.01.2026
Exeter City
-
Luton Town
1:0
02.12.2025
Luton Town
-
Exeter City
4:0
26.09.2023
Exeter City
-
Luton Town
1:0
Latest results of Luton Town
Latest results of Exeter City
English League One Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lincoln ✔ | 42 | 28 | 9 | 5 | 79:36 | 43 | 93 |
| 2 | Cardiff | 41 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 76:42 | 34 | 81 |
| 3 | Bradford City | 42 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 52:46 | 6 | 71 |
| 4 | Bolton | 42 | 18 | 16 | 8 | 59:44 | 15 | 70 |
| 5 | Stockport County | 40 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 59:50 | 9 | 67 |
| 6 | Stevenage | 41 | 19 | 10 | 12 | 43:38 | 5 | 67 |
| 7 | Plymouth | 42 | 19 | 6 | 17 | 66:58 | 8 | 63 |
| 8 | Huddersfield | 42 | 17 | 11 | 14 | 65:56 | 9 | 62 |
| 9 | Reading | 43 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 62:55 | 7 | 62 |
| 10 | Luton | 41 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 57:50 | 7 | 61 |
| 11 | Wycombe | 43 | 16 | 12 | 15 | 63:51 | 12 | 60 |
| 12 | Barnsley | 40 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 63:65 | -2 | 54 |
| 13 | Mansfield | 40 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 50:43 | 7 | 53 |
| 14 | Doncaster | 42 | 15 | 8 | 19 | 43:64 | -21 | 53 |
| 15 | Wigan | 42 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 46:56 | -10 | 52 |
| 16 | Peterborough | 41 | 15 | 6 | 20 | 60:58 | 2 | 51 |
| 17 | Burton | 43 | 13 | 12 | 18 | 46:56 | -10 | 51 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 43 | 14 | 9 | 20 | 51:65 | -14 | 51 |
| 19 | Leyton Orient | 42 | 14 | 8 | 20 | 57:66 | -9 | 50 |
| 20 | AFC Wimbledon | 42 | 14 | 8 | 20 | 49:63 | -14 | 50 |
| 21 | Exeter | 43 | 12 | 11 | 20 | 47:55 | -8 | 47 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 41 | 9 | 10 | 22 | 36:62 | -26 | 37 |
| 23 | Northampton | 41 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 34:60 | -26 | 35 |
| 24 | Port Vale | 39 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 30:54 | -24 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Championship
Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ League Two
Clinched Spots for Teams
Lincoln is Qualified for Championship
