Result
2:3 penalties
29/04/2026 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 13
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | AbemaTV, DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.03 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (444/532) | 75% (264/350) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.03 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.01 | 1.76 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (444/532) | 75% (264/350) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (29/61) | 44% (25/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (72/103) | 58% (57/99) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (3/18) | 40% (8/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 1.09 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (18/21) | 80% (16/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.76 | 2.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.24 | 1.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 17', 0 - 1, Shimoda H. ⚽, Tokumura F. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 48', 0 - 2, Dresevic I. ⚽, Masuyama A. (A),
- 63', Yamashita Y. ↓, Semba T. ↑,
- 67', 1 - 2, Mochizuki H. (Own goal),
- 68', Matheus Leiria ↓, Ando K. ↑,
- 68', Nemoto R. ↓, Tada K. ↑,
- 76', Sento K. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
- 76', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Hayashi K. ↑,
- 77', Fujio S. ↓, Yengi T. ↑,
- 78', Omori S. ↓, Patryck ↑,
- 79', Iida T. ↓, Yamashita S. ↑,
- 87', Masuyama A. ↓, Shoji G. ↑,
- 88', Kuwayama K. 🟨,
- 90', 2 - 2, Ando K. ⚽, Semba T. (A),
- 90+2', Tokumura F. ↓, Erik ↑,
- Penalties (3 - 4)
- 1, Osaki K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Shimoda H. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Tada K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Dresevic I. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Omori S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Erik (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Itakura K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Tani K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Patryck (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Mito HollyHock
25.6% | Draw
29.2% | Machida Zelvia
45.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
The chances for Mito HollyHock have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+1.4%)
Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.67 ↓
(3.69) |
3.21 ↓
(3.3) |
2.08 ↑
(2.06) |
6.4%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mito HollyHock: 4% – 71%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 1.
- Mito HollyHock has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Machida Zelvia is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Mito HollyHock may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Machida Zelvia might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Mito HollyHock: Danilo Cardoso
(Yellow Cards)
Kato C.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:23. (average 1.5:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mito HollyHock won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:7. (average 1.8:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Mito HollyHock won against Machida Zelvia?
Mito HollyHock has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Mito HollyHock?
Machida Zelvia has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia were as follows:
14.02.2026
Machida Zelvia
-
Mito HollyHock
3:2
24.06.2023
Mito HollyHock
-
Machida Zelvia
1:1
12.03.2023
Machida Zelvia
-
Mito HollyHock
3:0
Latest results of Mito HollyHock
Latest results of Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23:10 | 34 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 29:13 | 32 |
| 3 | Machida | 13 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:20 | 25 |
| 4 | Verdy | 13 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20:16 | 24 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 20:25 | 20 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 20:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Mito | 14 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21:28 | 18 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21:26 | 16 |
| 9 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16:21 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiba | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13:26 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 23:18 | 26 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 15 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 28:21 | 25 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 25:20 | 25 |
| 4 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17:14 | 21 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 21:19 | 20 |
| 6 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 7 | Okayama | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Kyoto | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20:18 | 19 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 15 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18:27 | 18 |
| 10 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 14:22 | 16 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
