Result
1:1
18/01/2026 at 12:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 20
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Spain | Footballclub, LaLiga+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 13', 0 - 1, Garcia A. ⚽,
- 21', 🟨,
- 37', 1 - 1, Yanez D. ⚽,
- 41', Garcia A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Pareja L. ↓, Dominguez J. ↑,
- 66', Dibrani B. ↓, Herranz Corral V. ↑,
- 76', Aguado D. 🟨,
- 82', Palacios C. ↓, Gines A. ↑,
- 82', Zuniga L. ↓, Mesonero D. ↑,
- 82', Chiqui ↓, Capitas M. ↑,
- 90', Solar M. ↓, Pipe ↑,
- 90+1', Angel M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Real Madrid Castilla
51% | Draw
27.3% | Mérida AD
21.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.79 ↓
(1.81) |
3.33 ↓
(3.45) |
4.23 ↓
(4.26) |
9.5%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD?
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 2.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Mérida AD may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is a strong favorite.
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.1:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid Castilla won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Real Madrid Castilla won against Mérida AD?
Real Madrid Castilla has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mérida AD won against Real Madrid Castilla?
Mérida AD has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD were as follows:
09.11.2025
Mérida AD
-
Real Madrid Castilla
3:0
10.05.2025
Mérida AD
-
Real Madrid Castilla
0:0
30.11.2024
Real Madrid Castilla
-
Mérida AD
6:0
11.02.2024
Real Madrid Castilla
-
Mérida AD
0:1
23.09.2023
Mérida AD
-
Real Madrid Castilla
0:1
Latest results of Real Madrid Castilla
Latest results of Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Tenerife | 35 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 57:20 | 37 | 73 |
| 2 | Celta Vigo B | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 56:44 | 12 | 61 |
| 3 | Zamora | 35 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 49:38 | 11 | 58 |
| 4 | Real Madrid B | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 55:43 | 12 | 56 |
| 5 | Pontevedra | 35 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 43:26 | 17 | 54 |
| 6 | Ponferradina | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 38:32 | 6 | 51 |
| 7 | Barakaldo | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 44:36 | 8 | 51 |
| 8 | Unionistas | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 47:45 | 2 | 49 |
| 9 | AD Merida | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44:47 | -3 | 48 |
| 10 | Racing Club Ferrol | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 38:43 | -5 | 47 |
| 11 | Arenas Getxo | 35 | 14 | 5 | 16 | 41:51 | -10 | 47 |
| 12 | Lugo | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 32:37 | -5 | 46 |
| 13 | Ath Bilbao B | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 34:38 | -4 | 45 |
| 14 | Real Aviles | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 51:58 | -7 | 43 |
| 15 | CF Talavera | 35 | 10 | 9 | 16 | 35:44 | -9 | 39 |
| 16 | Ourense CF | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38:40 | -2 | 38 |
| 17 | Guadalajara | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 39:54 | -15 | 37 |
| 18 | Osasuna B | 35 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 25:39 | -14 | 36 |
| 19 | Cacereno | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 31:45 | -14 | 35 |
| 20 | Arenteiro | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 29:46 | -17 | 27 |
Promotion ~ LaLiga2
Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1
Relegation
