Result
1:2
01/02/2026 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 22
- Referee: Massimi L. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio, LAB Channel |
 Slovenia | Sport TV3 |
 Usa | Fox Soccer Plus, Fox |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.35 | 1.54 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (249/324) | 87% (462/534) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.35 | 1.54 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.64 | 1.90 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (249/324) | 87% (462/534) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (19/49) | 56% (22/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (53/78) | 80% (146/183) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (5/14) | 27% (6/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 1.35 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 11 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (12/19) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.90 | 0.64 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.10 | -0.36 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 15', Brorsson A. 🟨,
- 17', 1 - 0, Bortolussi M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 24', Perrotta M. 🟨,
- 39', Faedo C. 🟨,
- 45', 1 - 1, Colpani A. ⚽, Birindelli S. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Perrotta M. ↓, Villa L. ↑,
- 63', Papu Gomez ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
- 65', Mota D. ↓, Cutrone P. ↑,
- 65', Obiang P. ↓, Caso G. ↑,
- 67', Di Maggio L. ↓, Varas K. ↑,
- 74', Sgarbi F. 🟨,
- 84', Hernani ↓, Ciurria P. ↑,
- 84', Brorsson A. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
- 87', 1 - 2, Alvarez A. ⚽, Caso G. (A),
- 90', Colpani A. ↓, Lucchesi L. ↑,
- 90', Harder J. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 90', Barreca A. ↓, Di Mariano F. ↑,
Chances of winning
Padova
18.8% | Draw
27.1% | Monza
54% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Padova - Monza Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5 ↑
(4.35) |
3.43
(3.43) |
1.74 ↓
(1.82) |
6.5%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Padova - Monza?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Monza will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Monza: 47.7% – 95.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Monza (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
- Padova is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Monza is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Padova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Monza is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Injury)
Caprari G.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Monza: Antov V.
(Knee Injury)
Colombo L.
(Yellow Cards)
Forson O.
(Knee Injury)
Galazzi N.
(Inactive)
Mota D.
(Inactive)
Petagna A.
(Inactive)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Padova won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).
- Including home match between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Monza?
Padova has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Monza won against Padova?
Monza has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Padova - Monza were as follows:
27.09.2025
Monza
-
Padova
0:1
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 58:25 | 33 | 60 |
| 2 | Monza | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 44:21 | 23 | 60 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 27 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 50:26 | 24 | 54 |
| 4 | Palermo | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 46:21 | 25 | 51 |
| 5 | Catanzaro | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 39:29 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Modena | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 37:24 | 13 | 43 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 31:31 | 0 | 39 |
| 8 | Cesena | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 36:41 | -5 | 38 |
| 9 | Sudtirol | 28 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 31:28 | 3 | 37 |
| 10 | Padova | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 30:35 | -5 | 34 |
| 11 | Empoli | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 33:37 | -4 | 31 |
| 12 | Carrarese | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 32:37 | -5 | 31 |
| 13 | Avellino | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 30:46 | -16 | 30 |
| 14 | Sampdoria | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 28:36 | -8 | 29 |
| 15 | Reggiana | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 29:40 | -11 | 29 |
| 16 | Entella | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 26:40 | -14 | 28 |
| 17 | Mantova | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 27:42 | -15 | 27 |
| 18 | Spezia | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 25:37 | -12 | 26 |
| 19 | Bari | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 23:39 | -16 | 25 |
| 20 | Pescara | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 32:52 | -20 | 21 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
