Result
1:0
24/04/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 36
- Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 United-kingdom | DCTV |
 Usa | DCTV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 0.92 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (270/344) | 86% (425/493) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 0.92 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 0.89 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (270/344) | 86% (425/493) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 28% (13/46) | 53% (23/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (87/119) | 78% (126/161) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (4/17) | 31% (9/29) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.99 | 0.89 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 47% (8/17) | 76% (13/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.08 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.89 | 0.08 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 27', 1 - 0, Birindelli S. ⚽,
- 45+2', Tonoli D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Tonoli D. ↓, Nieling B. ↑,
- 56', Colpani A. ↓, Hernani ↑,
- 56', Petagna A. ↓, Caso G. ↑,
- 57', Wiafe S. ↓, Pyyhtia N. ↑,
- 66', Ambrosino G. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,
- 66', Beyuku G. ↓, Zampano F. ↑,
- 70', Cutrone P. ↓, Mota D. ↑,
- 78', Zanimacchia L. ↓, Cotali M. ↑,
- 85', Nieling B. 🟨,
- 90', Bakoune A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Monza
61.1% | Draw
22.8% | Modena
16.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Monza's performance.Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Modena might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-8.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Monza that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Modena than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Modena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Monza - Modena Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.54 ↓
(1.81) |
4.13 ↑
(3.5) |
5.83 ↑
(4.27) |
6.5%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Monza - Modena?
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Monza (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Monza will win
(22 of 23 users predict this - 95.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.31% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- Monza is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Modena has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Modena may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Monza is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Monza: Forson O.
(Inactive)
Lucchesi L.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Modena: Chichizola L.
(Injury)
Defrel G.
(Inactive)
Gliozzi E.
(Injury)
Sersanti A.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Modena: Beyuku G.
(Injury)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Monza won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Monza won against Modena?
Monza has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Modena won against Monza?
Modena has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Monza - Modena were as follows:
26.12.2025
Modena
-
Monza
1:2
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia ✔ | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 75:31 | 44 | 79 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 37 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 71:34 | 37 | 78 |
| 3 | Monza | 37 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 59:30 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 37 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 61:31 | 30 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 37 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 60:48 | 12 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 49:35 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia ✔ | 37 | 11 | 17 | 9 | 43:44 | -1 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:55 | -13 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Mantova | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 45:52 | -7 | 46 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 44 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 35:47 | -12 | 44 |
| 13 | Padova | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35:46 | -11 | 43 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 45:52 | -7 | 40 |
| 15 | Sudtirol | 37 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 37:47 | -10 | 40 |
| 16 | Entella | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 39 |
| 17 | Bari | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 35:58 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Pescara | 37 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 50:65 | -15 | 34 |
| 19 | Spezia | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 42:58 | -16 | 34 |
| 20 | Reggiana | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 35:56 | -21 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Venezia is Qualified for Serie A
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Juve Stabia is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
