Result
3:3
11/01/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 16
- Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 7 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 South-america | Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.98 | 2.47 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (276/345) | 81% (319/394) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.98 | 2.47 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.48 | 1.86 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (276/345) | 81% (319/394) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (20/54) | 30% (13/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (70/95) | 66% (79/119) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (3/13) | 34% (12/35) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 1.76 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 71% (12/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 39 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.86 | 2.48 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.14 | -0.52 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 4', 0 - 1, Vinicius Lopes ⚽,
- 6', Leo Santos 🟨,
- 15', 0 - 2, Paulo Victor ⚽,
- 21', 1 - 2, Ramirez J. ⚽, Paulinho Boia (A),
- 24', Lima S. 🟨,
- 30', Pablo Ruan 🟨,
- 38', 2 - 2, Ramirez J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Pablo Ruan ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
- 46', Aurelio J. ↓, Deivison ↑,
- 50', 3 - 2, Ramirez J. ⚽, Liziero (A),
- 52', Tavares J. 🟨,
- 65', Silva H. ↓, Adriano Firmino ↑,
- 65', Tavares J. ↓, Brenner ↑,
- 71', Gustavo Klismahn 🟨,
- 72', Matheus Dias 🟨,
- 76', Serginho ↓, Ferreira P. ↑,
- 76', Gustavo Klismahn ↓, Elias Manoel ↑,
- 76', Paulinho Boia ↓, Witi ↑,
- 76', Baeza M. ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
- 81', Kaique Pereira 🟨,
- 83', Paulo Victor ↓, Welinton Torrao ↑,
- 90', Liziero ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
- 90+5', 3 - 3, Elias Manoel ⚽, Gabriel Batista (A),
- 90+6', Rocha L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional
33.7% | Draw
31.9% | Santa Clara
34.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)Santa Clara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-4.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Clara than the current prediction. (+5.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Clara could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Nacional - Santa Clara Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.79 ↓
(3.19) |
2.95 ↓
(3.01) |
2.74 ↑
(2.42) |
6.3%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Nacional - Santa Clara?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Santa Clara will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 26.7% – 80.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Santa Clara (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Nacional (1.88) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Santa Clara (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 13)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2.
- Neither of the teams is performing well right now.
- Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Santa Clara has had a series of home games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
- There will not play in Santa Clara: Pacheco P.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Daniel Junior
(Injury)
Leo Santos
(Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:21. (average 1:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.4:2).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Santa Clara?
Nacional has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Santa Clara won against Nacional?
Santa Clara has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Santa Clara were as follows:
30.03.2025
Santa Clara
-
Nacional
1:0
04.11.2024
Nacional
-
Santa Clara
2:0
17.03.2024
Santa Clara
-
Nacional
0:1
11.01.2024
Santa Clara
-
Nacional
2:1
04.11.2023
Nacional
-
Santa Clara
1:1
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Santa Clara
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
