Result
3:1
15/12/2025 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 14
- Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.34 | 3.27 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 21 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (212/297) | 79% (283/357) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.34 | 3.27 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.03 | 2.05 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 21 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 14 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 29 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (212/297) | 79% (283/357) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (19/54) | 35% (19/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 52% (45/86) | 69% (98/142) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 44% (7/16) | 20% (7/35) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 1.76 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (5/7) | 57% (4/7) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 33 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 40 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.05 | 2.03 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.05 | -0.97 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 20', Marques C. 🟨,
- 22', Deivison 🟥,
- 24', Baeza M. ↓, Aurelio J. ↑,
- 34', Margarido T. 🟥,
- 35', Witi 🟨,
- 37', Pedro Maranhao (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 46', Marques C. ↓, Ceitil A. ↑,
- 49', 0 - 1, Maviram E. ⚽, Pedro Maranhao (A),
- 54', Leo Santos 🟨,
- 54', Siebatcheu J. 🟨,
- 60', Maviram E. 🟨,
- 61', Matheus Dias ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
- 61', Witi ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
- 62', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
- 66', Felix H. 🟨,
- 68', 1 - 1, Ze Vitor ⚽,
- 71', Maviram E. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
- 71', Rodriguez J. ↓, Rodrigues A. ↑,
- 79', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Yarlen ↑,
- 82', Felix H. ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
- 90', Rodrigues A. 🟨,
- 90', Aurelio J. 🟨,
- 90+2', Liziero ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
- 90+8', Siebatcheu J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+9', 2 - 1, Ramirez J. ⚽,
- 90+11', Paulinho Boia 🟨,
- 90+11', Sousa A. 🟨,
- 90+13', Medina B. 🟥,
- 90+15', 3 - 1, Ramirez J. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Nacional
40.2% | Draw
29.9% | Tondela
29.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
Nacional - Tondela Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.35 ↑
(2.21) |
3.16 ↓
(3.18) |
3.17 ↓
(3.43) |
5.7%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Nacional - Tondela?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 12 - 54.5%). Tondela will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 33.7% – 75.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 5 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.25 - Tondela (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Tondela (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 2.
- Nacional has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Tondela is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Nacional could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
- There will not play in Tondela: Bebeto
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Aurelio J.
(Injury)
Pablo Ruan
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Tondela: Moudjatovic M.
(Injury)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 1.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 1.9:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Tondela?
Nacional has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Nacional?
Tondela has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Tondela were as follows:
12.05.2024
Tondela
-
Nacional
2:3
06.01.2024
Nacional
-
Tondela
1:1
29.01.2023
Tondela
-
Nacional
1:0
09.11.2022
Nacional
-
Tondela
1:0
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Tondela
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
