Result
1:3
11/07/2025 at 21:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Clausura - Round 1
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 1.30 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 39% | 61% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (285/330) | 88% (458/522) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.12 | 1.30 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 0.80 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (285/330) | 88% (458/522) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 63% (24/38) | 69% (40/58) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (66/102) | 66% (63/95) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 0% (0/14) | 38% (6/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.28 | 0.77 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (6/9) | 94% (15/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 27 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.80 | 0.75 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.08 | -0.25 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 10', Navarro E. 🟨,
- 13', 0 - 1, Castro J. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Diaz J. ↓, Quinones D. ↑,
- 46', Navarro E. ↓, Valencia Y. ↑,
- 48', 0 - 2, Morelos A. ⚽, Uribe M. (A),
- 56', Moreno D. 🟨,
- 60', 1 - 2, Moreno D. (Pen),
- 66', Cardona J. 🟨,
- 70', 1 - 3, Rojas I. (Own goal),
- 70', Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
- 76', Sarmiento A. ↓, Arce B. ↑,
- 77', Tesillo W. 🟨,
- 77', Patino J. 🟨,
- 85', Uribe M. 🟨,
- 85', Sanchez L. ↓, Rojas T. ↑,
- 86', Rojas I. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
- 87', Uribe M. ↓, Rivero E. ↑,
- 87', Castro J. ↓, Uribe C. ↑,
- 90+2', Valencia Y. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Once Caldas
22.5% | Draw
27.5% | Atlético Nacional
49.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+2.4%)
Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.12 ↑
(4) |
3.4 ↓
(3.5) |
1.87 ↑
(1.85) |
7.4%
(7.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional?
Users Predictions:
Atlético Nacional will win
(5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 4 and 3)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 2.
- Recent form of Once Caldas has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Atlético Nacional has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Atlético Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Once Caldas has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Atlético Nacional is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:23. (average 0.8:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Once Caldas won against Atlético Nacional?
Once Caldas has won 3 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Nacional won against Once Caldas?
Atlético Nacional has won 3 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional were as follows:
19.06.2025
Once Caldas
-
Atlético Nacional
1:2
01.06.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Once Caldas
0:0
25.01.2025
Atlético Nacional
-
Once Caldas
4:0
27.07.2024
Once Caldas
-
Atlético Nacional
2:0
07.07.2024
Once Caldas
-
Atlético Nacional
1:0
Latest results of Once Caldas
Latest results of Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera A Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Junior | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Fortaleza | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Santa Fe | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Chico | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Pereira | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Alianza | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Dep. Pasto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Llaneros | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Aguilas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 2 |
| 12 | Bucaramanga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | America De Cali | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | U. Magdalena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Envigado | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Ind. Medellin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | La Equidad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Dep. Cali | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Millonarios | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Once Caldas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )
