Result
0:2
13/12/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 16
- Referee: Perri M. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 3.28 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 28 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (338/416) | 79% (228/289) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 3.28 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 2.61 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 28 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 21 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 0 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 36 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 24 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (338/416) | 79% (228/289) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (15/38) | 53% (27/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (75/119) | 70% (85/122) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (7/24) | 50% (12/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 1.68 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 24 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (6/12) | 60% (9/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.61 | 0.61 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.61 | 0.61 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 5', 0 - 1, Nieling B. ⚽,
- 25', Fellipe Jack 🟨,
- 37', Pyyhtia N. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 60', Massolin Y. 🟨,
- 61', Nagy A. ↓, Candelari P. ↑,
- 68', Pyyhtia N. ↓, Sersanti A. ↑,
- 68', Fellipe Jack 🟨,
- 72', Bandinelli F. 🟨,
- 73', Kouda R. ↓, Hristov P. ↑,
- 73', Vlahovic V. ↓, Di Serio G. ↑,
- 76', Massolin Y. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
- 86', Beruatto P. ↓, Esposito Sa. ↑,
- 86', Artistico G. ↓, Soleri E. ↑,
- 88', Santoro S. ↓, Magnino L. ↑,
- 88', Mendes P. ↓, Gliozzi E. ↑,
- 90', 0 - 2, Gliozzi E. ⚽, Defrel G. (A),
- 90+2', Tonoli D. 🟨,
- 90+5', Zampano F. 🟨,
- 90+8', Esposito Sa. 🟨,
- 90+8', Magnino L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Spezia
26.9% | Draw
30.6% | Modena
42.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Spezia's form might have worsened.Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Modena's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+4.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-4.5%)
Spezia - Modena Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.49 ↑
(2.88) |
3.05 ↑
(3) |
2.22 ↓
(2.48) |
6.6%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Spezia - Modena?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Modena will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Modena: 42% – 87.4%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Spezia (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Modena will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Spezia (votes: 1 - 20%). Modena (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Spezia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Modena might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Spezia: Cassata F.
(Yellow Cards)
Di Serio G.
(Injury)
Esposito Sa.
(Hamstring Injury)
Sarr M.
(Ankle Injury)
Zurkowski S.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Modena: Cotali M.
(Inactive)
Ponsi F.
(Inactive)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 0.9:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 1.6:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Modena?
Spezia has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Modena won against Spezia?
Modena has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Spezia - Modena were as follows:
15.02.2025
Modena
-
Spezia
1:1
02.11.2024
Spezia
-
Modena
1:0
25.02.2024
Modena
-
Spezia
0:0
26.12.2023
Spezia
-
Modena
1:1
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 53:24 | 29 | 56 |
| 2 | Monza | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 39:20 | 19 | 54 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 48:24 | 24 | 53 |
| 4 | Palermo | 26 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 45:19 | 26 | 51 |
| 5 | Catanzaro | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 37:27 | 10 | 44 |
| 6 | Modena | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 35:20 | 15 | 43 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 26 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 31:31 | 0 | 38 |
| 8 | Cesena | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 34:37 | -3 | 37 |
| 9 | Sudtirol | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 26:27 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Empoli | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 32:36 | -4 | 30 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31:36 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | Padova | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26:32 | -6 | 30 |
| 13 | Sampdoria | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 28:34 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | Avellino | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 30:42 | -12 | 29 |
| 15 | Reggiana | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 28:36 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Mantova | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26:41 | -15 | 26 |
| 17 | Spezia | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 23:34 | -11 | 25 |
| 18 | Entella | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 24:37 | -13 | 25 |
| 19 | Bari | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 21:39 | -18 | 22 |
| 20 | Pescara | 26 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 30:51 | -21 | 18 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
