Result
1:4
16/09/2025 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Meistriliiga - Round 28
- Referee: Koppel K. (Est)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Estonia | Soccernet TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 3)
- 3', 0 - 1, Pajo T. ⚽, Paalberg M. (A),
- 12', 1 - 1, Bah M. ⚽, Uggeri G. (A),
- 18', 1 - 2, Paalberg M. ⚽, Vallik V. (A),
- 32', Villota M. ↓, Aer S. ↑,
- 35', Epton D. 🟥,
- 36', Tanimowo O. ↓, Karis M. ↑,
- 38', 1 - 3, Paalberg M. ⚽, Pajo T. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 48', Bah M. 🟨,
- 50', Miil M. 🟨,
- 57', 1 - 4, Paalberg M. ⚽, Pajo T. (A),
- 64', Jarvelaid H. ↓, Vister M. ↑,
- 64', Koskor T. ↓, Ignatius C. ↑,
- 69', Valja H. 🟨,
- 71', Vallik V. ↓, Veensalu E. ↑,
- 71', Pajo T. ↓, Lukas R. ↑,
- 72', Vister M. 🟨,
- 74', Miil M. ↓, Lang T. ↑,
- 74', Aer S. 🟨,
- 74', Bah M. ↓, Kallas R. ↑,
- 85', Paalberg M. ↓, Kauber K. ↑,
- 85', Kapper S. ↓, Kolvart S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Tammeka
29.6% | Draw
24.8% | Pärnu Vaprus
45.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tammeka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tammeka's performance.Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pärnu Vaprus might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tammeka than the current prediction. (-8.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tammeka that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (+12.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pärnu Vaprus could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Tammeka - Pärnu Vaprus Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.71 ↓
(4.19) |
3.25 ↓
(4.2) |
1.76 ↑
(1.66) |
24.4%
(7.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Tammeka - Pärnu Vaprus?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Tammeka will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Pärnu Vaprus will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tammeka: 51.5% – 92.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Tammeka will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tammeka won 1.
- Tammeka is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Pärnu Vaprus is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- In this match, Pärnu Vaprus is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tammeka won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:35. (average 1.4:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tammeka won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 1.6:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Tammeka won against Pärnu Vaprus?
Tammeka has won 4 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Pärnu Vaprus won against Tammeka?
Pärnu Vaprus has won 7 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tammeka - Pärnu Vaprus were as follows:
15.08.2025
Pärnu Vaprus
-
Tammeka
8:1
17.05.2025
Pärnu Vaprus
-
Tammeka
2:1
29.03.2025
Tammeka
-
Pärnu Vaprus
0:5
16.02.2025
Tammeka
-
Pärnu Vaprus
6:1
18.09.2024
Pärnu Vaprus
-
Tammeka
2:2
Latest results of Tammeka
Latest results of Pärnu Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flora | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 65:26 | 39 | 66 |
| 2 | Levadia | 29 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 70:30 | 40 | 63 |
| 3 | Paide | 29 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 47:26 | 21 | 55 |
| 4 | Kalju | 29 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 56:33 | 23 | 55 |
| 5 | Narva | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 47:36 | 11 | 47 |
| 6 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 50:38 | 12 | 45 |
| 7 | Harju JK Laagri | 29 | 8 | 4 | 17 | 37:58 | -21 | 28 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 30 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 29:58 | -29 | 24 |
| 9 | Tammeka | 30 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 37:69 | -32 | 23 |
| 10 | Tallinna Kalev | 29 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 25:89 | -64 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Esiliiga
