Result
1:2
02/05/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 32
- Referee: Torres M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.81 | 1.54 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 68% | 32% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (360/434) | 71% (143/202) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.81 | 1.54 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.18 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 15 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 45 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (360/434) | 71% (143/202) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (19/48) | 30% (13/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (96/135) | 59% (41/69) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 35% (14/40) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.61 | 0.91 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (15/22) | 42% (8/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 42 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.18 | 0.89 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.82 | -0.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 4', 1 - 0, Soares F. ⚽,
- 22', 1 - 1, Pedro Lima ⚽, Akinsola T. (A),
- 41', Gabriel Veron 🟨,
- 45', Paulo Vitor 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Gabriel Veron ↓, Liziero ↑,
- 55', Labidi C. 🟨,
- 58', Ze Vitor 🟨,
- 63', 1 - 2, Neiva G. ⚽, Duarte D. (A),
- 64', Galletto T. ↓, Ponck ↑,
- 71', Daniel Junior ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 71', Labidi C. ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
- 72', Neiva G. ↓, Tomane ↑,
- 88', Jose Gomes ↓, Witi ↑,
- 88', Nunez A. ↓, Aurelio J. ↑,
- 88', Akinsola T. ↓, Molina G. ↑,
- 89', Adriel 🟨,
- 90+3', Ze Vitor 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional
63.5% | Draw
21.1% | AVS
15.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)AVS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-2.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for AVS than the current prediction. (+1.4%)
Nacional - AVS Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.5 ↓
(1.61) |
4.51 ↑
(4.31) |
6.06 ↑
(5.67) |
5.6%
(3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Nacional - AVS?
Users Predictions:
Nacional will win
(10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
Preview Facts
- This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- AVS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
- In recent matches, Nacional has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- AVS has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- AVS may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Nacional is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Broken calfbone)
- There will not play in AVS: Baroan A.
(Injury)
Mendonca G.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Baeza M.
(Injury)
Lucas Franca
(Thigh Injury)
- There are questionable in AVS: Duarte D.
(Injury)
Kiki
(Inactive)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against AVS?
Nacional has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has AVS won against Nacional?
AVS has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - AVS were as follows:
21.12.2025
AVS
-
Nacional
2:2
19.01.2025
Nacional
-
AVS
3:1
10.08.2024
AVS
-
Nacional
1:1
06.04.2024
Nacional
-
AVS
2:1
19.11.2023
AVS
-
Nacional
0:1
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 49 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 34 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
