Result
1:0
27/12/2025 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 18
- Referee: Piccinini M. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 1.15 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (263/341) | 81% (397/491) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 1.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 1.20 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (263/341) | 81% (397/491) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (25/48) | 42% (18/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (80/118) | 75% (86/115) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 6% (1/18) | 15% (4/26) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.09 | 0.95 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 26 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (6/11) | 73% (11/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 46 |
| Clearances |
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| 30 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
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| 9 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.52 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.20 | -0.48 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 33', Le Douaron J. 🟨,
- 38', 1 - 0, Pohjanpalo J. ⚽, Palumbo A. (A),
- 42', Palumbo A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 60', Le Douaron J. ↓, Vasic A. ↑,
- 65', Gyasi E. ↓, Pierozzi N. ↑,
- 65', Palumbo A. ↓, Gomes C. ↑,
- 69', Bortolussi M. ↓, Seghetti A. ↑,
- 71', Harder J. 🟨,
- 73', Harder J. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
- 84', Varas K. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
- 84', Papu Gomez ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 85', Ceccaroni P. ↓, Giovane S. ↑,
- 85', Ranocchia F. ↓, Blin A. ↑,
- 86', Belli F. ↓, Baselli D. ↑,
- 90+3', Fusi P. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Palermo
60.1% | Draw
24% | Padova
15.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palermo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Palermo - Padova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.56 ↑
(1.51) |
3.89 ↓
(4.06) |
5.91 ↓
(6.13) |
6.9%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palermo - Padova?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Palermo will win (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Padova will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palermo: 62.2% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Palermo (votes: 1 - 50%). Padova (votes: 1 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Padova (4.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 1st Half - Palermo (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Palermo (votes: 2 - 50%). Padova (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 4.
- Palermo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Padova has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Padova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Palermo is the clear favorite.
- There will not play in Palermo: Bani M.
(Yellow Cards)
Diakite S.
(Red Card)
Pierozzi N.
(Injury)
Vasic A.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Injury)
Favale G.
(Inactive)
Lasagna K.
(Muscle Injury)
Pastina C.
(Inactive)
- We predict that Palermo will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 1.7:0.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palermo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1:0.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Palermo won against Padova?
Palermo has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Palermo?
Padova has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palermo - Padova were as follows:
Latest results of Palermo
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 54:25 | 29 | 57 |
| 2 | Monza | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 41:20 | 21 | 57 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 27 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 50:26 | 24 | 54 |
| 4 | Palermo | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 46:21 | 25 | 51 |
| 5 | Catanzaro | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 39:29 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Modena | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 36:22 | 14 | 43 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 27 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 31:31 | 0 | 39 |
| 8 | Cesena | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 35:38 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | Sudtirol | 27 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 27:28 | -1 | 34 |
| 10 | Padova | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 28:33 | -5 | 33 |
| 11 | Empoli | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 33:37 | -4 | 31 |
| 12 | Carrarese | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 32:37 | -5 | 31 |
| 13 | Avellino | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 30:42 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | Reggiana | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 29:36 | -7 | 29 |
| 15 | Sampdoria | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 28:36 | -8 | 29 |
| 16 | Mantova | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 27:42 | -15 | 27 |
| 17 | Spezia | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 23:35 | -12 | 25 |
| 18 | Entella | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 24:39 | -15 | 25 |
| 19 | Bari | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 23:39 | -16 | 25 |
| 20 | Pescara | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 32:52 | -20 | 21 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
