Result
1:0
19/12/2025 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 15
- Referee: Silva D. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | DAZN |
 Croatia | SportKlub 2 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 5 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 1 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.13 | 2.18 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 32% | 68% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (236/318) | 86% (583/674) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.13 | 2.18 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 35 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (236/318) | 86% (583/674) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (22/57) | 49% (23/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (69/98) | 81% (206/253) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (3/13) | 37% (7/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.85 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 40% (4/10) | 57% (8/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 40 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.50 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 41', Jandro 🟨,
- 43', 1 - 0, Lacximicant A. ⚽, Amaral P. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 61', Rodrigues D. ↓, Horta R. ↑,
- 61', Vitor Carvalho ↓, Dorgeles M. ↑,
- 62', Guitane R. ↓, Ferro ↑,
- 62', Victor P. 🟨,
- 71', Jandro ↓, Lominadze N. ↑,
- 71', Amaral P. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
- 73', Martinez G. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
- 73', Gorby ↓, Grillitsch F. ↑,
- 78', Sanchez R. 🟨,
- 78', Lacximicant A. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
- 78', Sanchez R. ↓, Tsoungui A. ↑,
- 82', Parente T. 🟨,
- 83', Moutinho J. ↓, Lelo L. ↑,
- 90+2', Grillitsch F. 🟨,
- 90+2', Garcia F. 🟨,
- 90+5', Tsoungui A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estoril Praia
19.4% | Draw
23.9% | Braga
56.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Braga's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+4.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Braga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Estoril Praia - Braga Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.88 ↑
(3.87) |
3.97 ↑
(3.39) |
1.68 ↓
(1.88) |
5.4%
(8.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Estoril Praia - Braga?
Users Predictions:
42 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 5 - 11.9%). Braga will win (votes: 31 - 73.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Braga: 60.5% – 87.1%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.75 - Braga (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Braga (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Estoril (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Braga will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 18 high ROI users predict this event. Estoril (votes: 1 - 5.6%). Braga (votes: 16 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 0.
- Recent form of Estoril has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Braga is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Braga has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Braga is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Estoril: Guitane R.
(International duty)
Xeka
(Injury)
- There will not play in Braga: Niakate S.
(International duty)
Noro J.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Vidigal S.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Estoril: Costa G.
(Injury)
Israelov O.
(Thigh Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 13:46. (average 0.7:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:19. (average 0.5:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Braga?
Estoril Praia has won 0 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Estoril Praia?
Braga has won 6 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estoril Praia - Braga were as follows:
19.04.2025
Estoril Praia
-
Braga
0:2
06.12.2024
Braga
-
Estoril Praia
2:2
13.04.2024
Estoril Praia
-
Braga
0:1
27.01.2024
Braga
-
Estoril Praia
2:1
03.12.2023
Braga
-
Estoril Praia
3:1
Latest results of Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
