Result
1:0
04/01/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 17
- Referee: Rosa D. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 2 |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 South-america | Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.00 | 1.13 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (315/385) | 87% (428/493) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.00 | 1.13 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.01 | 0.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 22 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (315/385) | 87% (428/493) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (19/47) | 50% (23/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (51/82) | 71% (100/141) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (5/16) | 21% (6/28) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.76 | 0.80 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 22 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (12/14) | 82% (14/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 39 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.34 | 2.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.34 | 1.01 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Nuozzi C. ↓, Figueiredo ↑,
- 57', Sandro Lima (Penalty Awarded),
- 59', Joujou A. ↓, Beney R. ↑,
- 64', Figueiredo 🟨,
- 70', Abdulai S. ↓, Gui D. ↑,
- 70', Sandro Lima ↓, Chiquinho ↑,
- 74', Rafa Soares 🟨,
- 74', Lincoln 🟨,
- 77', Rafa Soares ↓, Pedro Bondo ↑,
- 77', Zabiri Y. ↓, Elisor S. ↑,
- 79', Van de Looi T. 🟨,
- 80', Lincoln ↓, Leite T. ↑,
- 90+5', 🟨,
- 90+5', 1 - 0, Chiquinho (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Alverca
26.2% | Draw
29.4% | Famalicão
44.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)The chances for Famalicão have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
Alverca - Famalicão Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.61 ↑
(3.48) |
3.19 ↓
(3.32) |
2.12 ↓
(2.13) |
6.3%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Alverca - Famalicão?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Famalicão will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 24.7% – 66.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.5 - Alverca (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 25%). Famalicão (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 8).
- Alverca has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Famalicão has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Famalicão will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Alverca: Diarra S.
(Muscle Injury)
Mendes T.
(Muscle Injury)
Paulo A.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Famalicão: Gil Dias
(Yellow Cards)
Pastor G.
(Injury)
Rochinha
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Alverca: Chiquinho
(Injury)
Leo Chu
(Injury)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alverca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
- Including home match between the teams, Alverca won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Famalicão?
Alverca has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Famalicão won against Alverca?
Famalicão has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alverca - Famalicão were as follows:
Latest results of Alverca
Latest results of Famalicão
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
