Result
2:1
04/10/2025 at 00:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 33
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 1.13 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 35% | 65% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (243/325) | 86% (538/622) |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 1.13 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.03 | 0.93 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (243/325) | 86% (538/622) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (30/63) | 40% (19/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (82/126) | 84% (141/167) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 32% (6/19) | 0% (0/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.46 | 1.07 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 18 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 5 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (8/16) | 88% (14/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 30 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.93 | 2.03 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.07 | 0.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 37', 1 - 0, Nogami Y. ⚽, Fujii H. (A),
- 45', 2 - 0, Kimura Y. ⚽, Inagaki S. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Thiago Andrade ↓, Sakata R. ↑,
- 46', Shibayama M. ↓, Nakajima M. ↑,
- 54', Nakayama K. ↓, Tokumoto S. ↑,
- 68', Hatanaka S. ↓, Shindo R. ↑,
- 68', Ohata A. ↓, Takahashi N. ↑,
- 76', Kagawa S. ↓, Vitor Bueno ↑,
- 79', Nogami Y. ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
- 79', Kimura Y. ↓, Yamagishi Y. ↑,
- 85', 2 - 1, Vitor Bueno ⚽,
- 90+1', Morishima T. ↓, Kato G. ↑,
- 90+1', Mateus ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,
Chances of winning
Nagoya Grampus
34.2% | Draw
27.1% | Cerezo Osaka
38.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.77 ↓
(2.98) |
3.48 ↑
(3.19) |
2.44 ↓
(2.5) |
5.7%
(5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 16.1% – 74.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 15 and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Nagoya: Kawazura A.
(Ankle Injury)
Kikuchi T.
(Knee Injury)
Schmidt D.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y.
(Knee Injury)
Noborizato K.
(Knee Injury)
Uejo S.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Nagoya: Uchida T.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Cerezo Osaka: Fernandes L.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:23. (average 1.2:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 1.4:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Nagoya Grampus won against Cerezo Osaka?
Nagoya Grampus has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Nagoya Grampus?
Cerezo Osaka has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nagoya Grampus - Cerezo Osaka were as follows:
08.03.2025
Cerezo Osaka
-
Nagoya Grampus
1:1
30.06.2024
Cerezo Osaka
-
Nagoya Grampus
2:1
21.04.2024
Nagoya Grampus
-
Cerezo Osaka
2:1
26.08.2023
Cerezo Osaka
-
Nagoya Grampus
3:1
03.06.2023
Nagoya Grampus
-
Cerezo Osaka
3:1
Latest results of Nagoya Grampus
Latest results of Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 33 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 52:28 | 24 | 65 |
| 2 | Kyoto | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 57:35 | 22 | 60 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 33 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 48:33 | 15 | 60 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 43:28 | 15 | 60 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 39:23 | 16 | 58 |
| 6 | Machida | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 49:35 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 60:45 | 15 | 53 |
| 8 | Urawa Reds | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 40:32 | 8 | 52 |
| 9 | Gamba Osaka | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 46:47 | -1 | 50 |
| 10 | Cerezo Osaka | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 50:49 | 1 | 43 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 35:39 | -4 | 41 |
| 12 | Okayama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 29:35 | -6 | 41 |
| 13 | FC Tokyo | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 36:46 | -10 | 41 |
| 14 | Avispa Fukuoka | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 32:37 | -5 | 40 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 40:48 | -8 | 39 |
| 16 | Verdy | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 21:35 | -14 | 39 |
| 17 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 32:44 | -12 | 31 |
| 18 | Yokohama FC | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 21:37 | -16 | 31 |
| 19 | Shonan Bellmare | 33 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 28:57 | -29 | 25 |
| 20 | Albirex Niigata | 33 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 30:55 | -25 | 22 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
Relegation ~ J2 League
