Result
2:3
27/12/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 16
- Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 Israel | Sport 4 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.70 | 0.66 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 61% | 39% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (366/436) | 73% (217/296) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.70 | 0.66 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.07 | 1.10 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 38 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (366/436) | 73% (217/296) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (24/45) | 36% (18/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (119/164) | 53% (40/76) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 49% (19/39) | 13% (1/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.90 | 0.58 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (13/24) | 45% (5/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.10 | 2.07 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.90 | 1.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 8', 1 - 0, Luan Patrick (Own goal),
- 10', 1 - 1, Kikas ⚽, Otavio (A),
- 18', Encada J. 🟨,
- 24', 1 - 2, Jovane ⚽,
- 27', 2 - 2, Sorriso ⚽, Gil Dias (A),
- 36', Sa G. 🟨,
- 44', Otavio ↓, Montoia G. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 53', 2 - 3, Jovane ⚽,
- 68', De Amorim M. ↓, Elisor S. ↑,
- 69', Marcus A. ↓, Stoica I. ↑,
- 69', Sola A. ↓, Robinho ↑,
- 77', Kikas ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
- 77', Jovane ↓, Chernev A. ↑,
- 79', Zabiri Y. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
- 79', Rafa Soares ↓, Beney R. ↑,
- 82', Chernev A. 🟨,
- 82', Rodrigo Pinho 🟨,
- 84', Beney R. 🟨,
- 87', Gil Dias 🟨,
- 88', Stoica I. 🟨,
- 90', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
- 90', Pinheiro R. ↓, Garcia ↑,
- 90+1', Montoia G. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Famalicão
62.2% | Draw
23.1% | Estrela da Amadora
14.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Famalicão's performance.Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (+3.5%)
Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.52 ↓
(1.65) |
4.12 ↑
(3.55) |
6.27 ↑
(4.75) |
5.9%
(9.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -1 - Famalicão (1.81) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH +0.5 - Estrela (5.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Famalicão will win
(15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Famalicão will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Estrela (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 and 14).
- Famalicão is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Estrela has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Estrela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Famalicão is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in Famalicão: Abubakar U.
(Inactive)
Aranda O.
(Knee Injury)
Pastor G.
(Inactive)
Pedro Bondo
(International duty)
- There will not play in Estrela: Alisson Souza
(Inactive)
Ni
(Injury)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 0.8:0.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).
How many head-to-head matches has Famalicão won against Estrela da Amadora?
Famalicão has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Estrela da Amadora won against Famalicão?
Estrela da Amadora has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Famalicão - Estrela da Amadora were as follows:
25.01.2025
Famalicão
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:0
19.08.2024
Estrela da Amadora
-
Famalicão
0:3
16.03.2024
Famalicão
-
Estrela da Amadora
0:0
29.10.2023
Estrela da Amadora
-
Famalicão
1:0
Latest results of Famalicão
Latest results of Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
