Result
0:1
21/03/2026 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 8
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.05 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (316/412) | 68% (239/352) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.05 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.13 | 0.71 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (316/412) | 68% (239/352) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (16/48) | 29% (20/70) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (112/159) | 47% (49/104) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (9/29) | 62% (8/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 1.36 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 39 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 100% (9/9) | 50% (5/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.71 | 1.13 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.29 | 1.13 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Kawano K. ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
- 59', Motoyama H. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
- 59', Campbell N. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
- 68', Lucao ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
- 68', Esaka A. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
- 69', Yoneda S. ↓, Onaga H. ↑,
- 69', Dudu Giusti ↓, Arai I. ↑,
- 77', Miyamoto E. ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
- 77', Omori H. 🟨,
- 83', Diego Pituca ↓, Yamada R. ↑,
- 83', Matsumoto T. ↓, Hasegawa M. ↑,
- 90+3', 0 - 1, Yamasaki R. ⚽, Iwasaki Y. (A),
Chances of winning
Fagiano Okayama
43.9% | Draw
28.4% | V-Varen Nagasaki
27.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-1.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+2%)
Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.14 ↓
(2.22) |
3.31 ↓
(3.41) |
3.37 ↑
(3.18) |
6.7%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 2 - 40%). V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Okayama (votes: 1 - 50%). V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 1 - 50%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- EH -1 - draw (votes: 0 - 0%) .
- DNB - Okayama (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Okayama (votes: 2 - 66.7%). V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 2.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Okayama is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano
(Knee Injury)
Nagura T.
(Illness)
- There are questionable in V-Varen Nagasaki: Thiago
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 24:21. (average 1.2:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.4:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against V-Varen Nagasaki?
Fagiano Okayama has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has V-Varen Nagasaki won against Fagiano Okayama?
V-Varen Nagasaki has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fagiano Okayama - V-Varen Nagasaki were as follows:
29.09.2024
Fagiano Okayama
-
V-Varen Nagasaki
1:0
12.05.2024
V-Varen Nagasaki
-
Fagiano Okayama
0:0
16.07.2023
Fagiano Okayama
-
V-Varen Nagasaki
2:2
17.05.2023
V-Varen Nagasaki
-
Fagiano Okayama
0:0
17.09.2022
Fagiano Okayama
-
V-Varen Nagasaki
3:0
Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
Latest results of V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:5 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13:8 | 16 |
| 3 | Machida | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13:12 | 15 |
| 4 | Verdy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12:11 | 13 |
| 5 | Urawa Reds | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 6 | Kawasaki Frontale | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 9 | Mito | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 10 | Chiba | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6:14 | 5 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kyoto | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12:9 | 14 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12:8 | 13 |
| 4 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:10 | 13 |
| 5 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12:12 | 13 |
| 6 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 7 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12:10 | 11 |
| 8 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 9 | Okayama | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9:11 | 11 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8:17 | 5 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
