Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellín – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

13/10/2025 at 18:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Palogrande (Manizales).

Primera A - Clausura - Round 15
Referee: Ospina J. (Col)
Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.53	2.46
Ball Possession
54%	46%
Total shots
18	24
Shots on target
5	10
Big Chances
4	3
Corner Kicks
5	3
Passes
80% (292/363)	78% (245/315)
Yellow Cards
4	3
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53	2.46
xG on target (xGOT)
1.29	3.20
Total shots
18	24
Shots on target
5	10
Shots off target
7	9
Blocked Shots
6	5
Shots inside the Box
9	14
Shots outside the Box
9	10
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
4	3
Corner Kicks
5	3
Touches in opposition box
21	22
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
3	2
Free Kicks
12	12
Passes
80% (292/363)	78% (245/315)
Long passes
49% (28/57)	40% (23/57)
Passes in final third
70% (86/123)	61% (59/96)
Crosses
20% (3/15)	36% (4/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.91	1.21
Throw-ins
19	7
Fouls
12	12
Tackles
71% (5/7)	67% (4/6)
Duels won
36	35
Clearances
22	35
Interceptions
10	2
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
5	4
xGOT faced
3.20	1.29
Goals prevented
-1.80	0.29

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 2)
22', 1 - 0, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ⚽, Quinones D. (A),
22', Aguerre W. 🟨,
31', 1 - 1, Leon B. ⚽,
37', Zapata Ramirez J. A. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 2, Leon B. ⚽, Fydriszewski F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
48', Malagon J. 🟨,
56', 1 - 3, Fydriszewski F. ⚽, Leon B. (A),
58', Cardona J. 🟨,
59', Quinones D. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
59', Zuleta M. ↓, Gomez P. ↑,
67', 1 - 4, Berrio L. ⚽, Fydriszewski F. (A),
69', Chaverra F. 🟨,
71', Rojas I. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
71', Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. ↓, Riquett J. ↑,
73', Cardona J. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
79', Serna A. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
79', Chaverra F. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
84', Garcia M. 🟨,
85', Torijano F. 🟨,
87', Berrio L. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
87', Leon B. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
88', 1 - 5, Moreno D. ⚽,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/mr24fu7z

Chances of winning

Once Caldas
25.8%

Draw
31.2%

Independiente Medellín
43.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

30.7%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

30.1%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Once Caldas's form might have worsened.

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente Medellín's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Once Caldas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-5%)

Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.25 ↑ (2.91)	3.29 ↑ (3.03)	2.31 ↓ (2.49)	-2.8% (7.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Once Caldas will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 1.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
Ind Medellín may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Once Caldas has had a series of home games.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.7:1.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Once Caldas won against Independiente Medellín?

Once Caldas has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Once Caldas?

Independiente Medellín has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín were as follows:

19.04.2025 Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas 2:0

28.09.2024 Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín 0:2

16.03.2024 Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas 1:2

01.10.2023 Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín 2:2

11.05.2023 Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas 2:2

Latest results of Once Caldas

09.10.2025 Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional 0:1 ✺

06.10.2025 Deportivo La Equidad - Once Caldas 0:1 ✺

01.10.2025 Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto 4:0 ✺

26.09.2025 Once Caldas - Boyacá Chicó 5:2 ✺

24.09.2025 Once Caldas - Independiente del Valle 0:3 ✺

Latest results of Independiente Medellín

08.10.2025 Rionegro Águilas - Independiente Medellín 2:1 ✺

01.10.2025 Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín 0:3 ✺

27.09.2025 Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín 2:3 ✺

24.09.2025 Independiente Medellín - Independiente Santa Fe 1:2 ✺

21.09.2025 Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla 2:2 ✺

Colombian Primera A Table

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Junior	16	9	4	3	30:19	11	31
2	Bucaramanga	15	9	3	3	26:12	14	30
3	Ind. Medellin	15	9	3	3	33:21	12	30
4	Atl. Nacional	16	7	7	2	27:19	8	28
5	Fortaleza	16	7	7	2	21:16	5	28
6	Llaneros	16	7	4	5	16:14	2	25
7	Deportes Tolima	15	7	2	6	18:14	4	23
8	Santa Fe	15	5	6	4	16:14	2	21
9	Aguilas	16	5	6	5	21:22	-1	21
10	America De Cali	16	5	5	6	16:15	1	20
11	Alianza	16	5	5	6	19:21	-2	20
12	Dep. Cali	16	5	5	6	20:23	-3	20
13	Once Caldas	16	5	4	7	18:23	-5	19
14	Pereira	16	4	6	6	17:19	-2	18
15	U. Magdalena	16	5	3	8	20:26	-6	18
16	Millonarios	15	5	2	8	18:23	-5	17
17	Envigado	16	3	7	6	14:18	-4	16
18	Dep. Pasto	16	2	7	7	19:25	-6	13
19	Chico	16	2	7	7	11:23	-12	13
20	La Equidad	15	2	5	8	9:22	-13	11

Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )