Result
1:5
13/10/2025 at 18:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Clausura - Round 15
- Referee: Ospina J. (Col)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 2.46 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (292/363) | 78% (245/315) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 2.46 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 3.20 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 24 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 14 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (292/363) | 78% (245/315) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 49% (28/57) | 40% (23/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (86/123) | 61% (59/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (3/15) | 36% (4/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 1.21 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 7 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 71% (5/7) | 67% (4/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 22 | 35 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.20 | 1.29 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.80 | 0.29 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 22', 1 - 0, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ⚽, Quinones D. (A),
- 22', Aguerre W. 🟨,
- 31', 1 - 1, Leon B. ⚽,
- 37', Zapata Ramirez J. A. 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 2, Leon B. ⚽, Fydriszewski F. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 3)
- 48', Malagon J. 🟨,
- 56', 1 - 3, Fydriszewski F. ⚽, Leon B. (A),
- 58', Cardona J. 🟨,
- 59', Quinones D. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
- 59', Zuleta M. ↓, Gomez P. ↑,
- 67', 1 - 4, Berrio L. ⚽, Fydriszewski F. (A),
- 69', Chaverra F. 🟨,
- 71', Rojas I. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
- 71', Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. ↓, Riquett J. ↑,
- 73', Cardona J. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
- 79', Serna A. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
- 79', Chaverra F. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
- 84', Garcia M. 🟨,
- 85', Torijano F. 🟨,
- 87', Berrio L. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
- 87', Leon B. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
- 88', 1 - 5, Moreno D. ⚽,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/mr24fu7z
Chances of winning
Once Caldas
25.8% | Draw
31.2% | Independiente Medellín
43.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Once Caldas's form might have worsened.Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente Medellín's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+5.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Once Caldas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-5%)
Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.25 ↑
(2.91) |
3.29 ↑
(3.03) |
2.31 ↓
(2.49) |
-2.8%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Once Caldas will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Once Caldas (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 1.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Ind Medellín may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Once Caldas has had a series of home games.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.7:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Once Caldas won against Independiente Medellín?
Once Caldas has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Once Caldas?
Independiente Medellín has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín were as follows:
19.04.2025
Independiente Medellín
-
Once Caldas
2:0
28.09.2024
Once Caldas
-
Independiente Medellín
0:2
16.03.2024
Independiente Medellín
-
Once Caldas
1:2
01.10.2023
Once Caldas
-
Independiente Medellín
2:2
11.05.2023
Independiente Medellín
-
Once Caldas
2:2
Latest results of Once Caldas
Latest results of Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23:9 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Dep. Pasto | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18:14 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Once Caldas | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 23:13 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 17:15 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 16:6 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Junior | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:16 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | America De Cali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15:8 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Millonarios | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 19:13 | 6 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | Dep. Cali | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 14:11 | 3 | 16 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14:13 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Aguilas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:10 | 1 | 15 |
| 13 | Fortaleza | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13:16 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Santa Fe | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Ind. Medellin | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:15 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | Cucuta | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 16:25 | -9 | 7 |
| 18 | Chico | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:19 | -10 | 7 |
| 19 | Pereira | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 10:22 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 | Alianza | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5:19 | -14 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
