Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellín – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

02/04/2026 at 21:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Palogrande (Manizales).

Primera A - Apertura - Round 15
Referee: Ospina J. (Col)
Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.63	0.66
Ball possession
54%	46%
Total shots
13	15
Shots on target
1	3
Big chances
0	0
Corner kicks
3	5
Passes
84% (337/403)	82% (276/338)
Yellow cards
3	3
Expected goals (xG)
0.63	0.66
xG on target (xGOT)
0.69	0.24
Total shots
13	15
Shots on target
1	3
Shots off target
7	7
Blocked shots
5	5
Shots inside the box
3	6
Shots outside the box
10	9
Hit the woodwork
0	1
Big chances
0	0
Corner kicks
3	5
Touches in opposition box
8	19
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	3
Free kicks
9	8
Passes
84% (337/403)	82% (276/338)
Long passes
39% (21/54)	48% (15/31)
Passes in final third
72% (71/99)	70% (64/91)
Crosses
25% (4/16)	15% (2/13)
Expected assists (xA)
0.43	1.06
Throw ins
24	17
Fouls
8	9
Tackles
80% (4/5)	86% (12/14)
Duels won
29	36
Clearances
24	19
Interceptions
11	7
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
3	1
xGOT faced
0.24	0.69
Goals prevented
-0.76	-0.31

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Larrosa E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Moreno D. ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
46', Mena Perea E. ↓, Catano D. ↑,
46', Tamayo K. ↓, Patino J. ↑,
63', Serna A. 🟨,
67', Sanchez L. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
67', Quinones D. ↓, Zuleta M. ↑,
68', Montano J. ↓, Yony Gonzalez ↑,
68', Fabra F. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
78', Cardona J. ↓, Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. ↑,
79', Serna A. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
81', 1 - 0, Zuleta M. ⚽, Cuesta Santos J. D. (A),
84', 1 - 1, Perlaza B. ⚽, Catano D. (A),
86', Catano D. 🟨,
88', Zuleta M. 🟨,
90', Quinones J. ↓, Roa A. ↑,
90', Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 🟨,
90+4', Mejia R. 🟨,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/3jk8ecuz

Chances of winning

Once Caldas
40.8%

Draw
28.6%

Independiente Medellín
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

24.7%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

24.5%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-1%)

Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.06)	3.27 ↓ (3.78)	3.06 ↓ (3.11)	6.5% (7.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín?

Users Predictions: Once Caldas will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 14).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 1.
Once Caldas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Ind Medellín is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Once Caldas might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:33. (average 1.3:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:18. (average 1.4:2).

How many head-to-head matches has Once Caldas won against Independiente Medellín?

Once Caldas has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Once Caldas?

Independiente Medellín has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín were as follows:

13.10.2025 Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín 1:5

19.04.2025 Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas 2:0

28.09.2024 Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín 0:2

16.03.2024 Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas 1:2

01.10.2023 Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín 2:2

Latest results of Once Caldas

30.03.2026 Llaneros SA - Once Caldas 1:1 ✺

21.03.2026 Once Caldas - Millonarios 1:4 ✺

18.03.2026 Atlético Bucaramanga - Once Caldas 1:1 ✺

13.03.2026 Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto 4:2 ✺

06.03.2026 Deportivo Cali - Once Caldas 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Independiente Medellín

30.03.2026 Independiente Medellín - América de Cali 2:1 ✺

23.03.2026 Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín 2:1 ✺

19.03.2026 Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla 2:0 ✺

15.03.2026 Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Medellín 1:2 ✺

12.03.2026 Independiente Medellín - Juventud de Las Piedras 2:1 ✺

Colombian Primera A Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Atl. Nacional ✔	15	11	1	3	30:11	19	34
2	Dep. Pasto	15	8	4	3	21:17	4	28
3	Deportes Tolima	15	7	6	2	24:13	11	27
4	Once Caldas	15	6	7	2	26:19	7	25
5	Junior	15	8	1	6	21:20	1	25
6	America De Cali	15	7	3	5	19:12	7	24
7	Dep. Cali	15	6	4	5	17:13	4	22
8	Aguilas	15	6	4	5	16:17	-1	22
9	Inter Bogotu00e1	15	5	7	3	18:20	-2	22
10	Millonarios	15	6	3	6	25:17	8	21
11	Llaneros	15	4	8	3	16:14	2	20
12	Bucaramanga	15	4	7	4	18:14	4	19
13	Santa Fe	15	4	7	4	18:19	-1	19
14	Ind. Medellin	14	4	5	5	19:19	0	17
15	Fortaleza	15	3	7	5	17:23	-6	16
16	Cucuta	16	3	6	7	21:27	-6	15
17	Alianza	15	3	6	6	10:22	-12	15
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	16	4	2	10	14:28	-14	14
19	Chico	14	3	2	9	11:21	-10	11
20	Pereira	15	0	6	9	14:29	-15	6

Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )

Clinched Spots for Teams

Atl. Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )