Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

10/08/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Toyota Stadium (Toyota City).

J1 League - Round 25
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.43	1.05
Ball Possession
41%	59%
Total shots
12	8
Shots on target
2	5
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
6	6
Passes
63% (145/231)	71% (242/341)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43	1.05
xG on target (xGOT)
1.09	1.14
Total shots
12	8
Shots on target
2	5
Shots off target
8	2
Blocked Shots
2	1
Shots inside the Box
12	8
Shots outside the Box
0	0
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
6	6
Touches in opposition box
21	19
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
3	2
Free Kicks
17	10
Passes
63% (145/231)	71% (242/341)
Long passes
39% (27/69)	34% (20/58)
Passes in final third
52% (49/95)	65% (82/127)
Crosses
38% (8/21)	24% (4/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.22	0.72
Throw-ins
17	20
Fouls
11	19
Tackles
78% (7/9)	80% (8/10)
Duels won
65	35
Clearances
36	26
Interceptions
8	6
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	1
xGOT faced
1.14	1.09
Goals prevented
-0.86	0.09

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Yamagishi Y. 🟨,
45+2', Hirato T. 🟨,
45+4', Morishima T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', Takeda S. ↓, Leo Gomes ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Junker K. ⚽,
66', Hirato T. ↓, Nakano R. ↑,
66', Sugai H. ↓, Sato K. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Rafael Elias ⚽,
73', Morishima T. ↓, Shiihashi K. ↑,
73', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
74', Junker K. ↓, Kimura Y. ↑,
75', Fukuoka S. 🟨,
81', Mori S. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
81', 1 - 2, Fukuda S. ⚽,
83', Nakayama K. ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
90+4', Rafael Elias ↓, Nagasawa S. ↑,
90+4', Fukuoka S. ↓, Matsuda T. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Nagoya Grampus
36.7%

Draw
29.4%

Kyoto Sanga
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

29.4%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

31%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Kyoto Sanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.47)	3.2 ↓ (3.21)	2.78 ↓ (2.93)	6.4% (5.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Kyoto will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 16.1% – 74.9%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 4).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 1.
Recent performances by Nagoya have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Kyoto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Nagoya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Kyoto: Yonemoto T. (Foot Injury)
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.5:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 2:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Nagoya Grampus won against Kyoto Sanga?

Nagoya Grampus has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Kyoto Sanga won against Nagoya Grampus?

Kyoto Sanga has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga were as follows:

11.05.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Nagoya Grampus 1:1

07.08.2024 Kyoto Sanga - Nagoya Grampus 3:2

26.05.2024 Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga 1:1

16.07.2023 Kyoto Sanga - Nagoya Grampus 2:1

25.02.2023 Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga 1:0

Latest results of Nagoya Grampus

20.07.2025 Yokohama F. Marinos - Nagoya Grampus 3:0 ✺

16.07.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Roasso Kumamoto 2:1 ✺

05.07.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo Verdy 0:0 ✺

21.06.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse 1:1 ✺

15.06.2025 Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Kyoto Sanga

06.08.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:0 ✺

21.07.2025 Avispa Fukuoka - Kyoto Sanga 2:2 ✺

16.07.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Yokohama FC 4:3 ✺

05.07.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata 2:1 ✺

21.06.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Kyoto Sanga 3:3 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	33	20	5	8	52:28	24	65
2	Kyoto	33	17	9	7	57:35	22	60
3	Kashiwa Reysol	33	16	12	5	48:33	15	60
4	Vissel Kobe	33	18	6	9	43:28	15	60
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	33	17	7	9	39:23	16	58
6	Machida	33	16	7	10	49:35	14	55
7	Kawasaki Frontale	33	14	11	8	60:45	15	53
8	Urawa Reds	33	14	10	9	40:32	8	52
9	Gamba Osaka	33	15	5	13	46:47	-1	50
10	Cerezo Osaka	33	11	10	12	50:49	1	43
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	33	10	11	12	35:39	-4	41
12	Okayama	33	11	8	14	29:35	-6	41
13	FC Tokyo	33	11	8	14	36:46	-10	41
14	Avispa Fukuoka	33	10	10	13	32:37	-5	40
15	Nagoya Grampus	33	10	9	14	40:48	-8	39
16	Verdy	33	10	9	14	21:35	-14	39
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	33	8	7	18	32:44	-12	31
18	Yokohama FC	33	8	7	18	21:37	-16	31
19	Shonan Bellmare	33	6	7	20	28:57	-29	25
20	Albirex Niigata	33	4	10	19	30:55	-25	22

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      Relegation ~ J2 League