Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

10/08/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Toyota Stadium (Toyota City).

J1 League - Round 25
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.43	1.05
Ball Possession
41%	59%
Total shots
12	8
Shots on target
2	5
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
6	6
Passes
63% (145/231)	71% (242/341)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43	1.05
xG on target (xGOT)
1.09	1.14
Total shots
12	8
Shots on target
2	5
Shots off target
8	2
Blocked Shots
2	1
Shots inside the Box
12	8
Shots outside the Box
0	0
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
2	2
Corner Kicks
6	6
Touches in opposition box
21	19
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
3	2
Free Kicks
17	10
Passes
63% (145/231)	71% (242/341)
Long passes
39% (27/69)	34% (20/58)
Passes in final third
52% (49/95)	65% (82/127)
Crosses
38% (8/21)	24% (4/17)
Expected assists (xA)
1.22	0.72
Throw-ins
17	20
Fouls
11	19
Tackles
78% (7/9)	80% (8/10)
Duels won
65	35
Clearances
36	26
Interceptions
8	6
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	1
xGOT faced
1.14	1.09
Goals prevented
-0.86	0.09

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Yamagishi Y. 🟨,
45+2', Hirato T. 🟨,
45+4', Morishima T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', Takeda S. ↓, Leo Gomes ↑,
61', 1 - 0, Junker K. ⚽,
66', Hirato T. ↓, Nakano R. ↑,
66', Sugai H. ↓, Sato K. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Rafael Elias ⚽,
73', Morishima T. ↓, Shiihashi K. ↑,
73', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
74', Junker K. ↓, Kimura Y. ↑,
75', Fukuoka S. 🟨,
81', Mori S. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
81', 1 - 2, Fukuda S. ⚽,
83', Nakayama K. ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
90+4', Rafael Elias ↓, Nagasawa S. ↑,
90+4', Fukuoka S. ↓, Matsuda T. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Nagoya Grampus
36.7%

Draw
29.4%

Kyoto Sanga
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

29.4%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

31%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Kyoto Sanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.47)	3.2 ↓ (3.21)	2.78 ↓ (2.93)	6.4% (5.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Kyoto will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 16.1% – 74.9%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 and 4).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 1.
Recent performances by Nagoya have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Kyoto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Nagoya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Kyoto: Yonemoto T. (Foot Injury)
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 1.5:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:4. (average 2:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Nagoya Grampus won against Kyoto Sanga?

Nagoya Grampus has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Kyoto Sanga won against Nagoya Grampus?

Kyoto Sanga has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga were as follows:

11.05.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Nagoya Grampus 1:1

07.08.2024 Kyoto Sanga - Nagoya Grampus 3:2

26.05.2024 Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga 1:1

16.07.2023 Kyoto Sanga - Nagoya Grampus 2:1

25.02.2023 Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga 1:0

Latest results of Nagoya Grampus

20.07.2025 Yokohama F. Marinos - Nagoya Grampus 3:0 ✺

16.07.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Roasso Kumamoto 2:1 ✺

05.07.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo Verdy 0:0 ✺

21.06.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse 1:1 ✺

15.06.2025 Vissel Kobe - Nagoya Grampus 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Kyoto Sanga

06.08.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:0 ✺

21.07.2025 Avispa Fukuoka - Kyoto Sanga 2:2 ✺

16.07.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Yokohama FC 4:3 ✺

05.07.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata 2:1 ✺

21.06.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Kyoto Sanga 3:3 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kyoto	29	16	7	6	53:31	22	55
2	Kashima Antlers	29	17	4	8	44:27	17	55
3	Kashiwa Reysol	29	15	9	5	42:28	14	54
4	Vissel Kobe	30	16	6	8	37:26	11	54
5	Machida	30	15	6	9	46:32	14	51
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	30	15	6	9	35:21	14	51
7	Kawasaki Frontale	29	13	9	7	53:38	15	48
8	Urawa Reds	29	13	8	8	39:31	8	47
9	Gamba Osaka	30	13	4	13	39:44	-5	43
10	Cerezo Osaka	29	11	9	9	46:41	5	42
11	Okayama	29	11	6	12	26:29	-3	39
12	Avispa Fukuoka	29	9	10	10	30:32	-2	37
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	29	9	9	11	32:36	-4	36
14	FC Tokyo	29	9	7	13	31:42	-11	34
15	Nagoya Grampus	29	8	8	13	35:42	-7	32
16	Verdy	29	8	8	13	16:29	-13	32
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	29	6	7	16	26:38	-12	25
18	Shonan Bellmare	29	6	7	16	26:50	-24	25
19	Yokohama FC	29	6	6	17	19:36	-17	24
20	Albirex Niigata	29	4	8	17	27:49	-22	20

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League