Result
2:1 penalties
01/03/2026 at 00:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 4
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.78 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (257/354) | 81% (413/510) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.20 | 0.78 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.29 | 0.18 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (257/354) | 81% (413/510) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 35% (22/62) | 45% (34/75) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (100/137) | 67% (84/125) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (8/30) | 43% (6/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.91 | 0.84 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 36% (4/11) | 38% (5/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.18 | 1.29 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.82 | 0.29 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 48', 0 - 1, Yamagishi Y. ⚽, Nakayama K. (A),
- 60', Kimura T. ↓, Kawano K. ↑,
- 60', Fujii K. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
- 64', Mori S. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
- 64', Marcus Vinicius ↓, Nagai K. ↑,
- 65', Kimura Y. ↓, Asano Y. ↑,
- 71', Lucao ↓, Ichimi K. ↑,
- 77', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Shiihashi K. ↑,
- 79', 1 - 1, Kawano K. ⚽, Kamiya Yuta (A),
- 84', Hara T. ↓, Sugiura S. ↑,
- 89', Asano Y. 🟨,
- 90', Esaka A. ↓, Takahashi A. ↑,
- 90', Yamane T. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
- Penalties (5 - 4)
- 1, Inagaki S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Kamiya Yuta (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Takamine T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Ichimi K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Fujii H. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Matsumoto M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Shiihashi K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Shirai K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Nagai K. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Kawano K. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Fagiano Okayama
29.9% | Draw
30.8% | Nagoya Grampus
39.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)
Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.13 ↑
(2.99) |
3.05 ↓
(3.06) |
2.39 ↑
(2.39) |
6.7%
(8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Okayama (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Okayama (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Nagoya (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)).
- Nagoya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Nagoya: Koyamatsu T.
(Injury)
Mateus
(Injury)
Morishima T.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Okayama: Fujita I.
(Injury)
Nishikawa J.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Nagoya: Izumi R.
(Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Okayama won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Okayama won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Nagoya Grampus?
Fagiano Okayama has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nagoya Grampus won against Fagiano Okayama?
Nagoya Grampus has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus were as follows:
13.09.2025
Fagiano Okayama
-
Nagoya Grampus
0:1
06.05.2025
Nagoya Grampus
-
Fagiano Okayama
0:0
Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
Latest results of Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | 10 |
| 2 | Machida | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:8 | 9 |
| 3 | Verdy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10:7 | 8 |
| 4 | Kawasaki Frontale | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:7 | 7 |
| 5 | Urawa Reds | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Tokyo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 7 | Mito | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5:8 | 3 |
| 10 | Chiba | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kyoto | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6:3 | 8 |
| 4 | Gamba Osaka | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 5 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 6 | Nagoya Grampus | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 6 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 8 | Cerezo Osaka | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 9 | Okayama | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:7 | 2 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
