Result
1:1
29/10/2025 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 10
- Referee: Pezzuto I. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.67 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 44% | 56% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (308/395) | 80% (402/505) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.48 | 0.67 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 1.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (308/395) | 80% (402/505) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (18/54) | 42% (30/71) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (51/85) | 56% (63/113) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 47% (8/17) | 7% (1/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.30 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (3/4) | 45% (5/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 39 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 28 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.01 | 1.34 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.01 | 0.34 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 8', Belli F. 🟨,
- 17', 1 - 0, Lapadula G. ⚽, Di Serio G. (A),
- 30', Fusi P. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 55', Favale G. ↓, Varas K. ↑,
- 55', Fusi P. ↓, Capelli A. ↑,
- 59', Perrotta M. 🟨,
- 66', 1 - 1, Lasagna K. ⚽,
- 68', Crisetig L. ↓, Harder J. ↑,
- 68', Bortolussi M. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
- 71', Nagy A. 🟨,
- 75', Belli F. ↓, Faedo C. ↑,
- 76', Beruatto P. ↓, Candelari P. ↑,
- 80', Di Serio G. ↓, Soleri E. ↑,
- 81', Nagy A. ↓, Cassata F. ↑,
- 83', Barreca A. 🟨,
- 86', Esposito Sa. ↓, Kouda R. ↑,
- 86', Vignali L. ↓, Candela A. ↑,
- 90+4', Harder J. 🟨,
- 90+4', Varas K. 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/45cfcxk6
Chances of winning
Spezia
49.5% | Draw
29.1% | Padova
21.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Spezia - Padova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.9 ↑
(1.82) |
3.24 ↓
(3.32) |
4.25 ↓
(4.26) |
7.2%
(8.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Spezia - Padova?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Padova will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 46.1% – 91.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Spezia (votes: 2 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.25 - Padova (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Spezia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Padova (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 1.
- Recent form of Spezia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Padova has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Spezia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Spezia is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F.
(Broken Leg)
Zurkowski S.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Padova: Baselli D.
(Muscle Injury)
Papu Gomez
(Suspended)
Pastina C.
(Knock)
Silva J.
(Health problems)
- There are questionable in Spezia: Artistico G.
(Inactive)
Comotto C.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Padova: Fusi P.
(Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.4:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1.3:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Padova?
Spezia has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Spezia?
Padova has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Spezia - Padova were as follows:
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Frosinone | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 38:18 | 20 | 42 |
| 2 | Venezia | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 37:16 | 21 | 41 |
| 3 | Monza | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 29:17 | 12 | 38 |
| 4 | Palermo | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 30:14 | 16 | 37 |
| 5 | Cesena | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 27:22 | 5 | 34 |
| 6 | Modena | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 28:17 | 11 | 32 |
| 7 | Catanzaro | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27:24 | 3 | 31 |
| 8 | Juve Stabia | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22:22 | 0 | 30 |
| 9 | Empoli | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 26:25 | 1 | 27 |
| 10 | Carrarese | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 27:30 | -3 | 26 |
| 11 | Padova | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20:22 | -2 | 25 |
| 12 | Avellino | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 24:33 | -9 | 25 |
| 13 | Sudtirol | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 19:22 | -3 | 22 |
| 14 | Reggiana | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 24:30 | -6 | 20 |
| 15 | Entella | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 18:27 | -9 | 20 |
| 16 | Mantova | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18:29 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Sampdoria | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 20:28 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 | Spezia | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18:28 | -10 | 17 |
| 19 | Bari | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 16:30 | -14 | 17 |
| 20 | Pescara | 20 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 25:39 | -14 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
