Result
1:2
04/10/2025 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 7
- Referee: Marcenaro M. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping |
 Italy | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 United-kingdom | DCTV |
 Usa | DCTV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.59 | 1.21 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (341/415) | 78% (308/396) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.59 | 1.21 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.05 | 2.04 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (341/415) | 78% (308/396) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (37/66) | 42% (20/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (87/121) | 68% (77/114) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 9% (3/33) | 19% (4/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (9/13) | 86% (6/7) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 36 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.04 | 2.05 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.04 | 2.05 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 22', Bani M. ↓, Diakite S. ↑,
- 29', Mateju A. 🟨,
- 33', Diakite S. 🟨,
- 42', 0 - 1, Pohjanpalo J. ⚽, Le Douaron J. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Diakite S. ↓, Gyasi E. ↑,
- 58', 0 - 2, Pierozzi N. ⚽, Veroli D. (A),
- 63', Vignali L. ↓, Candela A. ↑,
- 63', Soleri E. ↓, Artistico G. ↑,
- 66', Blin A. 🟨,
- 69', Palumbo A. ↓, Segre J. ↑,
- 70', Augello T. ↓, Bereszynski B. ↑,
- 70', Aurelio G. ↓, Beruatto P. ↑,
- 70', Cassata F. ↓, Comotto C. ↑,
- 73', Veroli D. 🟨,
- 83', Gomes C. ↓, Giovane S. ↑,
- 83', Mateju A. ↓, Vlahovic V. ↑,
- 89', Esposito Sa. (Pen),
- 90', 1 - 2, Giovane S. (Own goal),
Chances of winning
Spezia
29.3% | Draw
32.6% | Palermo
38.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Spezia's form might have worsened.Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palermo's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+12.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Spezia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-7.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palermo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Spezia - Palermo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.62 ↑
(2.24) |
3.12 ↓
(3.39) |
2.65 ↓
(3.06) |
-2.6%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Spezia - Palermo?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Palermo will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palermo: 11.9% – 76.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Palermo (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 1.
- Spezia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Palermo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Spezia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Spezia has had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F.
(Injury)
Hristov P.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Palermo: Bardi F.
(Inactive)
Ceccaroni P.
(Red Card)
Gomis A.
(Arm Injury)
Ranocchia F.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Spezia: Candelari P.
(Muscle Injury)
Zurkowski S.
(Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Palermo?
Spezia has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palermo won against Spezia?
Palermo has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Spezia - Palermo were as follows:
09.02.2025
Spezia
-
Palermo
2:2
01.12.2024
Palermo
-
Spezia
2:0
01.05.2024
Spezia
-
Palermo
1:0
23.10.2023
Palermo
-
Spezia
2:2
Latest results of Palermo
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Modena | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14:4 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | Palermo | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10:4 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:8 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Cesena | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Monza | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Venezia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11:6 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:8 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Reggiana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:11 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Avellino | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Carrarese | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 13:9 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Sudtirol | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Empoli | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:14 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Entella | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Padova | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Catanzaro | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 7:8 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Pescara | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13:16 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Bari | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8:15 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8:13 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | Mantova | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 5 |
| 20 | Spezia | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5:13 | -8 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
