Result
1:0
18/01/2026 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 20
- Referee: Massimi L. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Israel | 5 LIVE Israel |
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 Russia | Telekanal Futbol |
 Slovenia | Sport TV3 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5 |
 United-kingdom | DCTV |
 Usa | DCTV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.98 | 0.94 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 48% | 52% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (249/323) | 75% (269/359) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.98 | 0.94 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.19 | 1.04 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (249/323) | 75% (269/359) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 34% (20/58) | 41% (22/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (76/111) | 62% (48/78) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (9/25) | 24% (5/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.41 | 0.73 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (8/15) | 71% (12/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 75 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 27 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.04 | 1.19 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.04 | 0.19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 1', 1 - 0, Segre J. ⚽, Pohjanpalo J. (A),
- 17', Mateju A. 🟨,
- 40', Gyasi E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Gyasi E. ↓, Le Douaron J. ↑,
- 46', Veroli D. ↓, Ceccaroni P. ↑,
- 49', Sernicola L. 🟨,
- 54', Bereszynski B. 🟨,
- 58', Bereszynski B. ↓, Peda P. ↑,
- 59', Soleri E. 🟨,
- 61', Comotto C. ↓, Romano A. ↑,
- 62', Di Serio G. ↓, Artistico G. ↑,
- 62', Valoti M. ↓, Verde D. ↑,
- 68', Sernicola L. ↓, Aurelio G. ↑,
- 77', Palumbo A. ↓, Gomes C. ↑,
- 84', Adamo E. ↓, Candela A. ↑,
- 85', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Corona G. ↑,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/324tvzy6
Chances of winning
Palermo
56.3% | Draw
25.1% | Spezia
18.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+1%)
Palermo - Spezia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.66 ↓
(1.73) |
3.69 ↑
(3.63) |
4.94 ↑
(4.58) |
7.7%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Palermo - Spezia?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Palermo will win
(11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Palermo will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 18 in the zone Relegation).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 2.
- Palermo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- In recent matches, Spezia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Palermo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Palermo is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F.
(Injury)
Sarr M.
(Ankle Injury)
Zurkowski S.
(Knee Injury)
- We predict that Palermo will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.2:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Palermo won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Palermo won against Spezia?
Palermo has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Palermo?
Spezia has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Palermo - Spezia were as follows:
04.10.2025
Spezia
-
Palermo
1:2
09.02.2025
Spezia
-
Palermo
2:2
01.12.2024
Palermo
-
Spezia
2:0
01.05.2024
Spezia
-
Palermo
1:0
23.10.2023
Palermo
-
Spezia
2:2
Latest results of Palermo
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 73:29 | 44 | 78 |
| 2 | Monza | 36 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 57:27 | 30 | 75 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 36 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 70:34 | 36 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 36 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 58:29 | 29 | 69 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 36 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 58:45 | 13 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 47:34 | 13 | 52 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 36 | 11 | 17 | 8 | 43:43 | 0 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 42:54 | -12 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 45 |
| 10 | Carrarese | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 43 |
| 11 | Mantova | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 42:50 | -8 | 43 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 34:47 | -13 | 41 |
| 13 | Sudtirol | 36 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 37:46 | -9 | 40 |
| 14 | Padova | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 34:46 | -12 | 40 |
| 15 | Entella | 36 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 34:48 | -14 | 39 |
| 16 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 44:52 | -8 | 37 |
| 17 | Pescara | 36 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 50:64 | -14 | 34 |
| 18 | Bari | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 33:58 | -25 | 34 |
| 19 | Reggiana | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34:54 | -20 | 34 |
| 20 | Spezia | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 40:56 | -16 | 33 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
